Shortstop II + Fixing the Cubs + The Future

[Mephistopheles]

This is a baseball discussion and I expect that everyone here will stick to baseball and not get this thread locked. I understand it will be hard for some of you, but it must be done.

 

If you believe in the power of projection, the Cubs look like they're going to win approximately 87.5 games. Right now the Cubs have two anemic holes on their team. The pitching has been fine and will probably continue to be above average for the duration of the season. Much of the offense has been alright. Here's the cumulative EqA for each of our positions.

 

C - .222

1B - .314

2B - .280

3B - .300

SS - .231

LF - .284

CF - .250

RF - .255

 

The biggest holes have obviously been CF, RF, SS and C. You didn't need something as complex as EqA to tell you that. Just watching the Cubs this year tells you that. While RF and CF have been anemic offensively, SS and C have been much worse and may add more bang for your buck to fix.

 

Jim's already got his fix for behind the plate in Jason Kendall. While Jason Kendall has had a terrible season, it's very likely we'll improve on the .222 EqA from our catchers. How much? Who knows. The Cubs had a .271 from the position last year. Jason Kendall's PECOTA EqA projection was .254, pretty average for your catcher. IF we get .250 EqA from our catchers the rest of the season and the rest of the team plays as is our win projection goes from 87.5 to 88.2 (+8.0 R).

 

I think our 1B and 3B production will continue.f DeRosa and Fontenot play 2B the rest of the season, I think a .275 EqA is doable. If DeRosa got all the PT, .280 may be. Nevertheless the .275 projection nets us a loss of about 2 runs (1.8) which decreases us to 88.1. Which I'll keep in this because I want to. Shortstop.....yuck. Theriot will probably get all the PT there the rest of the season and seemingly has settled upon being a .260 EqA guy. I'm not sure how sustainable it is, but if we take it as fact, it's worth an increases our wins to 88.9 while netting us 8.1 runs. Thank you Pittsburgh!

 

The two most likely places for an upgrade are RF and CF. Be careful which you do. If the Cubs keep Jacque Jones, who has been hitting well the last month, and he plays to his capabilities (.270 EqA) in CF you have to assume that some of that would be offset by Angel Pagan getting some time. Pagan's not this good. We all know that, expecting a .265 EqA from our CFers the rest of the season seems fine. That's netting us 5.0 runs and we're up to 89.3. Now for LF, since we've already taken account of some of Soriano's PT in CF, and Soriano has been a PT rock in LF since switching back, it's safe to assume we should project his EqA for all of LF PT. That's netting us 3.6 runs and we're looking at 89.7 wins.

 

Now for RF. I don't think we can project an upgrade as is. Cliff Floyd's out and has played well when he has played but not often. The rest of our RFers have been laughable at best. IF the Cubs brought up Murton and he played to his .281 EqA projection, it would be a huge upgrade, but that would make too much sense and does not seem all that likely to happen. Of course it isn't Murton's fault. Okay, hypothetically speaking again, if it did happen we're netting 9.1 runs and we'd be over 90 wins at 90.5.

 

Right now, as is, I think we're looking at about 88 or 89 wins. All the way around the diamond it looks like we've performed below the expected level. Obviously, some guys always will perform below their expected level -- hello probability theory -- but keep in mind that these statistics are almost always against average competition and the Cubs play a below average schedule the remainder of the season.

 

Now, what would I suggest doing? Troy Glaus at SS. Yes, it sounds poor, assuming that he's an average defensive 3B, we're only looking at a -11 run loss on defense at SS per 150 games. He's a bonafied .300 EqA hitter and if he takes over for Theriot, we're looking at + 14.6 runs on offense and - 4.8 runs on defense -- netting us about 9.7 runs and almost one win. It's an expensive win, but wins around 90 GREATLY increase your playoff expectancy. It'll certainly be worth it. In fact, it would be even better to keep Theriot at SS and flip Glaus out to RF. We'd actually gain team defense there (+8 runs per 150 games) and get a similar increase on offense. If this was done instead, we're looking at +3.5 runs on defense and 16.5 runs on offense, 20 runs total. Keep in mind this is over what we've gotten not a Murton PT. That would push us to 92.1 wins (and a .623 WPCT which prorates to a 101 win team!). With Murton at RF and Glaus at SS we're a 92.0 team, in case you were wondering.

