Will Soriano ever be healthy?

[seanimal]

Now the guy's legs are going and we're facing 7 years of this contract? It's all fine & good to say he'll be good as long as he continues to hit. I get that. I think it's far from certain he'll continue to hit, however.

 

All of this because he's unlikely to ever steal 40 bases in a single season again.

 

LOL. You're right.

 

It's not just this. I'm projecting some of my other disappointments with Sori on to this recent story.

 

Such as?

 

that's between him and sori

 

IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN

[TruffleShuffle]

But the Cubs don't have a seemingly unlimited budget like the Yanks or Red Sox do. There are budget concerns, and I'm afraid that several years down the road Sori's contract will handcuff us to the point where we won't be able to sign or trade for key pieces of the team.

 

i didn't mention the yankees, and the red sox' budget isn't as unlimited as you think it is. they do have a very high payroll; however, they would not be able to afford all the guys like manny, j.d. drew (not worth anywhere close to $14M per year), ortiz ($13M per), lowell ($12.5M per), varitek ($10M per), beckett ($10M per), lugo ($9M per) and daisuke ($8.5M/$17M per, depending on how you think about it) is because they also have guys like youkilis, pedroia, ellsbury, buchholz and several bullpen arms who are productive players at or near the major league minimum.

 

same with the dodgers, who are more on par with the cubs as far as revenue/payroll. the pierre contract is abominable; they're also flushing money down the toilet on nomar and jason schmidt. but again, the dodgers have mined very good prospects out of their farm system like matt kemp, russell martin, jonathan broxton, andre ethier, james loney, chad billingsley, andy laroche and (soon) clayton kershaw. so they can handle the bad contracts that EVERY good team inevitably has, because they also have the ability to generate their own young talent. you'd be hard-pressed to find a team in the top 10 payrolls that doesn't have a contract that is either bad or has become bad as a player aged.

[jersey cubs fan]

But the Cubs don't have a seemingly unlimited budget like the Yanks or Red Sox do. There are budget concerns, and I'm afraid that several years down the road Sori's contract will handcuff us to the point where we won't be able to sign or trade for key pieces of the team.

 

i didn't mention the yankees, and the red sox' budget isn't as unlimited as you think it is. they do have a very high payroll; however, they would not be able to afford all the guys like manny, j.d. drew (not worth anywhere close to $14M per year), ortiz ($13M per), lowell ($12.5M per), varitek ($10M per), beckett ($10M per), lugo ($9M per) and daisuke ($8.5M/$17M per, depending on how you think about it) is because they also have guys like youkilis, pedroia, ellsbury, buchholz and several bullpen arms who are productive players at or near the major league minimum.

 

same with the dodgers, who are more on par with the cubs as far as revenue/payroll. the pierre contract is abominable; they're also flushing money down the toilet on nomar and jason schmidt. but again, the dodgers have mined very good prospects out of their farm system like matt kemp, russell martin, jonathan broxton, andre ethier, james loney, chad billingsley, andy laroche and (soon) clayton kershaw. so they can handle the bad contracts that EVERY good team inevitably has, because they also have the ability to generate their own young talent. you'd be hard-pressed to find a team in the top 10 payrolls that doesn't have a contract that is either bad or has become bad as a player aged.

 

But there's also a difference between a bad contract, and a laughable one like Soriano has. Wasting $10-14m per for a few years isn't the same as throwing $18m per at a player who is going to be as one dimensionally weak as Soriano is going to be in a couple years.

[Soul]

Now the guy's legs are going and we're facing 7 years of this contract? It's all fine & good to say he'll be good as long as he continues to hit. I get that. I think it's far from certain he'll continue to hit, however.

 

All of this because he's unlikely to ever steal 40 bases in a single season again.

 

LOL. You're right.

 

It's not just this. I'm projecting some of my other disappointments with Sori on to this recent story.

 

Such as?

 

Such as hitting 13 fewer HRs than he did his last year with the Nats, and 20 points lower in OBP.

 

Such as coming up with only half the BB he did with the Nats in '06 (which would have greatly improved his OBP, of course).

