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UBlink

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Everything posted by UBlink

  1. And we get numbed by the multi-million dollar contracts, but even 2 weeks of leaugue minimum looks like big money to a young family man like Ryan.
  2. Agreed. I don't see why people have a problem with his power as it is. 4 HRs in 77 ABs, equals out to 26 in a 500 AB season. Even if you figure in his entire season's stats, he's still a 15-18 HR type. I'll take that if he's OBP is gonna put up a .370 ish OBP....which is his career mark before this season. If he averaged 15-25 HR per year with a .370+ OBP the next 3-5 years, I'd gladly take that production for what he's likely to be paid. But would you take that for what he's likely to be played?
  3. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm on board with you. I don't have stats to support my theory (too darn lazy), but I think it is much more likely for a hitter with good plate discipline to develop better power than for a good power hitter to develop better plate discipline.
  4. Wouldn't it be a good idea for the Cubs, since they have some money to spend, to front load Giles contract? It seems to me that as he ages his value will go down and keeping his salary in tune with that would help the Cubs move him if they had to. OK, I've held out as long as I can on this. The finance whizzes at the Trib (and if this is over their head my services are available for slightly less than the major league minimum) are entirely capable of separating the timing of the cash payments from the value provided under the contract. Ignoring the time value of money (it complicates the numbers but doesn't alter the conclusions), if you negotiate a contract with a player for $6M, $8M, and $10M, but you think his production is likely to look more like $10M, $8M, and $6M, you just allocate $10M against your budget in year 1, with $6M going out in cash and $4M held in reserve for year 3. I don't think there is anything that would prevent the Cubs, or any team, announcing at the signing of a contract how they were going to allocate the expense over the course of the contract. This would also make it easier to understand trading a player near the end of a back loaded contract and picking up some of the cost. In the previous example, if you trade the player after year 2 but have to pick up $4M in year 3 salary to make the deal work, you don't feel cheated. In terms of whether a front-loaded deal could be negotiated, the answer is of course. Both parties to the negotiation will be looking at the present value of the deal (my services are available to agents as well as team owners). If all the money is guaranteed, the only thing that might affect the timing of the payments are different discount rates for the time value of money between the teams and the player. The only caveat I would add is that a team using this approach would need to establish the allocation at the time of signing the contract. I would be surprised (shocked) if the Cubs and other teams don't use this type of analysis, they just don't generally bring it up because they think the unwashed fans wouldn't understand. To summarize, all guaranteed contracts should be analyzed over the length of the contract and allocated according to expected production over that period. Now, to analyze contracts with options, we need to break out the old Black-Scholes option pricing models... [i was looking for a smiley for cha-ching]
  5. At this point, Patterson is a utility man at best also, but a highly compensated one.
  6. Thanks UBlink. I was just wondering so I thought it would make sense to ask somebody who follows the team all of the team instead of blowing off homework to dig through box scores. Don't blow off homework - unless you have a 98 mph fastball with control or a 1.200 OPS.
  7. I can tell you that Brandon has hit in different spots, sometimes based on the circumstances. I didn't know if you wanted an exact count or not in regards to the breakdown. Imagine the lineup issues if Murton and Pie were still there!
  8. The DJaxx lineup and batting order tends to vary a lot game to game. The problem is that there are more legitimate prospects than there are positions to play them in. I hope that helps a little bit.
  9. Tying run up for the Mudcats in the 9th
  10. ha ha, it should be! Yeah, better visuals!
  11. For those needing a visual of the 7th inning stretch (Pre-shave) http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a66/UBlink/P1020326.jpg
  12. So I don't think ticket availability should be holding anybody back. Come on down!!!
  13. I'm only 26 hours and 44 minutes away! Though, I am only need to take 3 freeways to get to Jackson. Sweet, you can make it in time for the game Friday! http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v177/Navinda/mq-mapgend.gif You make the drive, I'll buy you dinner. It's a straight shot! ha ha If you leave right after the game tonight, you could take a slight detour through Dallas and I'll put you up for the night. It's only 8 hours from here.
  14. They should have done that 2 weeks ago. :)
  15. Not sure I've ever heard going on the disabled list as moving on to bigger and better things before...
  16. Maybe a reasonable way to compare the full season for a member of the starting rotation would be to include the results for the substitutes when the regular starter is unavailable. Somebody has to pitch every 5th day. I suspect if you added Wood's replacement's stats to Wood's own for the last 2 years it wouldn't look as good as Maddux's.
  17. Trade pitching for Mench. The Rangers need pitching, the Cubs need Mench. He's one Ranger without outrageous Home/Away splits.
  18. If it's strictly performance this year, what about McClain? .291, .358, .578 with 30 HR's ain't too shabby.
  19. Hey DJAXX, I couldn't be there to listen on Dixie 1310, but this week you sound pretty good on that newfangled internet thingie. Sounds really good tonight, glad you had a dress rehearsal last week.
  20. Ron gave another shout-out for DJAXX's broadcast tomorrow night. Y'all listen in, now.
  21. Bottom of 10th, bases loaded 1 out. Base hit, game over. DJaxx lose 8-7
  22. Ramos comes in with bases loaded and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. Young at the plate. Popped up! Extra innings
  23. Sorry DJaxx, Sing tried waiting for you to make the record setting HR call, but he just couldn't make it. WT pulls to within 1.
  24. Casey was arguing with the ump for a balk call (unsuccessfully). Sing broke the record!!!!!!
  25. Yikes - the DJaxx ended up with 3 CS and 3 PO's. That's not too good.
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