Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)

[TB_11]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll second that. I'd imagine people here would be happy with .330-.340 OBP out of those two over the course of 2006. A .380 OBP for Murton and I'll be all over that bandwagon.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

The Cubs could have 4-6 .300 hitters if those two meet those projections. If that happens, the team OBP should push .350. I would like to see that very much.

 

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350.

[stitchface]

 

The Cubs could have 4-6 .300 hitters if those two meet those projections. If that happens, the team OBP should push .350. I would like to see that very much.

 

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350.

 

No, to get 6 players hitting .300 would push Pierre and Jones into that .350 as well. certainly walker and barrett wouldn't drag them down that much. I find the kool-aid reference quite offensive by the way. why add that - does it somehow contribute to your argument or is it just meant to irk me?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll agree that Murton won't get the .318 BA and .378 OBP, but I'd say he gets 13 HRs and 53 RBI.

 

I don't think there's any point in projecting RBI's, and I guess he might get the HR, that part being accurate is almost irrelevent to me in light of the total production.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

The Cubs could have 4-6 .300 hitters if those two meet those projections. If that happens, the team OBP should push .350. I would like to see that very much.

 

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350.

 

No, to get 6 players hitting .300 would push Pierre and Jones into that .350 as well. certainly walker and barrett wouldn't drag them down that much. I find the kool-aid reference quite offensive by the way. why add that - does it somehow contribute to your argument or is it just meant to irk me?

 

I am sorry that you took offense. My intention was not to irk you at all, but rather to contribute to my argument by illustrating that your view is that of an overly optimistic fan. One of the few times you'll see that reference used approriately.

 

I made the following analogy a few weeks back in another thread. Starting with Zips' projections, and adjusting Patterson's & Perez's counting stats (but keeping their rate stats constant) downward to reflect the fact that they're not going to be starters on this team, and adding in the pitching staff's actual numbers from '05. Now, I realize that Patterson has since been traded away and it shouldn't be that hard to improve on his .298 OBP.

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB    K  SB CS 
Pierre*      cf  .293  .346  .364 162  676  92  198  22 10   2  61  50   41  52 22 
Walker*      2b  .277  .336  .435 125  451  60  125  26  3  13  57  40   49   1  2 
Lee          1b  .309  .398  .582 159  593 104  183  44  2  38 114  84  121  14  5 
Ramirez      3b  .302  .359  .541 142  549  83  166  33  1  32 104  45   75   1  2 
Jones*       rf  .261  .319  .433 145  541  71  141  26  2  21  76  42  121  11  7 
Barrett      c   .276  .342  .468 125  410  47  113  29  4  14  58  37   60   0  3 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137  470  64  136  16  4  14  56  42   77  10  5 
Cedeno       ss  .287  .332  .412 113  345  46   99  15  2   8  40  20   63  13  4 
pitchers     p   .202  .219  .277 162  336  25   68  12  2   3  18   6   97   1  2

Blanco       c   .204  .258  .351  81  225  22   46  12  0   7  27  15   39   0  2 
Hairston     2b  .273  .350  .378  98  333  44   91  22  2   3  31  31   39   9  9 
Patterson*   cf  .252  .298  .418  57  220  29   55   9  2   8  27  14   57   9  3 
Perez#       ss  .259  .288  .353  55  188  18   49  10  0   2  18   7   17   2  1 
Mabry        rf  .240  .295  .407 112  246  26   59  15  1   8  32  20   63   0  0 

Totals           .274  .330  .431 162 5583 731 1529 291 35 173 719 463  919 123 67
2005 CUBS        .270  .324  .440 162 5584 703 1506 323 23 194 674 419  920  65 39

 

Raising the estimates on Cedeno (.332 to .358) and Murton (.350 to .378) will only add about .006 to the estimated team OBP. Finding another .010 to .012 in OBP to bring this roster up to where they're pushing .350 is, in my opinion, overly optimistic.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

.350 is a pretty lofty goal for any team. The only NL teams the last 4 years to reach it are the 2003 Cardinals at exactly .350 and the '04 Giants(helped no doubt by Bonds' .609 OBP) at .357

[CarolinaCubFan]

 

The Cubs could have 4-6 .300 hitters if those two meet those projections. If that happens, the team OBP should push .350. I would like to see that very much.

 

That's just the Kool Aid talking. If Cedeno & Murton managed to put up OBP's of .358 and .378 respectively, that woluld bring the team OBP into the .335 to .336 range. Now, that's light years better than last year, but still light years away from pushing .350.

 

No, to get 6 players hitting .300 would push Pierre and Jones into that .350 as well. certainly walker and barrett wouldn't drag them down that much. I find the kool-aid reference quite offensive by the way. why add that - does it somehow contribute to your argument or is it just meant to irk me?

 

I am sorry that you took offense. My intention was not to irk you at all, but rather to contribute to my argument by illustrating that your view is that of an overly optimistic fan. One of the few times you'll see that reference used approriately.

 

I made the following analogy a few weeks back in another thread. Starting with Zips' projections, and adjusting Patterson's & Perez's counting stats (but keeping their rate stats constant) downward to reflect the fact that they're not going to be starters on this team, and adding in the pitching staff's actual numbers from '05. Now, I realize that Patterson has since been traded away and it shouldn't be that hard to improve on his .298 OBP.

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB    K  SB CS 
Pierre*      cf  .293  .346  .364 162  676  92  198  22 10   2  61  50   41  52 22 
Walker*      2b  .277  .336  .435 125  451  60  125  26  3  13  57  40   49   1  2 
Lee          1b  .309  .398  .582 159  593 104  183  44  2  38 114  84  121  14  5 
Ramirez      3b  .302  .359  .541 142  549  83  166  33  1  32 104  45   75   1  2 
Jones*       rf  .261  .319  .433 145  541  71  141  26  2  21  76  42  121  11  7 
Barrett      c   .276  .342  .468 125  410  47  113  29  4  14  58  37   60   0  3 
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137  470  64  136  16  4  14  56  42   77  10  5 
Cedeno       ss  .287  .332  .412 113  345  46   99  15  2   8  40  20   63  13  4 
pitchers     p   .202  .219  .277 162  336  25   68  12  2   3  18   6   97   1  2

Blanco       c   .204  .258  .351  81  225  22   46  12  0   7  27  15   39   0  2 
Hairston     2b  .273  .350  .378  98  333  44   91  22  2   3  31  31   39   9  9 
Patterson*   cf  .252  .298  .418  57  220  29   55   9  2   8  27  14   57   9  3 
Perez#       ss  .259  .288  .353  55  188  18   49  10  0   2  18   7   17   2  1 
Mabry        rf  .240  .295  .407 112  246  26   59  15  1   8  32  20   63   0  0 

Totals           .274  .330  .431 162 5583 731 1529 291 35 173 719 463  919 123 67
2005 CUBS        .270  .324  .440 162 5584 703 1506 323 23 194 674 419  920  65 39

 

Raising the estimates on Cedeno (.332 to .358) and Murton (.350 to .378) will only add about .006 to the estimated team OBP. Finding another .010 to .012 in OBP to bring this roster up to where they're pushing .350 is, in my opinion, overly optimistic.

 

Hey Fred, just for fun, what would it be if we were able to swap Jones for Abreu as well?

[Fred Hornkohl]

.350 is a pretty lofty goal for any team. The only NL teams the last 4 years to reach it are the 2003 Cardinals at exactly .350 and the '04 Giants(helped no doubt by Bonds' .609 OBP) at .357

 

To further illustrate, the Phillies led the league last year with a .348 OBP.

 

2005            AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR   TB RBI  BB   SO  SB  CS     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Philadelphia  5542 807 1494 282  35 167 2347 760 639 1083 116  27  0.270  0.348  0.423  0.771
Cincinnati    5565 820 1453 335  15 222 2484 784 611 1303  72  23  0.261  0.339  0.446  0.785
St. Louis     5538 805 1494 287  26 170 2343 757 534  947  83  36  0.270  0.339  0.423  0.762
Florida       5502 717 1499 306  32 128 2253 678 512  918  96  38  0.272  0.339  0.409  0.748
Colorado      5542 740 1477 280  34 150 2275 704 509 1103  65  32  0.267  0.333  0.411  0.744
San Diego     5502 684 1416 269  39 130 2153 655 600  977  99  44  0.257  0.333  0.391  0.724
Atlanta       5486 769 1453 308  37 184 2387 733 534 1084  92  32  0.265  0.333  0.435  0.768
Arizona       5550 696 1419 291  27 191 2337 670 606 1094  67  26  0.256  0.332  0.421  0.753
Milwaukee     5448 726 1413 327  19 175 2303 689 531 1162  79  34  0.259  0.331  0.423  0.754
Los Angeles   5433 685 1374 284  21 149 2147 653 541 1094  58  35  0.253  0.326  0.395  0.721
CUBS          5584 703 1506 323  23 194 2457 674 419  920  65  39  0.270  0.324  0.440  0.764
NY Mets       5505 722 1421 279  32 175 2289 683 486 1075 153  40  0.258  0.322  0.416  0.738
Pittsburgh    5573 680 1445 292  38 139 2230 656 471 1092  73  30  0.259  0.322  0.400  0.722
Houston       5462 693 1400 281  32 161 2228 654 481 1037 115  44  0.256  0.322  0.408  0.730
Washington    5426 639 1367 311  32 117 2093 615 491 1090  45  45  0.252  0.322  0.386  0.708
San Francisco 5462 649 1427 299  26 128 2162 617 431  901  71  35  0.261  0.319  0.396  0.715

[Fred Hornkohl]

Hey Fred, just for fun, what would it be if we were able to swap Jones for Abreu as well?

 

Replacing Jones ('06 Zips projection = .319) with Abreu ('05 actual = .405) would raise the team OBP by just under .010...... bringing the team OBP to somewhere around .340 to .341.