 

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season. Of course Dunn still leaves us at 91 or so wins and would be worthwhile and a more likely scenario. If I were GM I'd try to go after Glaus, but he has a NTC so it may never happen and shift him out to RF if he wants. It would make us an excellent team and give us 92 wins or so and gives us a 100 win team talent. If all of the other projections remain true and we don't do squat in RF, CF we're looking at a 89 win team give or take. Although projected, we're looking at a mid 90s team who underperformed for half a season. If we nab Dunn we're still looking at 90+ wins and a 99-100 win talent team. For those of you wanting Griffey, it would be the same as acquiring Glaus. So they're interchangeable. Griffey adds more value in offense, Glaus in defense. People can forget about KGjr's GG's. He's a joke in the OF and has been for some time. Ironically enough the BP PS odds report has the Cubs winning an average of 89.0 wins and the Crew at 90.8, although that's not Sheets-adjusted.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

[reds44]

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season.

 

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs?

 

Makes no sense.

[Mephistopheles]

it would probably amount to the same thing as playing Murton there full-time. But why even trade for one? We're not going to get one better than Murton. Just play Murton 75% of the time and Floyd against tough side-arming righties who are usually tough on the RHBs. It would probably net us a .285 or so EqA -- which is good enough to turn us into a 90+ win team and gains 10 runs or so. We can then use the resources that would have been involved in a trade to acquire a CFer, SS, real C or pitching. We can't nickel and dime our way into a part time player that's better than the one we got.

[reds44]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

[Mephistopheles]

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season.

 

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs?

 

Makes no sense.

 

Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it.

[Mephistopheles]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Since we're thinking about sticking Glaus at SS, what about acquiring Helton and putting him in right?

 

How would that work, meph? (I'm not being facetious, either.) I'm trying to take your out-of-the-box thinking and expand.

[Flames24Rulz]

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season.

 

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs?

 

Makes no sense.

 

Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it.

 

I'm probably as big of a Murton fan as you'll find on this site, but he was just abysmal in RF when Lou put him out there this year.

[reds44]

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season.

 

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs?

 

Makes no sense.

 

Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it.

How can you account for a guy switching positions that he has never played before? Where does this comes from?

[reds44]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

You think Sosa will come back to the Cubs and platoon?

 

Not gonna happen.

[Flames24Rulz]

Since we're thinking about sticking Glaus at SS, what about acquiring Helton and putting him in right?

 

How would that work, meph? (I'm not being facetious, either.) I'm trying to take your out-of-the-box thinking and expand.

 

Colorado won't trade him. They're only 5.5 out of 1st.

[Mephistopheles]

Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season.

 

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs?

 

Makes no sense.

 

Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it.

 

I'm probably as big of a Murton fan as you'll find on this site, but he was just abysmal in RF when Lou put him out there this year.

 

There's really no trade off between RF and LF. That said there may be an initial adjustment phase. Ha, perhaps Murton is even dyslexic. He didn't play there all that much when he did. He wasn't hitting worth crap. He wasn't playing there often. And, have you been watching Floyd out there this season? My legs hurt watching him run in the outfield.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

vs LH pitching: .333/434/580/1.014

 

Not a lot of outs there. But, don't let facts get in the way of a good point, ok?

[reds44]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

vs LH pitching: .333/434/580/1.014

 

Not a lot of outs there. But, don't let facts get in the way of a good point, ok?

Sosa's not going to come here and platoon. There is no chance of that happening. Same thing goes for the gold glove 1st baseman from Colorado coming here to play RF.

 

And before you say Sosa doesn't have a NTC, it doesn't matter. If he doesn't want to go somewhere, he'll make sure he doesn't.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

You think Sosa will come back to the Cubs and platoon?

 

Not gonna happen.

 

He's essentially being platooned in Texas. He's still getting AB's because Wash likes him, but the GM is shopping him heavily. Sosa wouldn't have much choice in his role if he's traded. He no longer has that clout. Sure, I'd hope there would be discussions with him about his role before following through, but you make it sound like he has a NTC or something. He doesn't. Sosa also wants to play next year and making an ass of himself at this stage wouldn't further that cause.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

vs LH pitching: .333/434/580/1.014

 

Not a lot of outs there. But, don't let facts get in the way of a good point, ok?

Sosa's not going to come here and platoon. There is no chance of that happening. Same thing goes for the gold glove 1st baseman from Colorado coming here to play RF.

 

And before you say Sosa doesn't have a NTC, it doesn't matter. If he doesn't want to go somewhere, he'll make sure he doesn't.

 

You don't know that. Sosa has been a model citizen in Texas and isn't playing every day there. If he stays, he's eventually going to yield playing time to Jason Botts. The GM has already said as much.

 

He doesn't have an NTC and he'll go where the Rangers ship him or quit. Since he wants to play next season, I doubt he takes the latter.

[reds44]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

You think Sosa will come back to the Cubs and platoon?

 

Not gonna happen.

