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Posted

For whatever reason, I was thinking ahead to the HoF class in 2009.

 

Jim Rice is on the ballot for the 15th and final time. I think he may get enough support to get in, even though he doesn't deserve it.

 

There's one new guy who absolutely should be in, Rickey Henderson. Unfortunately I think he may not even get in on the first ballot, because there are a lot of idiots who think first-ballot HoF's should be guys like Ruth, Williams and Mays, and everyone else should have to wait a year. Plus he had the reputation for being selfish, which may be true, but he's also one of the best LF ever.

 

David Cone is probably a lot closer to being a borderline candidate than most people would suspect, but he shouldn't be in. Hopefully he is having more luck keeping it in his pants than he did while in the Mets' bullpen. Jesse Orosco won't get in unless people really have a fetish for games pitched. Mo Vaughn? Maybe if he hadn't porked up to about three bills by age 30. Mark Grace? No, though he should get bonus points for popularizing the term "slumpbuster." Matt Williams? Nope.

 

I won't bother getting into guys like Alan Trammell and Tim Raines, who should be in, but won't even get a quarter of the votes.

 

And let's not forget our old buddy Ron Santo, who, God willing, will finally get the honor that he deserved 30 years earlier.

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Posted
Rickey should be a no-brainer, and I think he will make it on the first ballot. Raines should go in, but likely comes up short again. Rice is going to be close, he'll either barely make it or barely miss it. I could see him missing with 73-74% or just getting in with 75-76%.
Posted
If Henderson doesn't get in they should just close the place. Raines might have to wait a year or two so voters don't compare him to Rickey, but he should get in at some point.
Posted
If Henderson doesn't get in they should just close the place. Raines might have to wait a year or two so voters don't compare him to Rickey, but he should get in at some point.

 

most guys who don't get in on the first ballot but get in soon afterwards are close. raines wasn't even close this year, he got 24%. unfortunately, he was a great player because he got on base so well (.385 OBP versus league average of .331 while he played), but this skill isn't valued highly enough by a lot of the old-school members of the BBWAA.

Posted

Ricky should get more than 90 percent of the vote.

 

Dawson had a good showing last year. Maybe he gets the nod in '09.

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