Do I need more RBIs?

[moose]

This isn't a "rate my team" question. It's more a question of what I am missing (questioning whether I need to be more competitive in certain categories to actually be competitive in the league). I've provided as many numbers as I could to help you give me a concrete answer. At the end of this post, you will find my team listing and a series of league projections.

 

My League's Parameters: 12 teams, Daily H2H

(R,RBI,HR,SB,BA,OBP,SLG x W,SV,ERA,K,WHIP,K:BB,QS)

 

I did a rudimentary analysis of my team's stats largely based on 2008 player projections (anticipating criticism, I realize the unreliability in these numbers; I'm merely using them as a rough benchmark -- I also calculated my entire league's projections).

 

My team AVG contribution per player is currently predicted to be:

90.11 Runs (811 total)

24.56 HR (221 total)

86.67 RBI (780 total)

18.11 SB (163 total)

.293 team BA

.371 team OBP

.500 team SLG

.871 team OPS

 

I recently made a trade for Jose Reyes (gave up Carlos Guillen, Noah Lowry and Jermaine Dye) which boosted my SB numbers greatly (+7.2 per player) and raised my Rs (+3.7 per player), but at the cost of -5 RBIs per player and -1 HR per player (Reyes and Jack Cust might offset this loss if they hit a few extra dingers this year) -- my team BA, OBP and SLG changed by insignificant amounts (-.0014 in BA and OBP, -.008 in SLG)

 

At this point, my main concern is my lack luster RBIs. I realize it's just one category, but do I need to add anything? At what cost? I assume that I have an unnecessary abundance of SBs.

 

I currently have a trade on the table from a guy lacking power in his OF2 and OF3 -- he is offering Holliday for Carlos Lee and someone like Ankiel. Of course, if this trade is ultimately accepted by him, I will too (esp. since Ankiel is just sitting on my bench).

 

Additionally, should I have any concern about my pitching staff? My intuition says no, but I don't have the available tools to analyze pitching (DIPS aren't my thing)

 

Below is information on my league to help you make a better quantifiable decision.

 

 

My Team

C-Jorge Posada

1B-Ryan Garko

2B-Jeff Kent

SS-Jose Reyes

3B-David Wright

OF-Grady Sizemore

OF-Carlos Lee

OF-Matt Kemp

UTIL-Jack Cust

BN-Matt Diaz

BN-Joey Votto

BN-Rick Ankiel

 

SP-Cole Hamels

SP-Aaron Harang

SP-Rich Hill

SP-Fransisco Liriano

SP-Derek Lowe

SP-Zach Greinke

SP-Justin Duchscherer

RP-Brian Wilson

RP-Joakim Soria

RP-Heath Bell

 

Here are the league's projected offensive stats per team.

 

My team's 2008 numbers. The variance here refers to the same player's 2007 output. The numbers seem to indicate that I may have overbid for my team (negative numbers indicate a projected regression)

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/MyTeam_SeasonalVariance.jpg

 

Here are the other team's projections. A negative variance indicates that I have an advantage over that team. Positive variance indicates that they have an advantage over me.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/Team1.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/Team2.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team3.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team4.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team5.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team6.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team7.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team8.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/team9.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/Team10.jpg

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y80/Vader5333/Team11.jpg

 

 

Any and all responses are greatly appreciated. Thank you

[cheapseats]

Looking at starters only, and using the PECOTA PFM as of Tuesday, your team offense would rank third in that league. Aside from Sheffield, PECOTA really likes PURDUE. That team is projected to finish 10 points ahead of yours. KAPLAN'S BRO is projected to finish 3.5 points ahead of you.

 

Here's your projected finish in each category:

 

HR: 7

RBI: 7

R: 9

SB: 12

AVG: 7

OBP: 11

SLG: 10

[moose]

I actually just made this trade:

 

Rick Ankiel, Liriano, Jeff Kent, Jose Reyes, Carlos Lee and Derek Lowe

 

for

 

Matt Holliday, Erik Bedard, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera and Roy Oswalt

 

I think my new pitching staff is unbeatable, personally -- I'll be OK in SVs, but the rest is pretty set

 

I don't know WHY they accepted this trade, but I'm not complaining...how does this chance PECOTA projections? Also, where did you fig. this info out?

 

Thanks for the help!

[cheapseats]

...how does this chance PECOTA projections? Also, where did you fig. this info out?

 

Thanks for the help!

 

Not sure how it changes things yet, but I can look at it later tonight. You might want to send a PM to remind me.