 

He's essentially being platooned in Texas. He's still getting AB's because Wash likes him, but the GM is shopping him heavily. Sosa wouldn't have much choice in his role if he's traded. He no longer has that clout. Sure, I'd hope there would be discussions with him about his role before following through, but you make it sound like he has a NTC or something. He doesn't. Sosa also wants to play next year and making an ass of himself at this stage wouldn't further that cause.

AB's vs. LHP: 74

AB vs. RHP: 224

 

I guess that's estentially being platooned.

 

If you don't think players can controll where they want to go without having a NTC, then you are nuts. Texas won't trade him somewhere he won't want to go.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

You think Sosa will come back to the Cubs and platoon?

 

Not gonna happen.

 

He's essentially being platooned in Texas. He's still getting AB's because Wash likes him, but the GM is shopping him heavily. Sosa wouldn't have much choice in his role if he's traded. He no longer has that clout. Sure, I'd hope there would be discussions with him about his role before following through, but you make it sound like he has a NTC or something. He doesn't. Sosa also wants to play next year and making an ass of himself at this stage wouldn't further that cause.

AB's vs. LHP: 74

AB vs. RHP: 224

 

I guess that's estentially being platooned.

 

If you don't think players can controll where they want to go without having a NTC, then you are nuts. Texas won't trade him somewhere he won't want to go.

 

Link?

[RichHillIsABeast]

eyre for dunn. straight up. no joke.

[reds44]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

You think Sosa will come back to the Cubs and platoon?

 

Not gonna happen.

 

He's essentially being platooned in Texas. He's still getting AB's because Wash likes him, but the GM is shopping him heavily. Sosa wouldn't have much choice in his role if he's traded. He no longer has that clout. Sure, I'd hope there would be discussions with him about his role before following through, but you make it sound like he has a NTC or something. He doesn't. Sosa also wants to play next year and making an ass of himself at this stage wouldn't further that cause.

AB's vs. LHP: 74

AB vs. RHP: 224

 

I guess that's estentially being platooned.

 

If you don't think players can controll where they want to go without having a NTC, then you are nuts. Texas won't trade him somewhere he won't want to go.

 

Link?

Link to what?

[Mephistopheles]

Since we're thinking about sticking Glaus at SS, what about acquiring Helton and putting him in right?

 

How would that work, meph? (I'm not being facetious, either.) I'm trying to take your out-of-the-box thinking and expand.

 

Colorado won't trade him. They're only 5.5 out of 1st.

 

I don't think he's available. I think Dunn and especially Glaus would be cheaper to acquire. First, my math was correct all the way up to saying what Glaus would do, Glaus in RF would make us at 91.5, Murton would make us 90.5. Helton would be our best move, a +26.6 run net and +2.5 wins to 92.1. Sorry about the false hope earlier...about .5 a win of it.

[Skyballer]

eyre for dunn. straight up. no joke.

:roll: That's gotta be a joke

[E.J.]

Well-thought out post.

 

You're better with the numbers than I am, Meph. What could be the gain if we acquired a RH bat----say Sammy Sosa, and platooned him with Floyd in RF. How does that help us?

Sosa is an outs machine.

 

vs LH pitching: .333/434/580/1.014

 

Not a lot of outs there. But, don't let facts get in the way of a good point, ok?

Sosa's not going to come here and platoon. There is no chance of that happening. Same thing goes for the gold glove 1st baseman from Colorado coming here to play RF.

 

And before you say Sosa doesn't have a NTC, it doesn't matter. If he doesn't want to go somewhere, he'll make sure he doesn't.

 

You don't know that. Sosa has been a model citizen in Texas and isn't playing every day there. If he stays, he's eventually going to yield playing time to Jason Botts. The GM has already said as much.

 

He doesn't have an NTC and he'll go where the Rangers ship him or quit. Since he wants to play next season, I doubt he takes the latter.

 

You have to let go of the idea of bringing Sosa back Vance. There's absolutely no way Hendry would bring him back after when happened a couple years ago.

[reds44]

Since we're thinking about sticking Glaus at SS, what about acquiring Helton and putting him in right?

 

How would that work, meph? (I'm not being facetious, either.) I'm trying to take your out-of-the-box thinking and expand.

 

Colorado won't trade him. They're only 5.5 out of 1st.

 

I don't think he's available. I think Dunn and especially Glaus would be cheaper to acquire. First, my math was correct all the way up to saying what Glaus would do, Glaus in RF would make us at 91.5, Murton would make us 90.5. Helton would be our best move, a +26.6 run net and +2.5 wins to 92.1. Sorry about the false hope earlier...about .5 a win of it.

Yeah, that's a lock. Take it to the bank.