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  • Chicago Cubs Trade & Free Agent Rumors

    Follow the latest Chicago Cubs trade and free agent rumors, along with quick notes on the big league club, the minor leagues and the draft.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been widely rumored the Cubs would be willing to part with the young (and largely positionless) Christopher Morel this offseason and when it comes to the Cubs' potential acquisition of oft-injured starter Tyler Glasnow, Morel's name has been mentioned.
    It is expected that Tampa Bay will move Glasnow before the season starts; with one year remaining of team control, trading a starting pitcher is a textbook Rays-ian move. Not only that but the right-hander's $25 million salary in 2024 puts a large dent in the always-frugal Rays payroll planning.
    Morel, 25 years old, has played all non-pitcher/catcher positions on the diamond for the Cubs over the past two seasons. He has a solid 110 OPS+ over 854 plate appearances but seemingly does not factor into the Cubs' long term plans at any position.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    The closely-guarded secret that is Shohei Ohtani contract negotiations are taking a turn against the Cubs, reports USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
    Recently, we've seen a spate of teams shift focus away from Ohtani. With the Mets, Red Sox, and others moving away from Ohtani, it felt the Cubs were part of a dwindling set of serious competitors for the two-way player's services. Now it appears, for unknown reasons, the Cubs may need to do the same.
    Who does that leave in the mix? We haven't heard anything at all from the Yankees but there are rumors swirling around the Giants and Blue Jays; Ohtani has reportedly met with both over the past several days.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jeff Passan of ESPN reported today that the Mets, Rangers, and Red Sox are shifting their focus away from free agent Shohei Ohtani. The Rangers, recent big-spenders in free agency, could be in a state of flux with reports being released they could be the next victim of the Bally Sports bankruptcy.
    This follows reports that the Mariners are also unlikely to sign the free agent two-way player.
    As the field narrows, this is good for the Cubs and Cubs fans. Given the Padres' recent financial troubles and the unfortunate death of primary stakeholder Peter Seidler, they feel like an unlikely destination for Ohtani.
    By most accounts, that whittles Ohtani's potential suitors to four teams: the Los Angeles Dodgers (widely believed to be the favorites), the San Francisco Giants, the New York Yankees, and the Chicago Cubs.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jon Morosi has reported the Cubs and Reds are interested in starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow. Both pitchers have one year remaining before free agency.
    While both starters have persistent injury concerns, Bieber dropped off in 2023 in a way that Glasgow did not. Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, has gone from striking out over 14 batters per nine that year to only 7.5 batters per nine in 2023.
    Glasnow, while more consistent in performance, has suffered endless setbacks during his career. In 2023, he made a career-best 21 starts. His previous high was just 14 starts in 2021.
    Glasnow will earn $25 million in 2024 while Bieber has yet to go through arbitration but is expected to make around $12 million.
     
    Rex Buckingham
    Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Cardinals are nearing the finalization of a deal to bring free agent starting pitcher Sonny Gray to St Louis.
    The Cardinals finished in fifth place last season in large part because their rotation (and pitching staff in general) imploded. They have pursued starters aggressively early in the offseason, picking up Kyle Gibson before Thanksgiving and now it appears they're going to add Gray to the mix.
    Gray, 34 years old, had what is probably the best season of his career in 2023, finishing second in the Cy Young Award while pitching for the Twins.
    UPDATE: Sonny Gray has agreed to a three year, $75 million deal with St Louis.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Daniel Kramer of MLB.com is reporting that the Mariners are unlikely to pursue free agent Shohei Ohtani this winter. The Mariners were considered players for Ohtani as we approached the offseason.
    One fewer team in the mix is good news for the Cubs, who are expected to be aggressive pursuing the two-way player this offseason. Additionally, rumors are circling that Ohtani plans to make a decision early in the offseason, perhaps even before the Winter Meetings in early December.
