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  • Chicago Cubs Trade & Free Agent Rumors

    Follow the latest Chicago Cubs trade and free agent rumors, along with quick notes on the big league club, the minor leagues and the draft.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    Jeff Passan of ESPN reported today that 34-year-old Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano will enter MLB free agency this offseason. 
    Sugano will turn 35 in a week and it's hard to predict what kind of results he can expect against MLB hitters. Once a relatively hard-thrower, the righty now sits around 92 mph and controls six pitches. He's the epitome of a crafty veteran, striking out only six batters per nine innings in NPB.
    Unlike most other Japanese baseball imports, Sugano is an unrestricted free agent. There will be no posting period and all teams can vie for his services as if he was a typical MLB free agent.
    Matthew Lenz
    Recently, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic ($) reported "the Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to a group that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad."
    The 2024 version of the starting rotation was a solid, yet unspectacular group that finished in the middle of MLB in multiple metrics, including K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA among others.
    While they do have young arms who will compete for a role in 2025, it's hard to settle with Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and or Cade Horton when the upcoming free agent class features names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and possibly Blake Snell, if he opts out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants. Even if they don't land one of the big names, one of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, and or Justin Verlander could provide more production and reliability than one of their younger arms.
    Darragh McDonald of MLBTR goes on to suggest a few trade partners for our Cubbies, stating "the trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussenreturned from longs absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on."
    If these reports are true and the Cubs are in fact going to add a starter, who would you like for them to target?
    Brock Beauchamp
    The wheels on the bus go 'round and 'round...
    Contrary to earlier reports from USA Today's Bob Nightengale, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic is saying sources close to Cody Bellinger suggest he is undecided whether to opt in to another year with the Cubs in 2025.
    This isn't surprising, as most opt-out clauses are an easy decision; either the player is clearly worth more than the contract or they're underperforming/injured and have no chance at matching the contract in place. Bellinger is straddling that line with a season (2.2 fWAR with eight games remaining) that makes it hard to judge whether a long-term contract will approach the $27.5 million is he owed by the Cubs in 2025.
    Bellinger has remained relatively healthy in 2024, playing 124 games as of this writing. The 29-year-old will have a difficult decision in the coming weeks, though thankfully unlike last offseason, he will have to make his decision to stay or leave just five days after the completion of the World Series.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Bob Nightengale (yes, I know) of The USA Today recently wrote that Cody Bellinger "Is Fully Expected" to remain with the Chicago Cubs in 2025.
    Bellinger, one of the infamous "Boras Four" last offseason, found the free agent market not to his liking and signed a three-year, $80 million contract late in the offseason. The contract includes opt-outs after each season. Bellinger, while still a very productive player somehow still under the age of 30, has seen his performance dip this season. After a wildly successful 2023 campaign that saw his OPS+ skyrocket back up to 138, it has drifted back down to 115 this season.
    The question for Bellinger is whether he wants to maximize overall dollars in a single contract or remain with the Cubs at a higher yearly rate. He is owed $27.5 million in 2025 and $25 million in 2026. It's unlikely any long-term contract he signs this offseason will approach those numbers on an AAV basis.
    Brock Beauchamp
    As we near the MLB Trade Deadline at the end of the month, rumors are starting to become more substantial and significant trades are now happening (AJ Puk and Randy Arozarena moved in two separate deals last night).
    When it comes to the Chicago Cubs, it seems like most of the rumors are swirling around starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. His contract, while not inexpensive, it reasonable and goes through the 2026 season at $18 million per season.
    The Astros' pitching staff has been devastated by injury and after an awful start to the season, they now find themselves in first place after passing the faltering Mariners in the AL West (a Mariners team that was on the receiving end of the Arozarena deal).
    At this point, it feels almost inevitable that Taillon will be traded given the amount of interest in him.
    Brock Beauchamp
    In the latest roundup over at The Athletic, a significant chunk of the trade deadline news was Cubs-centered. Here are some notes on the current state of the team and their thinking:
    They've resigned themselves to the expectation they will not buy at the trade deadline. Given the complicated contractual situation of players like Cody Bellinger, they're also unsure how many players will be appealing trade candidates to contenders. While they haven't completely ruled out trading top-tier players like Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner - who would bring an absolute haul in trade - they're not willing to punt on the 2025 season, either. Perhaps most interesting is that they do not appear to care whether they drop back under the first luxury tax threshold. If they make trades to bolster the farm, they're not particularly interested in bringing back lower-level prospects just to save some money.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported that the Cubs are considering trading starting pitcher Jameson Taillon before next week's trade deadline.
    Taillon, 32 years old, signed a four-year deal with the Cubs prior to the 2023 season. He is making $18 million this season and is also signed through the 2026 season at $18 million per year. The righty pitcher stumbled badly in the first year of his contract (4.84 ERA) but has rebounded nicely in 2024, posting a 3.10 ERA in 93 innings pitched.
    Taillon certainly has value to contending teams but given his age and a contract that goes through his age 34 season, it's hard to predict what kind of value teams will put on the additional years that will pay him $36 million in the final two years of the deal.
    Additionally, Bob Nightengale of USA Today added some weight to this report, mentioning the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have inquired on Taillon.
    Brock Beauchamp
    As the Cubs still sit on the fence of buying or selling at the trade deadline, it appears they're exploring what players they might pursue if they decide to buy. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, one of those targets is Toronto Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen.
    Should the Cubs decide to buy, this makes all the sense in the world. Jansen is a free agent at year's end, makes only $5 million this year, and is currently sporting a triple slash line of .223/.319/.397, good for a 103 OPS+. That's well above league average for the catching position.