[TruffleShuffle]

But there's also a difference between a bad contract, and a laughable one like Soriano has. Wasting $10-14m per for a few years isn't the same as throwing $18m per at a player who is going to be as one dimensionally weak as Soriano is going to be in a couple years.

 

you're going to be flushing as much money down the toilet per year on a player like pierre or drew as you are on soriano until the last couple of years of his contract.

[seanimal]

But there's also a difference between a bad contract, and a laughable one like Soriano has. Wasting $10-14m per for a few years isn't the same as throwing $18m per at a player who is going to be as one dimensionally weak as Soriano is going to be in a couple years.

 

you're going to be flushing as much money down the toilet per year on a player like pierre or drew as you are on soriano until the last couple of years of his contract.

 

That doesn't make the practice any less ridiculous.

[jersey cubs fan]

But there's also a difference between a bad contract, and a laughable one like Soriano has. Wasting $10-14m per for a few years isn't the same as throwing $18m per at a player who is going to be as one dimensionally weak as Soriano is going to be in a couple years.

 

you're going to be flushing as much money down the toilet per year on a player like pierre or drew as you are on soriano until the last couple of years of his contract.

 

That's the point though. $18m per is bad enough. 8 years is where it kills you. The Cubs can live with it right now, only because of how much their payroll has skyrocketted. Years 6-8 are really going to hurt.

[Sammy Sofa]

Now the guy's legs are going and we're facing 7 years of this contract? It's all fine & good to say he'll be good as long as he continues to hit. I get that. I think it's far from certain he'll continue to hit, however.

 

All of this because he's unlikely to ever steal 40 bases in a single season again.

 

LOL. You're right.

 

It's not just this. I'm projecting some of my other disappointments with Sori on to this recent story.

 

Such as?

 

Such as hitting 13 fewer HRs than he did his last year with the Nats, and 20 points lower in OBP.

 

Such as coming up with only half the BB he did with the Nats in '06 (which would have greatly improved his OBP, of course).

 

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

[seanimal]

regression to the mean

[Clem Fandango]

Keep in mind, financial wise, that as Soriano's contract gets bigger throughout the years, and begins to handcuff us, there are other players making big money whose contracts would likely come off the books. Will people expect Lee to be back in a Cub uniform in 2011? If not, that;s $13 mil off the table. Another $10 mil when Lilly leaves with him. The next year the Cubs might buy out Ramirez's contract at $2 mil and get the $19.25 mil they would owe him that year out of their hands. While the Soriano contract isn't helping much, you gotta keep in mind that as his paycheck grows, a lot of players might be gone opening up money for other players and/or spots in the field for prospects (I would assume Vitters will taker over to A-Ram assuming he doesn't bust, same for Colvin and Kosuke, whatever etc.)

 

In the end, the audacity of his contract and the prospect of it handcuffing the Cubs is really contingent on who exactly buys the Cubs and how deep they are willing to delve into their pockets. If we get a conservative douche, then we're probably screwed. If we get a Mark Cuban type who does what it takes to win, then who cares? I ultimately don't think it will be as nightmarish as people say as far as hurting team finances are concerned. It will only hurt when we're paying him $18 mil for putting up half the numbers he put up last year in his old age.

[jersey cubs fan]

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

 

Not even close to the same.

 

Dlee's fluke 2005 was unlike anything he'd come close to in his career. Soriano flirted with 40/40 on a regular basis.

 

But when you pay him what the Cubs paid him, you better be expecting that out of him.

[jersey cubs fan]

Keep in mind, financial wise, that as Soriano's contract gets bigger throughout the years, and begins to handcuff us, there are other players making big money whose contracts would likely come off the books. Will people expect Lee to be back in a Cub uniform in 2011? If not, that;s $13 mil off the table. Another $10 mil when Lilly leaves with him. The next year the Cubs might buy out Ramirez's contract at $2 mil and get the $19.25 mil they would owe him that year out of their hands. While the Soriano contract isn't helping much, you gotta keep in mind that as his paycheck grows, a lot of players might be gone opening up money for other players and/or spots in the field for prospects (I would assume Vitters will taker over to A-Ram assuming he doesn't bust, same for Colvin and Kosuke, whatever etc.)