    The major players in the race for Ohtani are the usual suspects: Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs. Given the sky-high asking price Ohtani will demand, two-thirds of baseball teams were out of the running before it began.
    Stay tuned, we'll cover any and all Ohtani news as it happens.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Now that non-tender day has come and gone, the free agent list is as robust as it will be all winter.
    The Cubs have many, long-reaching choices in front of them. With the departure of Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman in free agency, the team is considerably worse now than it was on the final day of the season.
    Unfortunately, the positional player market is the thinnest we've seen in years. But the pitching free agent class it quite deep, if not particularly great at the ace level.
    Matthew Trueblood
    Jesse Rogers dropped an article this morning loaded with a lot of juicy rumors, including a repeated, seemingly thematic return to Shohei Ohtani as the focal point of the Cubs' offseason.
    That's awfully juicy, in itself, but Rogers also mentions that the Cubs are much less likely to retain Cody Bellinger than to sign Ohtani. That sentence, with the embedded implication that they have some measurable, significant chance to sign Ohtani at all, is exciting, but it's also newsworthy for the implication that Bellinger and Scott Boras are more likely to find their payday elsewhere--an idea on which Rogers then expands quite a bit.
    Already, there's more smoke than I might have expected there to be around the Cubs and Ohtani. That doesn't mean we should sound the fire alarms yet. No one is saying they're the favorites for him. It's just becoming clear how much they will try, and that their offseason could very well turn on their pursuit of him.
    Other notes in here, by the way, address Pete Alonso's potential availability (with Christopher Morel as a centerpiece going the other way; that seems improbable to me, but it's compelling) and the notion of a Cubs-Brewers trade involving Corbin Burnes (whoa). It's a fun little digest of rumors for a Thursday morning.
    Photo credit: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
    Brock Beauchamp
    Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic are reporting the Cubs might be interested in signing first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
    Hoskins, who will be entering his age 31 season in 2024, missed all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL he suffered in Spring Training. He has a career 125 OPS+ and should he return to form, is one of the more potent bats available in this weak free agents position player class.
    The Cubs have options at first base but if they're truly interested in trading Christopher Morel and do not re-sign Cody Bellinger, first base is wide open. It's unlikely the team will be keen to hand the job to Matt Mervis on Opening Day so it's likely they do some amount of roster shuffling to improve the team at first. Hoskins is probably the best bat and will likely be looking for a short-term contract to reestablish value so the deal makes sense from both sides.
    It should be noted Hoskins is a Boras client.
    Brock Beauchamp
    With the abruptly-ended GM Meetings now over, reporters are putting together their notes and while the Cubs have remained mum on the subject, rival executives expect the North Siders to be in play for Ohtani this winter.
    When Ohtani posted to MLB, he almost exclusively negotiated with west coast teams before landing with the Angels (a decision he surely regrets at this point). While he didn't speak to any New York or east coast teams, he did take the Cubs' calls.
    We really have no idea what is in Ohtani's head, as he's been very quiet on his expectations. He'll also basically write his own contract. If he wants a 13-year deal, he'll get it. If he wants an 8-year deal with an enormous AAV, he'll get it. If he wants opt-outs every two years, he'll get it. Pure dollars are not going to get it done in this specific case and, unlike most free agent deals, teams will be selling themselves to Ohtani. Can the Cubs make a compelling pitch? Several rival General Managers seem to think so:
     
    Bertz
    Justin Turner is still a very solid hitter, but probably has no business at third base at this point.
    Jon Morosi tweeted that Turner is a good match for the Cubs and points out that the Brewers (while Counsell was manager there) made a push to sign him following the 2020 season. The Cubs are in need of a third baseman but it requires some squinting to see Turner being a guy you want to trot out to the hot corner every day, or even maybe most days.
    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been reported the Cubs are likely to entertain offers for Christopher Morel, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Morel, 24 years old, has posted a career 110 OPS+ over 854 career plate appearances. He's defensively flexible in the sense that he can hold a glove and stand in a specific spot but isn't known for being a plus glove anywhere on the field. His bat still has some projection in it given his age but unless it does, he'll likely remain a bat-first utility or 10th man in a lineup.