[stitchface]

Fred,

I don't really care - the reason I made the point is that this forum is seen as increasingly hostile and unfriendly by many and I think those kind of statements lead to that sort of thing. I think you are a great poster actually - I obviously hadn't done any math when I made the statement and your correction is certainly valid - I just think perhaps we could say something more like: my analysis based on this indicates you are overly optimistic instead of invoking kool-aid. yea, its overly sensitive, but I think it leads to better discussion and less hostility.

 

Two points:

1. I don't see those numbers as realistic.

2. I was including Jones and Pierre as over .300. If you review those zips, Jones obp is clearly a drag and a return to .300 would greatly boost the Cubs obp. Making the Abreu switch shows that its not enough I see.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Fred,

I don't really care - the reason I made the point is that this forum is seen as increasingly hostile and unfriendly by many and I think those kind of statements lead to that sort of thing. I think you are a great poster actually - I obviously hadn't done any math when I made the statement and your correction is certainly valid - I just think perhaps we could say something more like: my analysis based on this indicates you are overly optimistic instead of invoking kool-aid. yea, its overly sensitive, but I think it leads to better discussion and less hostility.

 

Two points:

1. I don't see those numbers as realistic.

2. I was including Jones and Pierre as over .300. If you review those zips, Jones obp is clearly a drag and a return to .300 would greatly boost the Cubs obp. Making the Abreu switch shows that its not enough I see.

 

Points well taken, all. I'm not about invoking hostility on this board. Again, I apologize.

 

Zips' numbers may indeed not be realistic. In my opinion, it's kind of a crap shoot anyway, but it does give a starting point for hot stove discussions.

 

Trading Jones for Abreu, the increases mentioned for Cedeno & Murton, plus a couple of career years by others would just about do it, no?

[stitchface]

Fred,

I don't really care - the reason I made the point is that this forum is seen as increasingly hostile and unfriendly by many and I think those kind of statements lead to that sort of thing. I think you are a great poster actually - I obviously hadn't done any math when I made the statement and your correction is certainly valid - I just think perhaps we could say something more like: my analysis based on this indicates you are overly optimistic instead of invoking kool-aid. yea, its overly sensitive, but I think it leads to better discussion and less hostility.

 

Two points:

1. I don't see those numbers as realistic.

2. I was including Jones and Pierre as over .300. If you review those zips, Jones obp is clearly a drag and a return to .300 would greatly boost the Cubs obp. Making the Abreu switch shows that its not enough I see.

 

Points well taken, all. I'm not about invoking hostility on this board. Again, I apologize.

 

Zips' numbers may indeed not be realistic. In my opinion, it's kind of a crap shoot anyway, but it does give a starting point for hot stove discussions.

 

Trading Jones for Abreu, the increases mentioned for Cedeno & Murton, plus a couple of career years by others would just about do it, no?

 

I know you're not.

 

I wasn't including pitchers when I was thinking about it to be honest - that is a huge drag. I think if Walker is closer to career norm and jones exceeds those projections by 30 points or so (not an impossibility if a tad unlikely), then the 8 position players could be there. Regardless of the actual team OBP, the good news would be a better distribution of offensive contributions.

[Mark Priors Calves]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll agree that Murton won't get the .318 BA and .378 OBP, but I'd say he gets 13 HRs and 53 RBI.

 

I don't think there's any point in projecting RBI's, and I guess he might get the HR, that part being accurate is almost irrelevent to me in light of the total production.

 

The reason I included the RBI's was considering where Murton will probably bat in the lineup. If he's hitting 6th, then he should easily eclipse 53 RBI's. I understand your point about RBI's being irrelevant to overall production, but Murton should put up at least 53 RBI's and 13 HRs.

[stitchface]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll agree that Murton won't get the .318 BA and .378 OBP, but I'd say he gets 13 HRs and 53 RBI.

 

I don't think there's any point in projecting RBI's, and I guess he might get the HR, that part being accurate is almost irrelevent to me in light of the total production.

 

The reason I included the RBI's was considering where Murton will probably bat in the lineup. If he's hitting 6th, then he should easily eclipse 53 RBI's. I understand your point about RBI's being irrelevant to overall production, but Murton should put up at least 53 RBI's and 13 HRs.

 

If the Cubs #6 hitter doesn't surpass 53 rbis, we're in big big trouble.

[wade]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll agree that Murton won't get the .318 BA and .378 OBP, but I'd say he gets 13 HRs and 53 RBI.

 

I don't think there's any point in projecting RBI's, and I guess he might get the HR, that part being accurate is almost irrelevent to me in light of the total production.

 

The reason I included the RBI's was considering where Murton will probably bat in the lineup. If he's hitting 6th, then he should easily eclipse 53 RBI's. I understand your point about RBI's being irrelevant to overall production, but Murton should put up at least 53 RBI's and 13 HRs.

 

This link looks at what Murton and John Rodriguez did after their call ups last year. The author draws a favorable conclusion for Matt.

 

Man, it would be a tremendous boost if Murton had a break out year.

[Lefty]

I don't have the James book, but is it possible that the Cedeno and Murton numbers are their minor league equivalencies from last year? Their minor league numbers were terrific and their major league numbers from last year were consistent with that.