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  • Chicago Cubs Trade & Free Agent Rumors

    Follow the latest Chicago Cubs trade and free agent rumors, along with quick notes on the big league club, the minor leagues and the draft.
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    Bertz
    The duo over at The Athletic has been plugged into the Cubs thinking this winter.  This morning, they provide a little clarity on the teams' pursuit of starting pitching, as well as some timing:
    The wait on the Juan Soto sweepstakes and how that impacts the Cody Bellinger market is mentioned as a factor in the Cubs' decision making.  Presumably that could cut both ways, either allowing directly for a SP to be brought in as part of a Bellinger trade, or freeing up money to pursue a wider range of free agents.
    Walker Buehler is name checked as a potential target.  Though that middle class of free agent starters is moving quickly, so he may be gone by the time any requisite trade dominos fall.
    Bertz
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen.
    As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting.
    On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names.  Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help.  Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw.
    Bertz
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere.  Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well.
    No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target.
    One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield.
    Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him?
    Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet
    While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs.
    Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper.  The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency.  Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget.
    From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year.  Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact  minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order.
     
    Matthew Lenz
    Hot off the press, Jon Morosi of MLB Network said the following about the Chicago Cubs (and Cincinnati Reds) regarding 25-year-old left-handed starter Garrett Crochet:
    Of note, he's also been linked to the Boston Red Sox on more than one occasion.
    Recently, the Chicago White Sox are said to be interested in prospects that are a little further away from the Majors as their current rebuild is going to be a multi-year effort.
    The 25-year-old southpaw became a full-time starter in 2024 after three seasons in a relief role and posted a 3.58 ERA / 2.69 FIP and an elite 29.6% K-BB rate across 146 innings. His 97 mile-per-hour fastball was one of the most effective pitches in baseball holding opponents to a .198 batting average and producing a run value of 15. He also has a cutter, sweeper, and changeup.
    Yes, the price will be immense but acquiring an elite 25-year-old, controllable starter is hard to pass up.
     
    Do you want the Cubs to deal with the South Siders?
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors recently wrote up a nice comprehensive list of teams that might be interested in trading for Cody Bellinger. They eliminated all teams operating under financial constraints (unfortunately, a significant portion of the league right now) and then looked for good on-field fits. Let's look at three teams that intrigued me:
    Toronto Blue Jays: With the big-budget Jays so often taking the role of bridesmaid in the pursuit of high-end free agents, it feels like they're destined to be scrambling for help after Juan Soto signs elsewhere. Their competitive window is likely going to close soon as some of their high-profile hitters enter free agency. Bellinger's short-term contract (one year, two at most) could fit well with a last-ditch attempt at competition.
    Los Angeles Angels: Every offseason, the Angels think they can compete. Every season, they fail to do so. While they're under new management now, ownership is the same and Arte Moreno loves to meddle in baseball affairs. Their farm system is bare but it won't take a haul to land Bellinger if the acquiring team takes on all the money. The Angels, as always, are unpredictable.
    New York Yankees: This is a very good fit if they don't re-sign Soto.
    It feels like any chance of a Bellinger trade rises significantly after Soto signs. If Soto signs next week, we could see Bellinger move quickly afterward. If Soto and agent Scott Boras decide to press the market, we could see Bellinger trade talks remain quiet into 2025.
    Bertz
    Echoing national reports, the local writers for The Athletic this morning indicated that the Cubs would be doing their offseason shopping in the "upper-middle" tier of the free agent market, trusting their pitching development to get the most out of their acquisition.
    Sharma and Mooney also indicated that the Qualifying Offer is a major factor of consideration in their targets, seemingly ruling out upper middle options like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea.
    Nate Eovaldi and Walker Buehler both get name checked as players who would fit the team's parameters, though it may also be that the Cubs instead turn to the trade market to do their shopping.
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is disappointing news but hardly surprising to Cubs fans.
    Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned that Jed Hoyer and the Cubs are "probably out" on the top end of the free agent market this season. That means no to Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell donning Cubs blue in 2025.
    Coupled with rumors of the Cubs slightly scaling back payroll and Cubs fans could be in for a long, dark winter after yet another mediocre 83-79 finish to the 2024 season.
     
