Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Re: NHL (Blackhawks included) offseason thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Prizefight's topic in Other Sports
I don't blame Niemi one bit for trying to get his payday while he can. I just don't want the Blackhawks to be the one to give it to him. -
Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks Thread!!!!!!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to chuckywang's topic in Other Sports
When a player is generating a ton of shots on goal and none are going in, do you consider him unlucky in the sense of a player getting line drives in baseball but a horrible BABIP? That was the situation for Hossa most of the playoffs and Toews in the final. -
Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks Thread!!!!!!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to chuckywang's topic in Other Sports
I'm *still* waiting for VisitPhilly.com to respond to my e-mail and tell me what Montreal, New Jersey, Boston and Chicago have in common. They promised me I'd find out! This is worse than waiting on the Deathly Hallows to come out! :( -
Re: NHL (Blackhawks included) offseason thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Prizefight's topic in Other Sports
Huet can't be sent down until the season starts. You can't be more than 10% over the cap on July 1 and you have to be under the cap by the time the season starts, so Huet's cap hit will basically use up the 10% offseason buffer. All the dismantling/cap dumping moves will have to be made in the next few weeks. The offseason moves *fast* when you when the Stanley Cup! -
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Re: NHL (Blackhawks included) offseason thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Prizefight's topic in Other Sports
The NHL cap rules are always complicated. Long story short: You have to stay under the cap until June 30. On July 1, you can exceed the cap by 10%. The Blackhawks are exactly at the cap right now. In order to get compensation for your RFAs, you have to give them a qualifying offer, and those count against the cap too. So I don't think the Blackhawks can even qualify their NHL RFAs (Niemi, Ladd, Hjarlmarsson) unless they clear some cap space in the next two weeks. -
That's great and all, and I like Nate, but when it comes to soccer I (and a host of others) know a lot more than you think we do. Besides, even if we just stipulate his 9% number, that is still a significant increase. Moreover, you haven't rebutted the points that US, Wolf and I have made regarding England playing the rest of the matches. Because I don't think that's likely to make a difference either. England's last game is the fifth game, not the sixth, so it'd be hard for them to have already clinched the group before that match. Although at this point the permutations are making my head hurt so maybe I'm goofing that up.
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Yes. You gave me the red ass because I'm buzzed and excited and was surprised to see anything worth arguing over. As long as you are fighting the good fight of supporting US Soccer, I have no real problem with you. I think we have the same basic idea about how this changes our odds, we're just quibbling over what counts as "significant." This is time that could be better spent trolling some Englishmen.
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Anyway, we drew with England. Suck it, England! WOO!
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Sorry guys. When Nate Silver's on my side, I feel pretty darn comfortable that I'm correct.
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Sure. But 9 times out of 10, it won't be the difference, so I guess we can sit here and squabble about whether it's "significant" or not. But the result of the next game will have several times the impact that this draw did, no matter the result.
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The fact that something unlikely happened doesn't disprove that it was unlikely. Nate Silver estimates that the draw increased the U.S. team's odds of advancement from about 56% to about 65%. That sounds about right to me. Want to tell me that Nate Silver doesn't know the difference between 1 and 0? Since you've pretty much done nothing but act like a condescending jerk for the last page, I take joy in that.
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I'm not saying they didn't change. I'm saying they didn't significantly change, i.e. a swing of 15-20 percentage points or more. What scenarios are plausibly left in which we advance, but wouldn't have if we'd lost 2-1 to England instead?
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Keep hammering overly simplistic explanations that miss important nuances with heavyhanded sarcasm. It's apparently the only club in your bag, so I can see why you feel the need to use it every shot. The only realistic scenario in which the point against England makes the difference between advancing and not advancing is if the U.S. draws with either Slovenia and Algeria, defeats the other one by a narrow margin, the one that we draw against beats the one that we lost against by a large margin, and the one that we draw against manages to lose to England narrowly. That exact scenario has a slim chance of happening. In the World Cup system, the marginal value of "points" is not nearly as absolute as you want to pretend it is. Some points are huge, some are relatively unimportant.
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I'm going to say something snarky because I don't have a good counterargument. I'm not sure why you need a counterargument. I learned to count when I was a toddler and ever since then, I've known that one of the certainties in the universe is that having one of something is more than having zero of it. Well, since I clearly posted "1 and 0 are the same number," you've made a brilliant point. Kudos.
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I'm going to say something snarky because I don't have a good counterargument.
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Losing to England, 4 points out of Slovenia and Algeria probably gets it done, just nervously watching goal differential. Ting with England, same formula, except we don't have to worry about GD.
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7.5/2.5, I'd say. We drew Italy 1-1 last time, too. And I'm still not sure it increases our chance of advancement.
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Favored but not guaranteed.
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Okay, say we get three points out of Algeria/Slovenia. England's got a great shot at seven points, and then beats us has a good shot to win their other game and get six points. We still need four more points to feel comfortable, I'd think. ETA: A draw between Slovenia/Algeria tomorrow morning makes things look much, much better.
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Well, that was fun! But you have to take care of business now.
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Oh my Altidore. So close :(
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Not a good start to this half. Except for Tim Howard, who is amazing.
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Fail. http://hobnob.royals.org/forum/download/file.php?id=1636