Your Realistic RF for 2006 will be:

[Gunned]

I've heard all the rumors that Patterson won't take instruction, but I wonder if Walt Hriniak could get through to him. It might be worth a few bucks spent by the Cubs to check it out. Even the Patterson haters have to admit that there is that "potential" that would be amazing if it ever came to be.

 

Corey can take the all the instruction in the world, it still wont change the fact that he's just not a natural baseball player. He's the classic toolsy athletic player who doesn't have any natural feel for the game. There have been thousands of these guys that have gone through the MLB through the years, and there will be thousands more. The only difference is that instead of calling them the next Odibe McDowell, we'll call them the next Corey Patterson.

 

And this wasn't just one bad year, he's had these problems since day 1. He's always been a highly rated prospect more due to his tools than his production, dating all the way back to the minors. They are the epitome of what the Sabermetrics disciples are supposed disciplined and objective enough to discern, yet somehow when its your prospect on your team people even the most skeptical get star-struck by what could be. Let's face it, I don't care how atheltically gifted he is, if Hendry were to trade even the most throwaway pieces for a player on another team with Corey's numbers and salary and gave him a spot on the roster (much less dibs on the corner outfield spot) we would all be flipping out. The server would blow into tiny smithereens. Its because he came through the Cubs minor leagues and we've been tracking him for the last 5 years and reading all of his articles and dreaming about what could be that we have invested too much in him emotionally to face reality. With this many AB's in this bad of numbers ... if Corey were to turn his career around it would be the anamoly of all anamolies.

 

You don't KNOW that Patterson won't produce next year. I'm not saying he is Lou Brock. All I'm saying is he DOES HAVE potential. And if he hits .270+ (or even .250 for that matter), hits 20+ HRs and has 60-75 RBIs and 25+SBs he'll likely equal or out produce all the RFs left out there except Abreu or Manny. YOU are the one who is looking through your own pre-conceived notions about Patterson, NOT ME.

 

What makes you think he can even hit .250? Did you even watch him play last year? He would go days at a time without even putting the ball into play. He's ... not ... good ... at ... baseball.

[professahesse]

]

 

What makes you think he can even hit .250? Did you even watch him play last year?

 

How about he hit better than that in 2003 AND 2004? Of course I saw him last year. I think that if they just worked on him (real hard by the way) to discipline himself about the strike zone, let him swing away like he did in 03 and 04 and continue to learn to bunt he'd find himself. He doesn't have to lead off now, we can place him down the order so the pressure is off, eliminate the distractions, just let the kid mature and he'll get there IMO. The guy had way too many "swing thoughts" last year. Let Patterson be Patterson.

 

It might not happen too. Thats a possiblity. But I think all of the godawful lament that there's no chance that he'll do anything is more overly effected frustration parading as baseball knowledge than is warranted.

[Laura]

If we guesstimated 25 HRs over a full season from Murton -- and that's projecting that his production from last season carried over to next season -- the Cubs will have succeeded in going from projected OF HR production of

 

Murton - 25 HRs

Patterson - let's go with the happy-happy "he'll repeat those '03 numbers next year" prediction and give him 25 HRs for the season

&

Burnitz -- probably still good for 25ish HRs and he did catch the ball rather well last season

 

(75)

 

to

Murton - 25 HRs

Pierre - let's be optimistic and count him for a career-high 5

Patterson - 25 HRs

 

(55)

 

Cubs will need a lot of stolen bases to make that up. I think Option 2 is more expensive as well.

 

If hopes were to be pinned on a Patterson resurgence, he should have stayed the CFer. I do not see a rosy outcome with Corey as a starting RFer and I'm just hoping that Hendry is blowing smoke with that thought.

 

No problems with him being tendered; I have doubts as to whether being a true 4th/5th OFer would give him the reps and opportunity to rebound.

 

If you do believe that booing has a negative impact on his performance ... well, let's just hope he gets off to a good start.

[professahesse]

Well yeah, but Projected and Actual are two different things. We had what 57 total HRs from our outfield (Lawton may have had one or so I don't know) so if we get 55 this year but CPAT hits .270 and steals 30+, Pierre hits .300 and steals 60, Cedeno hits. 275 and steals 25+ I say we score alot more runs and win alot more games, especially if the Staff stays healthy and the bullpen improves like it very well could.

[Laura]

Right -- if they all match or exceed their career best years in SBs, HRs and average (full season), it'll be awesome.

 

Maybe Wood, Prior, Z and Maddux will do the same! Yee-haw!

[XZero771679666304]

Right -- if they all match or exceed their career best years in SBs, HRs and average (full season), it'll be awesome.

 

Maybe Wood, Prior, Z and Maddux will do the same! Yee-haw!

 

No kidding, who does he think we are, the Cardinals?

 

Anyway, if Hendry did go with Patterson in right, what would become of all the money left to spend?

[professahesse]

Right -- if they all match or exceed their career best years in SBs, HRs and average (full season), it'll be awesome.

 

Maybe Wood, Prior, Z and Maddux will do the same! Yee-haw!

 

No kidding, who does he think we are, the Cardinals?

 

Anyway, if Hendry did go with Patterson in right, what would become of all the money left to spend?

 

Manny or Abreu at the deadline. And the stats I listed for the guys are not outrageously inflated or beyond reasonable attainment.

[Fred Hornkohl]

If I were the Cubs i'd just play the rookies, Cedeno, Pie, and Murton. If they put up the numbers Bill Jame projected i think we have a very good chance of making the playoffs. If not by 2007 they should all be ready for a big years.

 

I got this from Gammons...Cubs CF Felix Pie to hit 21 HR and an .874 OPS; Cubs INF Ronnie Cedeno .310 with an .800 OPS; Murton .318 with an .859 OPS.

 

Far be it from me to cast aspersions on Mr. Gammons' relative level of native intellegence, but here are some strikingly different projections for 2006 for Murton, Cedeno, and Pie from Zip's.

 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 	
Murton       lf  .289  .350  .430 137 470  64 136 16  4 14  56  42  77 10  5 	
Cedeno       ss  .287  .332  .412 113 345  46  99 15  2  8  40  20  63 13  4 
Pie          cf  .273  .319  .409  87 330  59  90 11  5  8  33  20  93 17 10 		

 

Zip's didn't do the addition for us, but those OPS totals come out to be: Murton (0.780), Cedeno (0.744), and Pie (0.728). Now, I'm not suggesting for a minute that Zip's is the final word on accurate prognostications, but I'll bet you a cyber nickel that their numbers, in this example, come closer than the numbers you've quoted above.

[Laura]

And the stats I listed for the guys are not outrageously inflated or beyond reasonable attainment.

 

And just because I have doubts about the viability of Corey being the starting RFer doesn't make me a "Corey hater." I'd like nothing more than to see him kick some butt in a Cubs uni.

 

He is coming off a disappointing year. A big complaint I hear from his supporters who have been following his career for longer than I have is the way he's been stuck willy-nilly into different slots on an ad-hoc basis ... depending on whatever the most desperate need at the time was. Lead-off guy? Stick Corey there, he's fast. Power hitter, especially while Sosa is hurt? Bat Corey 3-4-5-6. Can't get on base? Have Corey learn to bunt-single even when he's struggling to make contact.

 

Sticking him in RF because he's the least onerous of available options seems to be more of the same. Doesn't seem to me that he's being put in a position to succeed. If anything, it's really upping the ante and the pressure. It's one thing to struggle at the plate in CF ... in RF, you're expected to hit. I'm not sure how many RFers are hidden in the 8-9 (AL) slot when they struggle.

 

I'm assuming that despite any recent statements to the contrary, he's still not the first or second or third choice for RF. If he ends up starting opening day, I'll root for him. But it's going to be forced optimism, because I really do think it could get ugly fast (as in Boo City) if he struggles ... and that's not something I care to watch. Again.

[XZero771679666304]

And the stats I listed for the guys are not outrageously inflated or beyond reasonable attainment.

 

And just because I have doubts about the viability of Corey being the starting RFer doesn't make me a "Corey hater." I'd like nothing more than to see him kick some butt in a Cubs uni.

 

He is coming off a disappointing year. A big complaint I hear from his supporters who have been following his career for longer than I have is the way he's been stuck willy-nilly into different slots on an ad-hoc basis ... depending on whatever the most desperate need at the time was. Lead-off guy? Stick Corey there, he's fast. Power hitter, especially while Sosa is hurt? Bat Corey 3-4-5-6. Can't get on base? Have Corey learn to bunt-single even when he's struggling to make contact.

 

Sticking him in RF because he's the least onerous of available options seems to be more of the same. Doesn't seem to me that he's being put in a position to succeed. If anything, it's really upping the ante and the pressure. It's one thing to struggle at the plate in CF ... in RF, you're expected to hit. I'm not sure how many RFers are hidden in the 8-9 (AL) slot when they struggle.

 

I'm assuming that despite any recent statements to the contrary, he's still not the first or second or third choice for RF. If he ends up starting opening day, I'll root for him. But it's going to be forced optimism, because I really do think it could get ugly fast (as in Boo City) if he struggles ... and that's not something I care to watch. Again.

 

I am not the least bit thrilled by the prospect of Corey in RF, but putting him there and batting him 6th or 7th would be the best thing to do for him if he stays (which I doubt will happen). People have been saying for years that Corey would be best suited as a middle of the order hitter. The problem is that Corey would need protection in the lineup, but putting him far up enough to facilitate that is a huge gamble.

 

I just think Hendry is trying to up his trade value. Corey needs a change of scenery in the worst possible way.