Everyone Loves Ranking Mock Drafts - Live!

[Mephistopheles]

You can follow mine live right now!

 

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft.jsp?id=56201

[Mephistopheles]

Here is the "plan"

 

 

1 Ryan Braun

2 Russell Martin

3 Derek Jeter

4 Adam Dunn

5 Nick Markakis

6 Hunter Pence

7 John Smoltz

8 Roy Halladay

9 Daisuke Matsuzaka

10 Matt Kemp

11 Rich Hill

12 Chad Cordero

13 Rafael Soriano

14 Tony Pena

15 Pedro Martinez

16 Jeff Kent

17 Todd Jones

18 Joey Votto

19 CJ Wilson

20 Brian Wilson

21 Jason Schmidt

[Mephistopheles]

The premise of this draft was to see how well I could kick the leagues ass in the draft, "knowing" the outcome of the 2008 season. Basically using the 08 James projections. Which I *know* is a lot of bull, but oh well. Regardless it was funny....

 

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft.jsp?id=56201

 

1-9) Ryan Braun, 3B

46 HR 121 R 122 RBI 20 SB .326 AVG

 

James loves him this year. Like loving him by him being numero uno overall fantasy player. I don't see him hitting 46 HRs lol. Braun's been going 14th this year.

 

2-16) Russell Martin, C

17 HR 95 R 89 RBI 20 SB .292 AVG

 

I wanted Martin with my third pick, but I didn't think he'd last. He's going around 30th this year. Still, he's a top 10 player based on those numbers (!). I don't think they're that far off from consensus projections on him. He's actually the 13th best player if you take him off for my team. That is off all the players to put for my team instead of him, he's 13. Position not included!!! Not an overdraft...

 

3-33) Derek Jeter, SS

15 HR 110 R76 RBI 17 SB .312 AVG

 

 

It took me forever to figure out that Jeter was a good pick for me. Based on the guys I thought I would get, he became more valuable to me. His BA offsets Dunn's BA. Overall he's the 47th best fantasy player per James, and he's going around pick 36. The projections are pretty much what he's done the last four years. Interestingly if you take out Jeter, and then look at the rest of the guys I picked, Jeter becomes 13th best player for my team (at any position) and 2nd best SS to fill that slot. So really it was a quality pick.

 

4-40) Adam Dunn, OF

43 HR 107 R 103 RBI 8 SB .251 AVG

 

Dunn is going around pick 42, so I got him where he's going. Overall he's ranked 34th by James. He's a great fit in this spot for my team. If you take him out and leave everyone else be he's the 14th best fit for my team, with everyone else long gone ahead of him.

 

5-57) Hunter Pence, OF

27 HR 90 R 100 RBI 15 SB .306 AVG

 

I had Nick Markakis slotted for this pick if he lasted. He's been going around pick 52, and went at pick 52. Pence has been going around pick 64, so I nabbed him. He's got great projection, definitely on the optimistic side. 33rd ranked player overall. Take Pence out and leave everyone else, he's the 10th rated player for my team, ahead of Ryan Howard.

 

6-64) Josh Fields, OF

30 HR 86 R 92 RBI 12 SB .272 AVG

 

Oh believe me. I got him about 10 rounds early. What I *should* have done is slotted everybody I wanted up a round to make sure I got them (i missed out on a few) and then take him in the 11th or so. But I wanted to play to my ego. This pick was originally slotted to Pence, with the alt choices being (in order): Torii Hunter, Chris Young, and Corey Hart. They all got swiped up in this draft a bit early. I was like [expletive] it, Ill take Fields. Fields is actually the 24th rated player for the spot based on the team ahead of Hart, Rollins, Hanley, Sizemore and other big names long gone. The projection isn't all that out of whack. It's not like he was a highly rated guy through James dumbass mind. Overall James has Fields as the #174th ranked player.

 

7-81) Roy Halladay, SP

16 W 0 SV 153 K 3.31 ERA 1.17 WHIP

 

This pick was slotted for Smoltz (and the next for Halladay), but Smoltz went the pick right before. Like I said I should have just slotted everyone up. Oh well. The projection doesn't seem completely out of line. Maybe more healthy than likely

 

8-88) Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP

14 W 0 SV 188 K 3.54 ERA 1.23 WHIP

 

Daisuke was slotted to go to me in the 9th round. He's an interesting fantasy guy. Relatively optimistic projection.

 

9-105) Rich Hill, SP

14 W 0 SV 223 K 3.50 ERA 1.17 WHIP

 

Yeah, optimistic.

 

10-112) Matt Kemp, OF

16 HR 87 R 73 RBI 24 SB .322 AVG

 

Yeah, optimistic. 80th rated fantasy player overall, but take out that slot and he's the FIFTH overall for my team, ahead of everyone but Wright, Braun, ARod, and Hanley. Yes, Pujols isn't listed.

 

11-129) Matt Cain, SP

13 W 0 SV 188 K 3.42 ERA 1.26 WHIP

 

James projects low ERAs across the board, like 4.00 on average, so while these seem low, based on the rest of the league around him they're not as low as you think, it's all relative. Still relatively optimistic in this case.

 

12-136) Brad Lidge, RP

13-153) Tony Pena, RP

14-160) Kevin Gregg, RP

 

Saves. 24, 20 and 32 respectively.

 

15-177) Jeff Kent, 2B

22 HR 82 R 90 RBI 2 SB .290 AVG

 

That's basically what Kent did last year, give or take. Maybe a little more PT than expected. Take off 10 R and RBI and he's still a steal. For my team Kents the third best 2B, despite being the 11th ranked 2B overall.

 

16-184) Curt Schilling, SP

11 W 0 SV 150 K 3.54 ERA 1.16 WHIP

 

Doesn't seem all that much out of line. Maybe a bit low on the ratios, but everyone's like that.