 

That doesn't mean anything. You still have to replace those players, in addition to replacing what you thought you were paying Soriano for in the first place and will never get. Soriano's contract will hurt, there's no point in sugarcoating it. The fact that Lee and Ramirez might not be here for the last couple years does not change that.

[Soul]

Now the guy's legs are going and we're facing 7 years of this contract? It's all fine & good to say he'll be good as long as he continues to hit. I get that. I think it's far from certain he'll continue to hit, however.

 

All of this because he's unlikely to ever steal 40 bases in a single season again.

 

LOL. You're right.

 

It's not just this. I'm projecting some of my other disappointments with Sori on to this recent story.

 

Such as?

 

Such as hitting 13 fewer HRs than he did his last year with the Nats, and 20 points lower in OBP.

 

Such as coming up with only half the BB he did with the Nats in '06 (which would have greatly improved his OBP, of course).

 

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

 

We might say *now* he had a career year in '06, but certainly the Cubs didn't pay him that kind of cash because they thought, "he just had a career year, he'll drop off quite a bit now, let's hand him $136million"

 

I cannot deny part of my disappointment is unrealistic expectations. I'm just saying, I was hoping for more, especially these first couple years. Would be nice if he upped the power output a bit for '08, that would make me feel better.

[Sammy Sofa]

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

 

Not even close to the same.

 

Dlee's fluke 2005 was unlike anything he'd come close to in his career. Soriano flirted with 40/40 on a regular basis.

 

But when you pay him what the Cubs paid him, you better be expecting that out of him.

 

Flirting is one thing...look how many times 40/40 has actually been accomplished. Expecting a player to do it agan is statistially pretty ridiculous. He had the drop off last year due to the injury time. Had he not missed that, he likely would have come near 40 home runs again. Again, I'm all about the one part of the 40's, not the stolen bases part. I don't see why everyone automatically assumes that because he's lost some speed, his bat is somehow going to suffer as well. Not being able to steal 40 bases is pretty far from not being able to steal bases at all, so it's not like his stealing "threat" is gone for people hung up on that. His speed was going to drop off relatively early in the contract due to his age anyways.

[jersey cubs fan]

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

 

Not even close to the same.

 

Dlee's fluke 2005 was unlike anything he'd come close to in his career. Soriano flirted with 40/40 on a regular basis.

 

But when you pay him what the Cubs paid him, you better be expecting that out of him.

 

Flirting is one thing...look how many times 40/40 has actually been accomplished. Expecting a player to do it agan is statistially pretty ridiculous. He had the drop off last year due to the injury time. Had he not missed that, he likely would have come near 40 home runs again. Again, I'm all about the one part of the 40's, not the stolen bases part. I don't see why everyone automatically assumes that because he's lost some speed, his bat is somehow going to suffer as well. Not being able to steal 40 bases is pretty far from not being able to steal bases at all, so it's not like his stealing "threat" is gone for people hung up on that. His speed was going to drop off relatively early in the contract due to his age anyways.

 

Personally, I don't care whether he actually gets 40/40. But the fact remains, Soriano has been close to that on a regular basis, whereas Lee has never come close to duplicating 2005. Now, if you want to say it's unrealistic to expect Soriano to repeat his 2006, fine. That's true. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to be disappointed that your $136 million player stands little to no chance of ever living up to his contract, because the only way he could is if he regularly repeats his 2006.

[Sammy Sofa]

He missed time due to the leg injury, which clearly cut into how many HR's he would have had. Besides, expecting him to replicate the 40/40 years is like expecting Lee to replicate his 2005.

 

Not even close to the same.

 

Dlee's fluke 2005 was unlike anything he'd come close to in his career. Soriano flirted with 40/40 on a regular basis.

 

But when you pay him what the Cubs paid him, you better be expecting that out of him.

 

Flirting is one thing...look how many times 40/40 has actually been accomplished. Expecting a player to do it agan is statistially pretty ridiculous. He had the drop off last year due to the injury time. Had he not missed that, he likely would have come near 40 home runs again. Again, I'm all about the one part of the 40's, not the stolen bases part. I don't see why everyone automatically assumes that because he's lost some speed, his bat is somehow going to suffer as well. Not being able to steal 40 bases is pretty far from not being able to steal bases at all, so it's not like his stealing "threat" is gone for people hung up on that. His speed was going to drop off relatively early in the contract due to his age anyways.

 

Personally, I don't care whether he actually gets 40/40. But the fact remains, Soriano has been close to that on a regular basis, whereas Lee has never come close to duplicating 2005. Now, if you want to say it's unrealistic to expect Soriano to repeat his 2006, fine. That's true. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to be disappointed that your $136 million player stands little to no chance of ever living up to his contract, because the only way he could is if he regularly repeats his 2006.

 

Well, yeah, obviously. A contract that insane is only "justified" if he duplicates a 40/40 season. It's pretty much impossible to justify that contract, and his injury, to me, does little to make it any worse than it already is. It just means he'll steal fewer bases...he's still above average speed-wise, and would likely still score around the same number of runs whether he's advanced a base through a steal or not.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, yeah, obviously. A contract that insane is only "justified" if he duplicates a 40/40 season. It's pretty much impossible to justify that contract, and his injury, to me, does little to make it any worse than it already is. It just means he'll steal fewer bases...he's still above average speed-wise, and would likely still score around the same number of runs whether he's advanced a base through a steal or not.

 

The injury means more than fewer SB, it means missed time, which has already happened and likely will continue to happen.

[Clem Fandango]

Keep in mind, financial wise, that as Soriano's contract gets bigger throughout the years, and begins to handcuff us, there are other players making big money whose contracts would likely come off the books. Will people expect Lee to be back in a Cub uniform in 2011? If not, that;s $13 mil off the table. Another $10 mil when Lilly leaves with him. The next year the Cubs might buy out Ramirez's contract at $2 mil and get the $19.25 mil they would owe him that year out of their hands. While the Soriano contract isn't helping much, you gotta keep in mind that as his paycheck grows, a lot of players might be gone opening up money for other players and/or spots in the field for prospects (I would assume Vitters will taker over to A-Ram assuming he doesn't bust, same for Colvin and Kosuke, whatever etc.)

 

That doesn't mean anything. You still have to replace those players, in addition to replacing what you thought you were paying Soriano for in the first place and will never get. Soriano's contract will hurt, there's no point in sugarcoating it. The fact that Lee and Ramirez might not be here for the last couple years does not change that.

 

The point I was making that when those players' contracts are expired, we may have some very acceptable cheap in house replacements, and the money saved from their exiting contracts could be used to get a free agent to compliment the declining skills of Soriano elsewhere.

[jersey cubs fan]

Keep in mind, financial wise, that as Soriano's contract gets bigger throughout the years, and begins to handcuff us, there are other players making big money whose contracts would likely come off the books. Will people expect Lee to be back in a Cub uniform in 2011? If not, that;s $13 mil off the table. Another $10 mil when Lilly leaves with him. The next year the Cubs might buy out Ramirez's contract at $2 mil and get the $19.25 mil they would owe him that year out of their hands. While the Soriano contract isn't helping much, you gotta keep in mind that as his paycheck grows, a lot of players might be gone opening up money for other players and/or spots in the field for prospects (I would assume Vitters will taker over to A-Ram assuming he doesn't bust, same for Colvin and Kosuke, whatever etc.)

 

That doesn't mean anything. You still have to replace those players, in addition to replacing what you thought you were paying Soriano for in the first place and will never get. Soriano's contract will hurt, there's no point in sugarcoating it. The fact that Lee and Ramirez might not be here for the last couple years does not change that.

 

The point I was making that when those players' contracts are expired, we may have some very acceptable cheap in house replacements, and the money saved from their exiting contracts could be used to get a free agent to compliment the declining skills of Soriano elsewhere.

