Dodgers Rumored to Have Deal to Send Top Prospect for $3 Million in IFA Money; Cubs Yet to Finalize Biggest IFA Deals

Well now, I might just be rooting for Sasaki to end up in LAD - something I didn't think I'd say. That'd be a really fun get for a team.

You'd presume, as well, that the Padres and the Blue Jays would need to set up their own deals, as well, to acquire that kind of IFA money - right? To at least compete with the LAD offer?

Getting greedy, I wonder if there's an arbitrage opportunity here.  Sell IFA funds to the Dodgers at a huge premium to help them get Sasaki over the line, and then buy back all/most of that IFA money at a discount from the Padres because the IFA market's fairly picked over at this point.  My understanding is that the Padres in anticipation of Sasaki did not allocate their full allotment in LatAm, so I don't think it's as simple for using their IFA money as calling guys up and saying "We're back on."

ok jed i was not familiar with your game

It’s a dangerous game to play. There are a few other teams involved in the waiting too. So suppose the Dodgers make a deal with another one of those other teams. Now then Jays and the Padres have funds to spend. They can poach a Cubs prospect who is probably already not very happy with the Cubs for making him wait. And even if he is ok waiting, maybe the other offer is better. Cubs don’t get Sasaki, a top prospect from the Dodgers for some IFA money and also don’t get all the IFA they are expecting to get. Obviously this is the worst case scenario, but it very well could happen. Especially if this isn’t done in the next day or two. 

Wait a minute, Zyhir Hope is a Top 10 MLB prospect?  That Michael Busch deal is going to end up looking bad, isn't it?

Cabada and Wilfri de la Cruz just announced... $3.8M between the 2 bonuses

2 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Cabada and Wilfri de la Cruz just announced... $3.8M between the 2 bonuses

Ok, so they still have over $2M left. So, different angle, if $3M gets the 9th best prospect in baseball, what does $2.2M get. If that IFA money is valued as something like a guy between 50-100 in the mlb prospect list, instead of trading a prospect for Cease could the Cubs trade $2.2M of IFA money, Assad and a lower level prospect to him? If you are the Padres and $2.2M allows you to get Sasaki, is that better than the Cubs offering Cassie+ the same guys as you offer with the $2.2M? I would say in that scenerio the $2.2 is more valuable. Regardless of what it would take to get Cease, my question is “is $2.2M more valuable than a guy like Cassie”? In this case, it appears to be. 

The Cubs agreed with two of their IFA players for a total of $3.5m. Conviently, that's $3m short of their budget.

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Conviently, that's $3m short of their budget.

Is there any significance to that amount?

Just now, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is there any significance to that amount?

Well, if the Dodgers have an agreement to acquire $3m IFA for Jose De Paula from an unidentified team (as per this rumor) and the Cubs managed to agree with two IFA players, and have $3m left...

There's some tea leaves there.

I missed the $3 million part of the rumor from the original post.  Sorry, that should have been obvious. 🙂

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs agreed with two of their IFA players for a total of $3.5m. Conviently, that's $3m short of their budget.

Looks to be $3.8M so they have around $2.4M to &2.5M left. But they can still probably do something with that money if the right deal came along. 

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Looks to be $3.8M so they have around $2.4M to &2.5M left. But they can still probably do something with that money if the right deal came along. 

Yeah, thought they had $6.5 but it was 6.2. So a little under $3m. But close.

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, thought they had $6.5 but it was 6.2. So a little under $3m. But close.

Same scenerio but a little less money. Honestly, I would rather use that IFA money to get a guy now. So instead of Cassie in a trade you trade the IFA money.  Cubs keep all their prospects, get their main 2 guys in the IFA market and get an asset for the team this year. Assad, IFA money and whatever else is needed for Cease, as an example. SD gets Sasaki. Then if Cease walks in one year, fans aeenr complain about losing Cassie. If they lose out on a 16 year old and he does become a star, there is no guarantee he would have been a star if he stayed with the Cubs. Can’t worry about that result. IMO a team in a position to win should be considering moving the IFA money for an asset now, not a prospect. Or at the very least,, it is another consideration. 

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Wait a minute, Zyhir Hope is a Top 10 MLB prospect?  That Michael Busch deal is going to end up looking bad, isn't it?

I guess it's tools and projection, numbers aren't eye popping.  Maybe, it because, it's the Dodgers?

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Wait a minute, Zyhir Hope is a Top 10 MLB prospect?  That Michael Busch deal is going to end up looking bad, isn't it?

I don't necessarily think that. Hope's had a good start to his career, some amazing EV's and statcast stuff. With that said I think we need to remember he's 19, has not advanced above A ball and the California League is somewhat infamous for up-lifiting hitters and making their performance look a bit better than it is. The Dodgers have had a few prospects like that in recent years. 