 

17-201) Troy Percival, RP

 

Saves: 25

 

18-208) Joey Votto, 1B

23 HR71 R 81 RBI 16 SB .307 AVG

 

Oh optimistic and some. Dont expect it to happen lol. At those he's 16th best overall for my spot. Of course everyone else ahead of him went at least 15 rounds earlier. Those numbers make him the 213th best player overall, yet 16th best for my team. Lovely.

 

19-225) Moises Alou

20-232) Mark Reynolds

21-249) Rick Ankiel

 

I meant to click Ankiel on Alou. Oh well. Reynolds and Ankiel have quality projections. None of these three will make the lineup, but we could only draft 9 pitchers max so i had to pick em.

 

That team comes out to

239 HR

849 Runs

826 Runs Batted In

134 Stolen Bases

.298 Batting Average

87 Wins

102 Saves

1183 Strikeouts

3.48 Earned Run Average

1.21 Whip

 

Which would predict about 105.5 points in a roto league. Oh massacred.

 

It isn't a case of just taking guys James likes more than others and picking them late. It's maximizing your stats based on scarcity. I then faked a complete backup team taking other guys who were available at the same position to see how good it was:

 

The round they went in is listed in parenthesis. I dq'd guys who I picked later. For instance Cain came up for Halladays spot, but I took him in the 11th.

 

1. Miguel Cabrera (1)

2. Joe Mauer (6)

3. Michael Young (8)

4. Andruw Jones (8)

5. Corey Hart (6)

6. Gary Sheffield (7)

7. Pedro Martinez (13)

8. Yovani Gallardo (11)

9. Ben Sheets (10)

10. Lastings Milledge (Undrafted)

11. AJ Burnett (12)

12. Matt Capps (13)

13. Eric Gagne (17)

14. Joakim Soria (15)

15. Kelly Johnson (17)

16. Greg Maddux (21)

17. Jeremy Accardo (17)

18. Mike Jacobs (Undrafted)

 

Milledge is projected at

18 HR 85 R 78 RBI 21 SB .286 AVG

 

I can get a similar score with Pie instead, though a lower BA. Weird.

 

That team, which looks like crap, would be expected to finish in THIRD PLACE (!).

 

If I use a better custom way to do this we'd get this team:

 

1. Miguel Cabrera (1)

2. Victor Martinez (3)

3. Rafael Furcal (6)

4. Bobby Abreu (4)

5. Andruw Jones (8)

6. Gary Sheffield (7)

7. Pedro Martinez (13)

8. Yovani Gallardo (11)

9. Ben Sheets (10)

10. Johnny Damon (12)

11. AJ Burnett (12)

12. Matt Capps (13)

13. Eric Gagne (17)

14. Andy Pettitte (16)

15. Tadahito Iguchi (Undrafted)

16. Greg Maddux (21)

17. Brian Wilson (19)

18. Mike Jacobs (Undrafted)

 

that crap would finish 2nd!

[Rob]

How did you come up with the best fit numbers for your specific team?

[Mephistopheles]

Looking at ADPs. Then figuring overs and unders. Then just random testing out. Like when I realized the dropoff from Santana (my wannabe second pick) to curt schilling (my pot'l 16th pick) was slim, it allowed me to work around and slot some guys. Plugging and chugging afterwards.

 

I did another fake idea loltastic draft thing.

 

this draft right here, would be expected to WIN your league.

 

1. Jose Reyes, SS

2. Jake Peavy, SP

3. John Smoltz, SP

4. Cole Hamels, SP

5. Roy Halladay, SP

6. Rich Hill, SP

7. Juan Pierre, OF

8. Matt Cain, SP

9. Todd Helton, 1B

10. Matt Kemp, OF

11. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF

12. Placido Polanco, 2B

13. Mark Reynolds, 3B

14. JR Towles, C

15. Pedro Martinez, SP

16. Eric Gagne, RP

17. Brian Wilson, RP

18. Todd Jones, RP

19. CJ Wilson, RP

20. Troy Percival, RP

21. David DeJesus, OF

 

Looks like crap?

 

You'd be expected to win all 5 pitching categories. You'd easily finish first in runs, steals and batting average while dead last in HRs and RBIs. Thats 12*8+2 = 98 pts. You'd actually finish with 95 predicted based on the two drafts I've done. Still, you're winning your league with that hilariously bad looking draft.

[Rob]

Interesting...

 

And yeah, that draft looks like exactly the sort of thing I typically avoid. I think the only pitcher I've grabbed inside the first five rounds of a draft in the last few years was Jake Peavy.

[Mephistopheles]

Drafting pitching early is a smart(er) strategy than you'd think. Meph decided to post another draft plan for you kids using mostly other players:

 

1 Albert Pujols, 1B

2 Vladimir Guerrero, OF

3 Lance Berkman, OF

4 Cole Hamels, SP

5 Francisco Rodriguez, RP

6 Chone Figgins, 2B (if not eligible in your league Kinsler is essentially the same value wise)

7 Miguel Tejada, SS

8 Roy Halladay, SP

9 Paul Konerko, 1B

10 Kenji Johjima, C

11 Juan Pierre, OF

12 Yovani Gallardo, SP

13 Matt Capps, RP

14 Josh Fields, 3B

15 Kevin Gregg, RP

16 Troy Percival, RP

17 Brian Wilson, RP

18 Jason Schmidt, SP

19 Mike Mussina, SP

20 Rafael Betancourt, RP

21 Greg Maddux, SP

 

Based off James:

225 HR, 835 Runs, 838 RBI, 135 SB, .299 AVG, 106 Wins, 156 Saves, 1348 K's, 3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP