Question about Slumps/Hot Streaks

[Outshined_One]

So, Navin and I were having a discussion about some of the minor league guys and we noticed a pattern with a number of position players originating in the Cubs' system (Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin). During times when they're slumping and putting up low averages & power numbers, their walk totals are typically above their career line. Yet, during hot streaks, their averages and power go through the roof while the number of walks they take decreases by a noticeable degree.

 

Is this true of baseball in general? Or is it a result of the organizational philosophy in terms of the players they seek out and/or their coaching methods?

[soccer10k]

So, Navin and I were having a discussion about some of the minor league guys and we noticed a pattern with a number of position players originating in the Cubs' system (Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin). During times when they're slumping and putting up low averages & power numbers, their walk totals are typically above their career line. Yet, during hot streaks, their averages and power go through the roof while the number of walks they take decreases by a noticeable degree.

 

Is this true of baseball in general? Or is it a result of the organizational philosophy in terms of the players they seek out and/or their coaching methods?

 

That is very interesting. I never noticed anything but then again, I never really thought about it. I would think it would be difficult to go back and look up enough hot streaks to check if this has any truth to it.

[Laura]

So, Navin and I were having a discussion about some of the minor league guys and we noticed a pattern with a number of position players originating in the Cubs' system (Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin). During times when they're slumping and putting up low averages & power numbers, their walk totals are typically above their career line. Yet, during hot streaks, their averages and power go through the roof while the number of walks they take decreases by a noticeable degree.

 

Is this true of baseball in general? Or is it a result of the organizational philosophy in terms of the players they seek out and/or their coaching methods?

 

Interesting.

 

My initial thought would be that it's the second option you pose. The pattern might reflect the type of position players that the Cubs tend to draft -- kids who can hit vs kids who demonstrate plate discipline (or high ceiling/toolsy but raw vs polished/advanced but lower ceiling). When they're on a hot streak, it's because they're relying on the same talent that got them drafted, which is hitting the ball. It's only when they aren't hitting that they might demonstrate more patience in terms of pitch selection.

 

Maybe ... I could also see it somewhat reflecting player development priorities, especially in the lower minors. Managers aren't going to go for lefty/lefty matchups, for instance, and pitching schedules and whatever an individual pitcher needs to work on may dictate or take precedence over how individual hitters are pitched in game situations. Pitchers there are often working to refine their control. Add the DH into the mix and the intentional BB as well as the 'unintentional' "pitching around" a hot hitter isn't used strategically on a daily basis as much as it is in the upper minors and MLB. So where you might expect in the majors to see the BB rate go up for a red-hot hitter because pitchers are more cautious pitching to him, you might not see the same effect in the lower minors.

 

I don't think, for instance, that Ryan Harvey would have been pitched in an MLB setting the way he was pitched last night in the 9th inning in the Daytona game after he had homered 3 times in the game already. (not to take anything away from a magnificent game by Harvey)

 

But if you look at the team batting stats for the Midwest League (low-A), you see the Kane County Cougars (Oakland A's) leading the league in BBs and the Peoria Chiefs (Cubs) in last place. That would sure seem to reflect franchise influence on BB rates regardless of individual hot/cold streaks, whether that influence is due to drafting priorities or organizational coaching philosophy or both.

[CubColtPacer]

I also think this is mostly true of the Cubs style of player in general. I think players who like to attack the first good pitch they see go into a slump they lose that confidence and start to take a few pitches. I'm guessing their strikeout rate will also go up, but thier walk rate does too as they get deeper into counts. Jacque Jones is a perfect example of this. When he is going right, he is hitting one of the first 3 pitches. When he goes deep into the count, he really begins to struggle. I think Jones might be one player who might be better under the Cubs philosophy. If you look at his career numbers, you notice that his walks go way up when his average goes down, especially in 2004 and 2005. Part of this might be attributed to pitchers pitching around him, but I think part of it is due to Jones taking more pitches early in the count. Finally, look at it this way when you have a player like Jones. If you are deep in the count, you are likely to throw him a pitch low and inside to try to get him to strike himself out. He usually will chase it, but he won't always and that will increase his walk total. When he is hitting well, he has already put a strike into play earlier in the count.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

I also think this is mostly true of the Cubs style of player in general. I think players who like to attack the first good pitch they see go into a slump they lose that confidence and start to take a few pitches. I'm guessing their strikeout rate will also go up, but thier walk rate does too as they get deeper into counts. Jacque Jones is a perfect example of this. When he is going right, he is hitting one of the first 3 pitches. When he goes deep into the count, he really begins to struggle. I think Jones might be one player who might be better under the Cubs philosophy. If you look at his career numbers, you notice that his walks go way up when his average goes down, especially in 2004 and 2005. Part of this might be attributed to pitchers pitching around him, but I think part of it is due to Jones taking more pitches early in the count. Finally, look at it this way when you have a player like Jones. If you are deep in the count, you are likely to throw him a pitch low and inside to try to get him to strike himself out. He usually will chase it, but he won't always and that will increase his walk total. When he is hitting well, he has already put a strike into play earlier in the count.

 

It definately depends on the approach of the player.

 

For instance, Murton's walk/bb ratio is much closer to 1:1 when he is going well. When he's not, it's more like 0.3:1. Murton never gives up an AB and is comfortable with looking for a ball in a zone when he's up in the count. When he's down in the count, he looks for the pitcher to go off the plate with him and changes his approach. Murton hits .283/.411 when he's ahead 1-0, and he's .281/.311 when he's down 0-1. Murton is willing to try and work the count back into his favor even if he gives up a strike on the first pitch (often a pitcher's pitch). This is an inherent advantage of zone hitting. When Murton got away from this approach in June and looked like he was going after every first fastball, he struggled.

 

With Jacque, the AB is basically over after he gets down 0-1 (.201/.217) compared with 1-0 (.336/.384). He's also incredible on the first pitch (always fastballs). That's the sign of a hitter who when he's up, can look fastball and kill it. Jacque is a great fastball hitter. When he's down in the count, he'll swing at anything that comes out of the pitchers hand high. He has no ability to work the count and basically has to go after a fastball early as was previously mentioned.

[Dirt Dog Sparly]

I would also believe that the BB/K rate would have an effect by the hot streak. The ball looks as big as a pumpkin and soft tossed at that. When you are in that God gifted zone you crush the baseball. The check swings find a hole and the end of the bat bloopers become dying quail just over the IF head. In that time because you are hitting everything, you arent getting an opportunity to walk or strike out. You are putting the ball in play before that happens.

 

On the otherhand when it looks like a golfball and the pitcher is making it act like a wiffleball, you are hitting defensively which should lead to deeper counts. Once you get to deeper counts and you are fighting every pitch you may foul off enough to get the pitcher give in and walk you just to end the AB if you dont chase the pitch away.

 

Which is why I would believe that the A's and the Cubs are on opposite ends. The A's teach strike zone recognition. The Cubs teach hack and smack.