Ultimately, the Cubs weren't crazy to trade him. At the time of the deal, Hope was a toolsy 18-year old who was an 11th round pick, who signed for $400,000 (like a 3rd round slot). He had 43 (albeit very good) PA's in CPX. He was a general wild card flier type. The Cubs signed 18-year-old OF prospect Eli Lovach, their 11tth round pick in 2024, to a $650,000 bonus. If they were to trade Lovach tomorrow in a package for a Busch type...I think we'd all be 100% fine with it again. You'll win that trade 95 times out of 100, if not more, considering how lottery-tickety these types are. 

For Hope's sake I hope he's awesome, though. For our sake, IDC.

Wait, Hope is a Dodgers top 10 prospect or Top 10 in ALL of Baseball?  It may be a defensible trade from the Cubs prospective but it certainly is looking like a BANGER from the Dodgers perspective.  Ferris looked like he at least held his own as well.  The rich get richer.

10 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Wait, Hope is a Dodgers top 10 prospect or Top 10 in ALL of Baseball?  It may be a defensible trade from the Cubs prospective but it certainly is looking like a BANGER from the Dodgers perspective.  Ferris looked like he at least held his own as well.  The rich get richer.

Hope was ranked top-10 in baseball by BP, yes. #8. They seem to be higher than most of the rest of the industry. He's been in other's top-20.

Yeah, looks like, thus far, LAD has done well. 

You guys do realize we got rookie 1B who was 9th in OPS, 8th in wRC+ among all MLB 1B's right? I would say the Cubs have done pretty well in that trade. 

1 hour ago, Manny Trillos Brother said:

You guys do realize we got rookie 1B who was 9th in OPS, 8th in wRC+ among all MLB 1B's right? I would say the Cubs have done pretty well in that trade. 

"We'll See." said the Zen Master.  Obviously that applies to all parties involved.  Hey, I have no issue with Busch but if this was Busch's best season, would it be earth shattering?  Fangraphs has the Cubs projected 23rd in 1B Value in 2025 (all from Busch) - take with as many grains of salt as you like.  I think the Cubs are pretty pleased with what they've seen from Busch but I think they expect him to continue to improve.

The more concerning part of the trade is were the Cubs remiss in their assessment of Hope.  Maybe they weren't - maybe the Dodgers were just lucky.  Maybe Hope is selling Fords by 2027.  I believe Ferris was assumed to be the bigger piece.  I believe the feeling was that it stung a bit to give up Ferris but The (correct) feeling was that Busch could step in and man 1B right away.

11 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

"We'll See." said the Zen Master.  Obviously that applies to all parties involved.  Hey, I have no issue with Busch but if this was Busch's best season, would it be earth shattering?  Fangraphs has the Cubs projected 23rd in 1B Value in 2025 (all from Busch) - take with as many grains of salt as you like.  I think the Cubs are pretty pleased with what they've seen from Busch but I think they expect him to continue to improve.

The more concerning part of the trade is were the Cubs remiss in their assessment of Hope.  Maybe they weren't - maybe the Dodgers were just lucky.  Maybe Hope is selling Fords by 2027.  I believe Ferris was assumed to be the bigger piece.  I believe the feeling was that it stung a bit to give up Ferris but The (correct) feeling was that Busch could step in and man 1B right away.

If we are going to criticize the Cubs for trading a guy they signed in the 10th round a year before don’t we also have to give them credit for drafting a guy like him in round 10? Honestly he still has a long way to go. And Dodger prospects always get ranked better than they should. Bush was a good get. If either Ferris or Hope become solid players that is just the way it is. I am happy with Nusch.!

18 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

"We'll See." said the Zen Master.  Obviously that applies to all parties involved.  Hey, I have no issue with Busch but if this was Busch's best season, would it be earth shattering?  Fangraphs has the Cubs projected 23rd in 1B Value in 2025 (all from Busch) - take with as many grains of salt as you like.  I think the Cubs are pretty pleased with what they've seen from Busch but I think they expect him to continue to improve.

The more concerning part of the trade is were the Cubs remiss in their assessment of Hope.  Maybe they weren't - maybe the Dodgers were just lucky.  Maybe Hope is selling Fords by 2027.  I believe Ferris was assumed to be the bigger piece.  I believe the feeling was that it stung a bit to give up Ferris but The (correct) feeling was that Busch could step in and man 1B right away.

Setting aside my feelings on ranking a player with 1/3rd of a season in Low A as a Top 10 overall prospect, there's also a time value of money component here.  For instance, if Busch gives the Cubs 15 WAR from 2024-2029, and Hope/Ferris give the Dodgers 20 WAR from 2027-2032, is that a bad deal?

I will not set aside those feelings and slam the under on Hope being a Top 25 prospect in any publication 24 months from now

I hope it is us with that trade lined up, i didn’t realize Hope is 8 and Ferris 52 in all of baseball, this would take a little sting out of that. Even if it does help the Dodgers get one of the best pitchers in the world. 

It is going to be painful that perhaps 3 guys the Cubs traded are all ranked higher than the highest ranked Cub prospect come the midseason report.