Hey Cubs World,

Ill get back to evaluating the position roster performance after game 20 of the season. This is a short piece about the state of the pitching. 

Here's a list of insights so far:

The starters

1) No worries about Steele. Sure, Steele has struggled with health, but those struggles are minor. He's looked consistently like a top starter when healthy, and he will come back to 100 percent by Mid-May. He'll still give us 25 starts this year and earn his keep. 

(UPDATE: I WAS WRONG. SEASON ENDING SURGERY)

2) Imanaga should repeat his performance from last year, or even improve it.  Ignore his 1 bad game. The Rangers were overdue to hit. He's still an elite option and healthy as an ox. 

3) Boyd is fantastic.  Hes our #3 guy. Sure, he gave up a 3 run HR to Tommy Edman, but other than that he's been virtually unhittable. He looks like he could outpitch Steele this year and that's a tall order. I had my doubts but now I expect him to repeat last year's sub-3 ERA. He's got a formula... and it's maximum confusion. He even made Ohtani look foolish. 

4) Taillon has regressed, and could be demoted if that continues. I'm not terribly worried about his high ERA thus far, as he is showing quality start stuff, but I am seeing a guy who can't get KOs and gives up XBHs. He's looking like his 2023 self again- eeking out 6 innings for many quality starts and then occasional epic meltdown games- and those metltdowns need to stop., At this rate he projects to give up about 3 runs an outing- and thats 4.5 to 5 ERA territory. We simply can't get 92+ wins at that rate. He has a 50/50 chance of coming back to 2024 form. 

5) Ben Brown needs a AAA stint. I'm not ready to give up on him as a key piece for 2025, and I think he could develop quickly.  But he needs more starts in low pressure to work on his faatball control and his changeup/curve. We don't need another fastball/slider bullpen arm right now... let's see what he does against the Dodgers. Counsell is showing faith so far. 

6) Colin Rea is our best #5 Candidate until Assad is ready. Let's get on with it- I'm not happy we have no hard throwers in the rotation but Brown. Still, reliability is more important and Rea can pitch reliably. I have confidence he can give us a circa 4.0 ERA performance and win games. 

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The Backend Bullpen: the Good News

1) Let Pressly and Hodge ride. I won't hit the panic button. Pressly has been sloppy but pitches out of jams like a true vet. He's NEVER been bad, but is not elite this year. Hodge will eventually take his job, but maybe not this year. Hodge is our top setup man this hear. 

2) Merryweather looks solid. don't worry about small sample size effects. He's effective and throws hard. 

3) Keller is excellent- make him the long relief solution! He was a revelation in camp and looks like a dominant arm this year. He may lead the team in KO/9. Keep it up, and give him multiple innings whenever possible. I'd rather use him as the go-to long reliever than the 5th starter, though. Give him close 50 2-3 inning appearances and a 40 pitch limit.

4) I have faith in Roberts. Ethan's journey to the Majors has been full of setbacks but right now he looks like yet another hard throwing option that could become higher leverage soon. He's here for more than a cup of tea- I think he's already flashing the ability to come in for early inning, high leverage situations. He can keep a game alive.  

The Low Leverage Bullpen: Bad News

1) Nate Pearson should go to Iowa. He's got potentially dangerous stuff but he's regressed to his historical sloppy mean. I don't have faith in him. He could re emerge but not anytime soon. When Brasier or Assad comes back, he's demoted. 

2) Morgan can handle low leverage, but isnt special. enough said- he can be serviceable but don't expect heroics. Expect him to stay on the major roster though. 

3) WTF is wrong with Thielbar? This is surprising me. I expected better. He's supposed to be a high leverage lefty killer. NO SIREE... he looks like a low leverage arm this year. He was mediocre in spring training. Hes showing 5 to 6 ERA stuff. Let's hope he recovers so we don't waste salary. I am on the fence about cutting the guy. 

4) Tom Cosgrove was a Great Pickup but needs time. We finally added a serious developmental lefty piece to give us depth...but there's a reason the Padres moved on. They have very high standards for their bullpen and  he's been wild recently.  We don't need anymore walk machines at Wrigley, so the pitch lab needs to unlock his best formula. I hope he shows up by June- I can't stand only having 1 lefty in the pen. We need 2. 

5) We need Brasier and Miller back. Our bullpen is really not as effective until we get these breaking ball pitchers back in action. Although we are chock full of fastball slider guys, Miller's sweeper and Brasier's breakers are sorely missed. Hopefully Brasier replaces Pearson ASAP, and Miller comes back to cover the next inevitable injury. Miller may replace Morgan, when he is ready. 

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The Minors

1) We are stacked with depth. No need to panic- we've got an impressive array of AAA pitching right now. Many guys could get called up to replace Pearson and Thielbar. I'll discuss the top candidates: 

2) Cade Horton is looking fantastic. Don't be surprised to see him take a roster spot soon. He's too good to ignore. He's leading the minors with 12 KOs and has been unhittable. No rush though- we want him as confident as possible. 

3) Daniel Palencia will find the Majors soon. He always seems just a few games away from greatness. i think hes virtually interchangeable with Merryweather right now- on some teams he'd already be a middle inning reliever.

4) Brandon Hughes is back... perhaps. He's had a rough time coming back from his 2023 injuries, but looks like a serious lefty option. Still, Tom Cosgrove has higher upside potential... so Hughes seems like an injury sub only.

5) We need to trade some arms and consolidate.  It's rather bizarre that we have two full AAA bullpens, most of which are pitching very well, and yet are riding with mediocre performamces from Brown, Taillon, Pressly, Thielbar.... and also still have Assad, Rea, and ... this feels wrong. There must be a few teams willing to pick up several of our insane depth options so we can get 1 truly reliable piece. Hoyer better be on the phone every day until we assemble a championship top 13. What good is a dozen guys fighting for the bottom edge of the bullpen and the #5 spot? What good is it to have NO scary lefty relievers?

Conclusion 

 Overall, I love our top 3 rotational guys. I'm confident enough in Hodge, Pressly, and Merryweather. But let's take a step forward with the rest. No mercy on the weak. Let's get Horton and Brasier going somwtime soon and stop coddling sloppy pitching.