    Morel is pre-arbitration so he has years of team control remaining, which could make him appealing to a smaller market team with an open contention window. Given the Cubs' needs at several roster spots, it's hard to predict what kind of package they could be looking for in a Morel trade.
    Brock Beauchamp
    The Athletic published this great piece from Sahadev Sharma, interviewing baseball personnel about Cody Bellinger and what to expect this winter.
    In it, they run through the ups and downs of Cody Bellinger since he won the MVP award in 2019, his later fall from grace, and his 2023 rebound with the Cubs. There's a lot to unpack, as they talk in relative detail about his successful 2023 campaign and some of the underlying metrics that still give cause for concern, such as his continued unimpressive exit velocity and hard-hit balls that led to a .319 BABIP, the highest of Bellinger's career.
    There's also a lot to like about Bellinger: he's still only 28 years old and his athleticism and defensive flexibility lend weight to the idea that he will age well through a long-term contract.
    Personally, I'm generally against paying long-term for a player based on one season of play. Yes, Bellinger had quite a track record from 2017-2019 but that drop-off, followed by underlying metric concerns, make me question committing 5+ years to him.
    Couple that with Bellinger's agent, Scott Boras, often taking his clients deep into the offseason in an attempt to maximize the return on a contract, and the Cubs might be taking a significant risk by holding out on other options in hopes of landing Bellinger in January or even February.
    Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure what to think of this posting. Uwasawa has announced intention to post for MLB teams this winter. The 29-year-old righty turns 30 before the 2024 season will begin and is known as a finesse pitcher, offering a fastball that sits around 91mph.
    Over the past three seasons, Uwasawa has pitched roughly 490 innings with an ERA right around 3.00 but his strikeout rate is well under one batter per inning. Other Japanese pitchers have posted similar numbers and later had great success in Major League Baseball (see Maeda, Kenta). Maeda came to the Dodgers for his age 28 season but, similarly to Uwasawa, offers a fastball in the low-90s and struck out well under one batter per inning in Japan. Upon arriving in the US, Maeda's numbers jumped considerably as he began striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings during his MLB career.
    Like many Japanese pitchers, Uwasawa has a "kitchen-sink-and-the-entire-toolshed" pitch arsenal. He throws a four-seamer, forkball, cutter, changeup, slider, and knuckle curve. Reports on the efficacy of his secondary and tertiary offerings vary.
    Recently, Uwasawa held a throwing session for several MLB teams and the Cubs were in attendance.
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to 670 The Score, the Cubs are interested in a trade for who is probably the best all-around hitter in baseball, Juan Soto.
    Soto was traded to the Padres at the trade deadline in 2022. The 25-year-old lefty has a career 157 OPS+ with a .421 on-base percentage. He also becomes a free agent after the 2024 season and because his agent is Scott Boras, he'll likely explore that option.
    The Padres, after making two hard pushes for a championship and making it to the NLCS in 2022, are reportedly cutting nearly $50 million from payroll in 2024. Despite having only one year remaining, the price for Soto will remain high and suitors plentiful.
    Is this a smart move for the Cubs front office? Does Soto fill a need large enough to warrant the price?
    Brock Beauchamp
    It has been reported by 670 The Score that the Cubs and starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks have discussed a contract extension.
    The Cubs hold a $16 million team option on Hendricks for the 2024 season with a $1.5 million buyout. Hendricks had a nice bounceback season in 2023, posting a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings pitched. He will be entering his age 34 season in 2024 and struggled through much of 2021 and 2022.
    It's hard to get a read on what a Hendricks extension might look like given his recent struggles. Is he willing to take less money and/or fewer years to stay with the Cubs or is he going to leverage his above-average 2023 season into a longer term deal?
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