You cannot underestimate the importance of speed

[imb]

The Rays are hitting Crawford third now.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

The big problem with Pods is sticking him in LF (same with Crawford). Huge waste of power potential. Reyes is ok b/c you don't expect much out of SS. Speed isn't the end all, but some teams do overvalue it. The market, in general, does not.

The market for any player, in general, is the highest bidder. If there are several teams that overvalue speed and will overpay for it, then the market, in general, overvalues speed.

 

Back to Econ 101 you go. :lol:

 

A market with limited buyers and sellers means that the overbidding of one party can be out of line with the market as a whole.

[Guest]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

The big problem with Pods is sticking him in LF (same with Crawford). Huge waste of power potential. Reyes is ok b/c you don't expect much out of SS. Speed isn't the end all, but some teams do overvalue it. The market, in general, does not.

The market for any player, in general, is the highest bidder. If there are several teams that overvalue speed and will overpay for it, then the market, in general, overvalues speed.

 

Back to Econ 101 you go. :lol:

 

A market with limited buyers and sellers means that the overbidding of one party can be out of line with the market as a whole.

Yet the market for any given player is set by the highest bidder. You only have to find one fool to buy your crap at the price you want on eBay to be successful. Whether or not the rest of the buyers are willing to pay that price, if you want to purchase unique commodity X in an open market and buyer Y is willing to pay a certain price, you will have to pay at least that much to get X.

 

If what you are purchasing is a commodity and there are limited buyers, then pricing is determined much differently. Unfortunately, players are not commodities and therefore each "marquee" player in FA has his own unique market that is only somewhat affected by what happens with other FA's.

[nilodnayr]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

 

Taking the top 20 base stealers is biasing your sample b/c there are relatively few basestealers able to "create havoc." Using a small sample size is worthless so he took a shortcut. Basically, his numbers are crap. I like the ideas he uses, particularly in taking the change in D into account.

 

He needs to identify the elite basestealers by hard criteria and look at the data over a long period of time, not just the top 20 (too many) over 3 years (too few). Bad data selection.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

The big problem with Pods is sticking him in LF (same with Crawford). Huge waste of power potential. Reyes is ok b/c you don't expect much out of SS. Speed isn't the end all, but some teams do overvalue it. The market, in general, does not.

The market for any player, in general, is the highest bidder. If there are several teams that overvalue speed and will overpay for it, then the market, in general, overvalues speed.

 

Back to Econ 101 you go. :lol:

 

A market with limited buyers and sellers means that the overbidding of one party can be out of line with the market as a whole.

Yet the market for any given player is set by the highest bidder. You only have to find one fool to buy your crap at the price you want on eBay to be successful. Whether or not the rest of the buyers are willing to pay that price, if you want to purchase unique commodity X in an open market and buyer Y is willing to pay a certain price, you will have to pay at least that much to get X.

 

If what you are purchasing is a commodity and there are limited buyers, then pricing is determined much differently. Unfortunately, players are not commodities and therefore each "marquee" player in FA has his own unique market that is only somewhat affected by what happens with other FA's.

 

No, that only happens in a perfect market, where both buyers and sellers are perfectly aware of what everyone is paying and bidding. This is obviously not the case in baseball, which is not a perfect market.

 

If baseball was a perfect market, teams' performances would vary strictly by payroll. They do not.

[Guest]

Yet the market for any given player is set by the highest bidder. You only have to find one fool to buy your crap at the price you want on eBay to be successful. Whether or not the rest of the buyers are willing to pay that price, if you want to purchase unique commodity X in an open market and buyer Y is willing to pay a certain price, you will have to pay at least that much to get X.

 

If what you are purchasing is a commodity and there are limited buyers, then pricing is determined much differently. Unfortunately, players are not commodities and therefore each "marquee" player in FA has his own unique market that is only somewhat affected by what happens with other FA's.

 

No, that only happens in a perfect market, where both buyers and sellers are perfectly aware of what everyone is paying and bidding. This is obviously not the case in baseball, which is not a perfect market.

 

If baseball was a perfect market, teams' performances would vary strictly by payroll. They do not.

Can you explain what imperfections in the market cause my statements to be invalid? I'm very interested to hear them.

 

However, I have very strong problems with your last statement there. Even if every FA offer sheet were completely public, there would still be significant variations in team performance. Injuries, quality of farm system, trades, performance variation, philosophical differences in approach to team building and much more all have an impact beyond the FA market. The FA market could be a "perfect market" and there could still be teams that vastly over/underperform their payroll.

[UBlink]

Yet the market for any given player is set by the highest bidder. You only have to find one fool to buy your crap at the price you want on eBay to be successful. Whether or not the rest of the buyers are willing to pay that price, if you want to purchase unique commodity X in an open market and buyer Y is willing to pay a certain price, you will have to pay at least that much to get X.

 

If what you are purchasing is a commodity and there are limited buyers, then pricing is determined much differently. Unfortunately, players are not commodities and therefore each "marquee" player in FA has his own unique market that is only somewhat affected by what happens with other FA's.

 

No, that only happens in a perfect market, where both buyers and sellers are perfectly aware of what everyone is paying and bidding. This is obviously not the case in baseball, which is not a perfect market.

 

If baseball was a perfect market, teams' performances would vary strictly by payroll. They do not.

Can you explain what imperfections in the market cause my statements to be invalid? I'm very interested to hear them.

 

However, I have very strong problems with your last statement there. Even if every FA offer sheet were completely public, there would still be significant variations in team performance. Injuries, quality of farm system, trades, performance variation, philosophical differences in approach to team building and much more all have an impact beyond the FA market. The FA market could be a "perfect market" and there could still be teams that vastly over/underperform their payroll.

 

Further points about markets. One of the main simplifying assumptions about perfect markets is the free availability of complete information. Because the product being traded is services provided by a human in the future, that assumption clearly doesn't fit this market. Another assumption is product homogeneity. Because each player is a combination of many different skill sets and the needs of different teams for each of the skill sets will be different, there can be no uniform ranking of the value of different players, even with free availability of perfect information.

 

The successful participants in this market will be those who are efficient at collecting the relevant, costly information, and proficient in analyzing it within their own context.

[nilodnayr]

There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford?

 

These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game.

 

I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel.

 

Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol:

 

It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs).

 

I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

 

Taking the top 20 base stealers is biasing your sample b/c there are relatively few basestealers able to "create havoc." Using a small sample size is worthless so he took a shortcut. Basically, his numbers are crap. I like the ideas he uses, particularly in taking the change in D into account.

 

He needs to identify the elite basestealers by hard criteria and look at the data over a long period of time, not just the top 20 (too many) over 3 years (too few). Bad data selection.

 

He only used 10 basestealers over 3 years which totaled about 3700 plate appearances. Seems like he only used fairly elite base stealers (Abreu is the worst) and although you'd love to have more data, and I havent run a Z test or anything, but 3700 instances seems like a decent amount to me. Even if you think the sample size is a little skimpy, the results are pretty evident that the affect is basically nothing.