 

Kosuke will be a free agent by then. There is no realistic in house replacement for Lee. Even if Vitters does come in and replace Ramirez at a high level, you're still going to need to be playing for middle infield help (cubs don't have a SS in the system). If Soto is any good he'll be making a ton by then. Plus the pitching. The fact that Lee and Ramirez's contracts (which are both reasonable) come off the books during the second half of Soriano's contract doesn't make his contract any less of a hindrance.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, yeah, obviously. A contract that insane is only "justified" if he duplicates a 40/40 season. It's pretty much impossible to justify that contract, and his injury, to me, does little to make it any worse than it already is. It just means he'll steal fewer bases...he's still above average speed-wise, and would likely still score around the same number of runs whether he's advanced a base through a steal or not.

 

The injury means more than fewer SB, it means missed time, which has already happened and likely will continue to happen.

 

Maybe. Or maybe not attempting to steal as many bases will help avoid significant DL time.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, yeah, obviously. A contract that insane is only "justified" if he duplicates a 40/40 season. It's pretty much impossible to justify that contract, and his injury, to me, does little to make it any worse than it already is. It just means he'll steal fewer bases...he's still above average speed-wise, and would likely still score around the same number of runs whether he's advanced a base through a steal or not.

 

The injury means more than fewer SB, it means missed time, which has already happened and likely will continue to happen.

 

Maybe. Or maybe not attempting to steal as many bases will help avoid significant DL time.

 

Stealing wasn't what hurt him in the first place. He's in his early 30's and can't start a spring training at 100%. You can pretty much kiss good bye any thoughts of complete seasons going forward.

[Clem Fandango]

Keep in mind, financial wise, that as Soriano's contract gets bigger throughout the years, and begins to handcuff us, there are other players making big money whose contracts would likely come off the books. Will people expect Lee to be back in a Cub uniform in 2011? If not, that;s $13 mil off the table. Another $10 mil when Lilly leaves with him. The next year the Cubs might buy out Ramirez's contract at $2 mil and get the $19.25 mil they would owe him that year out of their hands. While the Soriano contract isn't helping much, you gotta keep in mind that as his paycheck grows, a lot of players might be gone opening up money for other players and/or spots in the field for prospects (I would assume Vitters will taker over to A-Ram assuming he doesn't bust, same for Colvin and Kosuke, whatever etc.)

 

That doesn't mean anything. You still have to replace those players, in addition to replacing what you thought you were paying Soriano for in the first place and will never get. Soriano's contract will hurt, there's no point in sugarcoating it. The fact that Lee and Ramirez might not be here for the last couple years does not change that.

 

The point I was making that when those players' contracts are expired, we may have some very acceptable cheap in house replacements, and the money saved from their exiting contracts could be used to get a free agent to compliment the declining skills of Soriano elsewhere.

 

Kosuke will be a free agent by then. There is no realistic in house replacement for Lee. Even if Vitters does come in and replace Ramirez at a high level, you're still going to need to be playing for middle infield help (cubs don't have a SS in the system). If Soto is any good he'll be making a ton by then. Plus the pitching. The fact that Lee and Ramirez's contracts (which are both reasonable) come off the books during the second half of Soriano's contract doesn't make his contract any less of a hindrance.

 

I'm not saying it won't be a hindrance, it will be, that much is clear. I'm just saying I don't think it's going to be the end of times like a lot of people are saying it will be. To each his own, though I suppose

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not saying it won't be a hindrance, it will be, that much is clear. I'm just saying I don't think it's going to be the end of times like a lot of people are saying it will be. To each his own, though I suppose

 

Yeah, I don't see anybody talking end of times. Major hindrance is not sky is falling. It will be possible to field a winning team, just all that much more difficult.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm not saying it won't be a hindrance, it will be, that much is clear. I'm just saying I don't think it's going to be the end of times like a lot of people are saying it will be. To each his own, though I suppose

 

Yeah, I don't see anybody talking end of times. Major hindrance is not sky is falling. It will be possible to field a winning team, just all that much more difficult.

 

Alright then, I just misinterpreted everyone's concerns on this thread and took them as a little more serious than they all probably thought it was

[Derwood]

nevermind that a 5 year deal probably wouldn't have gotten us Soriano to begin with.