    On the other hand, the Cubs have the worst catching corps in baseball and it's not close. They rank 30th in baseball with a -1.4 fWAR on the season, with their backstops hitting for an abysmal 39 wRC+. The two teams above them are the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins, truly company you do not want to keep in the year of 2024.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported on the Philadelphia Phillies releasing outfielder Whit Merrifield after a terrible start to the season. This leaves the Phillies with a new hole (if you can call it that on the stacked Phillies roster) to patch by the trade deadline: right-handed outfielder.
    While it was previously reported the Phillies were looking exclusively for center field help, Gelb reported they are now open to corner outfielders and are not averse to taking on longer contracts, even if it means they increase their already franchise-record payroll.
    While Ian Happ is a switch hitter, it's unlikely he fits the Phillies needs, as he's much better against right-handed pitching than he is left-handed. The Cubs also have Seiya Suzuki rostered for the next few years; he is paid $21 million this season and is under contract for $19 million in 2025 and 2026. Suzuki's defense has been... questionable... but that hasn't prevented Philadelphia from acquiring players in the past.
    Bertz
    The Philadelphia Phillies are an absolute powerhouse this season, currently sporting the best record in the game. One of their few holes in the lineup are at center field; Johan Rojas currently leads the team in plate appearances at the position and his dismal 60 OPS+ is a clear spot to upgrade down the stretch.
    The Phillies will have some choice in acquisitions, though. Along with Cody Bellinger potentially being available (pending medical results of his hit by pitch last night), the White Sox are looking to trade Luis Robert Jr.and the Marlins recently announced Jazz Chisholm Jr.is also on the block.
    While that's stiff competition, a healthy Bellinger should require far fewer trade assets to acquire.
    It's Ralph so take with all appropriate grains of salt.
    Edit: Additionally, it appears the Houston Astros, a team that has completely turned it around after a bad start to the season, are also interested in the services of Bellinger.
    Brock Beauchamp
    In his recent trade rumors roundup, Bob Nightengale briefly mentions the Cubs. According to Nightengale, the Cubs are telling potential suitors that they are undecided on whether they will sell at the deadline, which means the Cubs won't move on the market early.
    With several players under long-term deals, it might be difficult to be aggressive sellers at the deadline but should the Cubs decide to sell, Cody Bellinger and Jameson Taillon should be appealing to many contending teams.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Let's be upfront: this is the time of year when rumors are very squishy, sometimes intentionally. With a month remaining until the deadline, teams are neither confident in their needs nor are they willing to openly discuss which players they're pursuing. Jon Morosi, recently appearing on MLB Network, spoke about the Cubs and their likelihood of selling. He specifically mentioned middle infielder Nico Hoerner. From the clip - which isn't yet posted online - it's unclear whether Morosi is reporting that he specifically knows the Cubs are already in discussion with Seattle for Hoerner's services or that he suspects it is the case.
    Hoerner is a very good option for Seattle. He's signed through the 2026 season at a reasonable cost ($12 million that season) and fills a need for the Mariners, who are 26th in baseball in OPS. Hoerner's 94 OPS+ doesn't jump off the page but Seattle could certainly find a utility role for him, shuffling him between Jorge Polanco at second base and JP Crawford at short.
    Brock Beauchamp
    In a cooperative report published by The Athletic recently, the Yankees and Rangers have a "noticeable presence" around the Cubs, scouting the team in case the northsiders continue to slip down the standings.
    While Texas and New York could be (and likely are) scouting multiple Cubs players, the focus appears to be on Cody Bellinger. After a bounceback season in 2023, the CF/1B is having a decent, if unspectacular, 2024 with a 113 OPS+ and 1.1 rWAR.
    The complicated aspect of any Bellinger trade is his contract: he has a player option for 2025 and 2026 for $27.5 million and $25 million, respectively. It's hard to gauge how teams will value his worth in trade because they have no ability to control the situation: if Bellinger thrives, he likely opts out. If he struggles, the team remains on the hook for at least one more season at a relatively high cost.
    Matthew Lenz
    While rumors of Kelley Jansen being in the market have been swirling since the offseason, it may have been assumed he was off the market considering the Red Sox unexpected success in 2024. Instead, Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that rival executives believe "...there could be 'buyer-to-buyer' type trade this year..."
    While the price tag is hefty in both salary and player capital, the former elite reliever has done exceptional this year sporting a 2.30/2.13 ERA/FIP with a 19.1-percent K-BB and locking down 15/16 save opportunities. He would be an expensive but great addition for any team who needs bullpen help. While relievers are volatile creatures, it's an added bonus that an acquiring team would only be tied to him for this season.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Bob Nightengale (yes, I know) reported today that the Cubs have internally discussed pursuing the Blue Jays' star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    The Blue Jays could find themselves in a difficult position come July. While they're currently only two games out of the third Wild Card spot, they're also in last place in the American League East. The Jays' recent window of contention could be closing with several of their star position players entering free agency in the next year and a half while their MLB.com 24th-ranked farm system won't be providing much in the way of cost-controlled young talent in the immediate future.
    Guerrero Jr is back to raking (137 OPS+) after a mildly disappointing 2023 season. The 25-year-old slugger will become a free agent after the 2025 season.
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the White Sox are very open for business (despite it being early June) and are open to dealing oft-injured star outfielder Luis Robert Jr.
    Robert, who is signed through 2025 with two team options in 2026 and 2027, is scuffling a little this year (92 OPS+) but was stellar last season, posting a 5.0 rWAR season for the White Sox.
    The Cubs' offense in May was terrible, posting the 25th wRC+ in baseball. If Robert is healthy, he's likely going to hit better as the season progresses. What would it take to pry Robert away from the Southside?
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