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offense simulator


is now working. Based on simple probabilities, the simulator runs through games (all nine innings) and produces a run total for each game. Baserunning is pretty tough to model so it is largely ignored - therefore, the simulator does not predict season run totals. It can be used to model different lineups and compare the likely results, however.


for instance, the trial runs were a lineup of:











based on three year averages.


This lineup averaged 622 runs per season (100 seasons were run). By switching Murton and Izturis, the lineup averaged 631 runs per season. 50 seasons seems sufficient to get to an average. standard deviation is 35.


The next plan is to start replacing players with potential acquisitions to measure the impact of each. I also may run 96 game seasons with and without Lee to see how that turns out.

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