Baseball HQ's take on Lilly

[rabidawg900]

Lilly's hot streak continues, but flyball woes will keep his ERA volatile... Ted Lilly (LHP, CHC) is on a roll. He won his seventh straight decision on Wednesday. He has six PQS-4/5 scores in his last eight starts. His YTD 95 BPV confirms that his sub-3.50 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are not flukes. The problem with Lilly is his flyball rate. Underneath his solid 1.0 HR/9 lies a 35/17/48 G/L/F. His 8% HR/FB% mark is likely to rise. And with a 3.0 Ctl over the last month, his ERA is likely to rise with it:

 

Period Ctl Dom HR/9 H% S%

============ === === ==== == ==

YTD 2.1 7.6 1.0 27 70

Last 31 Days 3.0 6.5 0.5 26 78

 

Even though his skills don't support his recent surge, they aren't that weak. But he won't continue to pitch like an ace during the final two months. Cash in your returns if you can get ace value for him.

 

Just thought it was interesting. Hope Lilly can stay hot somehow.

 

I don't even know what some of those stats mean. Here's their glossary:

http://www.baseballhq.com/free/acronyms.shtml?src=hqf

Edited July 27, 2007 by rabidawg900

[jersey cubs fan]

I thought he was in trouble with the commish there for a second.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They didn't mention that 14% of Lilly's fly balls are infield flies, which is top 5-10 in the NL. That's part of the reason why his HR rate is so low, and that IF/F rate has been that high his entire career, so it's an ability he's repeatedly shown.

[Drew Doughty]

They didn't mention that 14% of Lilly's fly balls are infield flies, which is top 5-10 in the NL. That's part of the reason why his HR rate is so low, and that IF/F rate has been that high his entire career, so it's an ability he's repeatedly shown.

 

still, his HR/FB rate is way down this year compared to the last 3 years. he's probably going to allow a few more home runs in the coming weeks. the question will be whether he can limit the damage by continuing to not allow many baserunners.

[CyHawk_Cub]

They didn't mention that 14% of Lilly's fly balls are infield flies, which is top 5-10 in the NL. That's part of the reason why his HR rate is so low, and that IF/F rate has been that high his entire career, so it's an ability he's repeatedly shown.

 

still, his HR/FB rate is way down this year compared to the last 3 years. he's probably going to allow a few more home runs in the coming weeks. the question will be whether he can limit the damage by continuing to not allow many baserunners.

 

Can he maintain his stellar K/BB ratio, or is he doomed to regress to his career norm? If he can maintain that, I'm not worried about him giving up a few homers..

[Drew Doughty]

They didn't mention that 14% of Lilly's fly balls are infield flies, which is top 5-10 in the NL. That's part of the reason why his HR rate is so low, and that IF/F rate has been that high his entire career, so it's an ability he's repeatedly shown.

 

still, his HR/FB rate is way down this year compared to the last 3 years. he's probably going to allow a few more home runs in the coming weeks. the question will be whether he can limit the damage by continuing to not allow many baserunners.

 

Can he maintain his stellar K/BB ratio, or is he doomed to regress to his career norm? If he can maintain that, I'm not worried about him giving up a few homers..

 

he should be able to. that's something that's really difficult to determine whether it's a "fluke" or not. it seems to me that he turned a corner with his control.

[VanceJergins]

I'm sure it doesn't hurt his HR rate going from facing ARod, Giambi, Ortiz, Manny, etc. on a regular basis, to facing the devastation lineups of the Astros, Cardinals, and Pirates.

[Brian]

I'll be at his next start so I hope he can keep his roll going.