    Transmogrified Tiger
    In a recent piece by The Athletic, rival front offices are suggesting that Jed Hoyer is interested in trading Cody Bellinger.
    This isn't startling news but it's still noteworthy. When Bellinger opted into the second year of his contract, speculation began about the future of the centerfielder and first baseman.
    The Cubs have both center field and first base covered in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, respectively.
    The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.
    Bertz
    The Cubs on Wednesday added reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels.  According to The Athletic the Cubs are still looking to further bolster both areas of the roster.
    Morgan not being the only planned reliever add this offseason is not surprising considering how often Jed Hoyer has used the word "depth" when discussing the bullpen.  Matt Thaiss at catcher was a little more ambiguous, though the team is thin at catcher in AAA as well so it's a position that could use some depth as well.
    Given that the Cubs have not yet spent significant money this winter, paired with neither position moving much yet in free agency (with the notable exception of Travis d'Arnaud), any player the team was eying before Wednesday's moves is likely still on the table.
    Matthew Lenz
    In his latest offseason update, Jeff Passan of ESPN identified Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Pivetta as two "upper-middle-tier starters" that the Cubs could pursue to solidify their starting rotation.
    Kikuchi is 33 years old and coming off a very productive second half of 2024 with the Houston Astros. After 106 so-so innings with the Toronto Blue Jays, he was moved at the trade deadline to help the 'Stros make their postseason push. He rewarded them with a 3.49 ERA / 3.11 FIP and a 24.8% K-BB rate. MLBTR ranks Kikuchi as their 12th best free agent and predicts him to get $60 million over three years in free agency.
    Pivetta is expected to decline the Qualifying Offer he received from the Boston Red Sox as Passan states that he will get a multiple year deal in the free agent market. Pivetta has been a very solid and reliable starter of his eight year career and , in 2024 he improved upon careers marks with a 4.07 FIP and a 22.9% K-BB rate. Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but that would be less of a concern at the spacious confines of Wrigley Field.
    Which of these two starters would you prefer the Cubs pursue?
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Roki Sasaki has nudged Juan Soto out of the limelight, at least for a day. The young Japanese phenom announced he will come to Major League Baseball in 2025.
    Sasaki, unlike last year's import Yoshinobu Yamamoto, will post under the minor league rules due to his age and experience in NPB. Remember when Shohei Ohtani came to America to play and all teams were in on him? Same thing here. There will be no $300 million contracts in play as with Yamamoto, meaning most teams should be courting the young right-hander this offseason.
    Sasaki has been simply phenomenal in Japan. He pitched all of the 2024 season as a 22-year-old and only turned 23 this week. In parts of three seasons in NPB, he has a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts in only 394 innings pitched.
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Cub to make the list was centerfielder Cody Bellinger, who may decide to opt out of his contract in a few days.
    At this point, Bellinger isn't a great fit for the Cubs. He's due to make $27.5 million in 2025 and has another opt-out clause following that season. The Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong roaming center and Michael Busch somewhat locked in at first base, making Bellinger a luxury on a team that doesn't seem eager to spend big in free agency this winter.
    Should Bellinger opt out, the Cubs will likely find suitors for his services. The center field free agent crop is thin this season and Bellinger would immediately become one of the best options available on the market. 
    Matthew Lenz
    The Rangers are reportedly looking to get under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. 
    MLBTR goes on to suggest that arbitration eligible players such as RHP Dane Dunning, OF Leody Taveras, and 1B Nathaniel Lowe as possible non-tender candidates. This was not suggested, but one route is to tender these players and then try to trade them to recoup some value. As the Minnesota Twins learned last season with Kyle Farmer, that can be a risky route to take. Other big contracts include Jacob DeGrom and Jon Gray although, considering they already have a need for starting pitching, they may not be overly willing to move those players.
    Looking at the arbitration players, the Cubs could use any of the three players listed for some added flexibility and depth on their active roster or in their pitching staff. Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras grade out as slightly above average defenders with decent bats, while Dane Dunning has experience as a starter and reliever with moderate success in both roles.
    Given Ray Davis' "number 1 priority" to get under the luxury tax threshold, any of these players could likely be had for a fairly cheap price in addition to their team friendly standing as arbitration eligible players.
    Adolis Garcia is another name they could pursue as a buy-low candidate, although the Texas Rangers may be more inclined to keep outfielder who made headlines during their 2023 World Series run.
    Should the Cubs pursue any of the Texas Rangers?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote a really nice piece about the Cubs' offseason pursuit of rotation arms. In it, he points out that historically, Jed Hoyer & Co. have avoided "bounceback" pitchers such as Luis Severino and Jack Flaherty. If they avoided that  kind of pitcher on a lesser prove-it deal, it makes even less sense for this front office to pursue those same pitchers on a multi-year contract.
    Whereas the Cubs have shown interest, and ultimately signed, pitchers they believe can be workhorses with steady-but-maybe-not-great upside in Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. In the case of Imanaga, the workhorse portion of that statement was certainly true but the performance level was beyond anyone's reasonable expectations.
    A pitcher that fits that mold this offseason is Max Fried. While the 30-year-old's ERA slipped a little in 2024 (128 ERA+), he has started over 25 games in three of the past four seasons.
    Give the article a read, it's a great early-offseason primer on how the Cubs might look at the rotation this winter.
    Brock Beauchamp
    At the last trade deadline, Jed Hoyer was in talks with the Los Angeles Angels about acquiring 24-year-old catcher Logan O'Hoppe. Ultimately, the deal fell through as the Angels stumbled their way to a 99-loss season.
    Miguel Amaya, on the other hand, thrived during the second half of the season, posting a .761 OPS in 50 games played. Still, according to sources from The Athletic's Patrick Mooney, the Cubs will pursue catching help this winter and Logan O'Hoppe is a likely target.
    O'Hoppe posted a 100 OPS+ in 2024 and has a bright future ahead of him; he will not become a free agent until after the 2028 season. The biggest hurdle in any trade is likely Angels owner Arte Moreno; a known meddler in baseball affairs, he often refuses to rebuild when necessary and dislikes trading away young players.
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