The biggest problem I have with this trade, as I said earlier, is that Garza pretty much has to reach that potential for this trade to make sense. We didn't have a need in the rotation and Garza hasn't been a top of the rotation pitcher to this point. He'll cost upward of $5-6 mil this year and more after that. His xFIP doesn't indicate a pitcher on the verge of being a top of the rotation pitcher, but he'll have to be to keep us from having overpaid. And if I'm trading primarily for potential, overpaying doesn't make sense. Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats. Agreed. And like Fangraphs said if a guy consistenly outperforms his xFIP 3 years in a row, sooner or later you have to credit it as a skill for that pitcher.