Aaron Rowand......

[cheapseats]

OK to sum it up:

 

You believe that even though there has been statistical research that shows little dropoff in players moving from RF to CF, Jones is exceptional and would not be very good.

 

You believe that the defensive spectrum that Bill James introduced in 1988 is authoritative but defensive research since then, save the work of Dewan, is antiquated.

 

You believe that all pre-2003 defensive stats are meaningless. because Dewan only looked at 2003-2005. Therefore, post-2005 defensive stats are also meaningless.

 

You believe that Dewan has sufficiently accounted for park effects in his OF vectors. I believe his IF rankings, particularly for middle infielders, to be far more reliable than his OF stats because he does not sufficiently account for the size and shapes of outfields. Perhaps Jones' range is not assessed fairly because of the rather small dimensions in right field in the Metrodome, for example. Outfield sizes and shapes are variable. Infield dimensions (save foul territory, more of a factor for 1B and 3B) are not - although the speed of infields vary. Dewan calculates park effects differently than Lichtman (and about everyone else). Since there's such a discrepancy between his assessment of Jones and everyone else's assessment of Jones, that might be worth looking into.

 

Dewan also penalizes players for errors to a greater extent than others who produce defensive metrics. On that issue, I'm in the Bill James camp.

 

You believe that looking at every ball in play is important. I believe, while it's great to do so, with a large enough sample size, the effects of such scrutiny are minimalized when compared with metrics that measure the same things.

 

Sincerely, I think you very much overrate the importance of OF defense in Wrigley. Since I'm conversing with a Cards fan, I'd really like to know how you feel about Edmonds, who is ranked 32nd out of 35 among CF's over the last 3 years.

 

Does Edmonds hit well enough to justify keeping him in CF? Is his .20 point advantage over Jones enough to warrant playing time in CF?

 

Is Pierre's defense so good that it would be better for the Cubs to keep him in CF if Jones were the alternative?

 

Again, there are quite a few metrics that rank Jones as an above average, if not exceptional, right fielder. I don't believe you're thinking critically enough about why Dewan disagrees on that issue, I don't believe you're thinking critically enough about the needs of the Cubs with regard to the dimensions and characteristics of their park, and I don't believe you're thinking critically about the opportunity costs for the Cubs.

Edited August 4, 2006 by cheapseats

[cheapseats]

Are you suggesting the Cubs should give up on OF defense?

 

I don't think Jones in CF is in any way, shape or form giving up on OF defense. Even if Jones is not a great defender, the drop from RF to CF observed by BP is so miniscule that it's a nonissue. Even if fielding rate is not as good as the Fielding Bible, I have a lot of trouble believing that the qualitative comparison of the difficulties of the two positions is tremendously wrong.

 

Since Jones has to be here next year, he's probably most valuable to the Cobs as a CF. That way they can look into getting another corner OF who, if nothing else, would provide more with the bat than Juan Pierre. When it's all said and done, it's probably the Cobs best move.

 

Sigh. What he said.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Are you suggesting the Cubs should give up on OF defense?

 

I don't think Jones in CF is in any way, shape or form giving up on OF defense. Even if Jones is not a great defender, the drop from RF to CF observed by BP is so miniscule that it's a nonissue. Even if fielding rate is not as good as the Fielding Bible, I have a lot of trouble believing that the qualitative comparison of the difficulties of the two positions is tremendously wrong.

 

Since Jones has to be here next year, he's probably most valuable to the Cobs as a CF. That way they can look into getting another corner OF who, if nothing else, would provide more with the bat than Juan Pierre. When it's all said and done, it's probably the Cobs best move.

 

 

I'm suggesting Jone is a terrible RF and if they moved him to CF he'd be completely god awful. Just because Jones has a range of X in RF doesn't mean he'd have that range in CF. It's a much more difficult position to play.

 

 

I'm a Cards fan on a Cubs board so I'll drop his. Admittedly it's become a silly pissing match with cheapseats.

 

I've actually been quite entertained throughout the whole ordeal. I especially liked it when you dissected each others opinions piece-by-piece.

 

Edit: Oh, and the arguments, of course. I'm going to check out the Fielding Bible.

 

lol ordeal.

 

Clearly, I think it's great book and you should check it out. I honestly think it's the most important baseball metics book to come out in years. It's a really easy book to read and grasp.

 

 

I did an phone interview with John Dewan for my msg board here. Some of the stuff we talked about isn't even in his book. The bit about the value of good 1B defense is shocking.