Hello Cubs world, 

on this blog I'll be laying out revised expectations for the Cubs 2025 Season. Hopefully I'll routinely update those expectations as the season progresses. It is a bit early to say too much about pitching -there's not much correlation between March and season performance. As usual, my goal here is not to predict what Craig Counsell will do, but rather what he OUGHT to do, if he wants to take advantage of the current hot/cold patters of Spring player performances. It is a common fact in baseball that some players are consistent and start slow/fast every year, whereas others have "special seasons" where they are unexpectedly but persistently hot/cold. Even the greatest players have dry spells. For now, let's talk about getting the most out of the position players based on what they are showing us.  

How Hot are They?

Cubs are starting off near the top of the league in bat production. This is great news, as a hot start may give the team some insurance wins. On the other hand, their pitching is still looking inconsistent, so the hitters MUST hit to cover for that. Only a few players are cold so far: Tucker, Swanson, Shaw, Hoerner, and Turner. However, things can change at any moment. The only player that is deeply concerning at the moment is Swanson, because he's been cold too much, too often over the past 2 years. Sure, he's still one of the best gloves in all of baseball, but he really needs to hit in the .750-.770 range to earn his big contract. That's the range we were expecting when we have him 7 years, 177 million. Don't be surprised if Counsell treats every game like a playoff game and strategically alters the lineup radically to go with the best short-term matchups. Obviously, the team keeps data and inside knowledge I can't access. But from the outside, these lineups are my best guesses for how to get the best results from what we saw in Spring. 

Batting Expectations - First 20 Games VS RHP

Let's start with projections for the batting order VS RHP:

The main story here is that Swanson isn't looking ready for the season yet, and our catchers - especially Amaya - are hotter than expected. Also, due to Tucker's slow start, his place in the order is unstable, but should settle in eventually. Turner hasn't flashed much, but he's not meant to be a starter. He's a professional hitter who is unlikely to be terrible, but is only meant to pinch hit for Busch/Armstrong when facing lefties; otherwise, he's there for injury coverage or covering Suzuki's DH spot to give planned days off for the other three outfielders. This order reflects gut instincts about how these players OUGHT to be situated, even though I don't expect Counsell to follow this plan exactly. 
*** = Hot Spring hitters  

***1) Happ - Solid spring! he looks a bit above his usual .800 OPS performance against righties. 

***2) Suzuki - This guy wants to win a batting crown. I predict him to have his first .900 OPS year and start at least that strong. 

3) Tucker - If he starts slow, expect Justin Turner to get DH opportunities in this slot. I expect maybe .700 OPS for 20 games... but a great year.  

***4) Bush - He's looking poised for a step up in power from last year. He'll beat .800 OPS for the first 20 games. 

***5) Armstrong/Turner ph - He's hot enough to rake in the 5 spot right now, and steal a base every third game. Turner can pinch here vs lefty relievers.  

6) Shaw/***Workman - A cold start for Shaw, but small sample size. His baserunning warrants batting before the hot Amaya. Workman can rotate here.   

***7) Amaya/Kelly  - Amaya and Kelly are both hot and Amaya's flashing power. This is a good RBI slot, following Armstrong and Shaw. 

8 ) Swanson/Turner - Yikes! A slow start at the plate is concerning. We want .750 OPS Swanson, but we are getting .600. Turner can pinch here.  

9) Hoerner / ***Workman ph - Hoerner needs time to warm up. Workman is ready to hit, and should frequently pinch into this spot.  

First 20 Games VS LHP

The main difference here is that Berti will get opportunities at 3rd or 2nd, whereas Workman is unlikely to hit against lefties. Busch is also pushed back in the order due to his weak splits; Armstrong will probably be benched against lefty starters to give Turner opportunities to kill his preferred prey. I could potentially see either Berti, Workman, or Shaw eventually fight Happ for the leadoff position- man, I hope they are that good. 

***1 Happ

***2 Suzuki

3 Tucker

4 Turner/***Armstrong

5 Berti / Shaw 

***6 Busch

***7 Amaya/Kelly

8 Swanson

9 Hoerner/Berti ph

Summary

When teams aren't in a tight divisional race, they often treat the first 20 games as if it were an extension of spring training. They let their stars "work out their kinks", and they let young guys "stretch their legs" in an extended battle for a roster spot. But when you have high expectations to be a contender like the 2025 Cubs, every game counts. Don't be at all surprised, as I said, if big name starters like Tucker and Swanson find themselves getting early days off, or not facing certain types of pitchers who are throwing exactly what they aren't hitting well at the moment.  This is no time to "let it ride" - its a team, and all of the 40 man roster should be used as if they are here to PLAY to get tough outs, face tough matchups, and/or be the hot hand, if they are the most likely to contribute to immediate wins.

And don't expect Shaw to have an automatic 3rd base gig- Workman and Berti have both proven they could hold down the spot if Shaw needs some AAA bat time while recovering from recent tweaks. Shaw shouldn't be overworked at the moment or else risk a 4-6 week injury. Again, a hot Workman may present an opportunity to eek out a few more wins even if Shaw has the higher upside. There's no rush- he's got plenty of options remaining. Personally I'd rather see Berti/Workman get the bulk of the starts in the first 20 games and let Shaw get hot in Iowa, and then come roaring back. Under such a scenario, it would be an opportunity for a spunky Alcantara to burn an option and cover for a slow-starting Tucker. Interesting possibility....