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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yes. It is entirely up to you whether you believe it or not.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    The odds of them becoming a decent MLB player are more important than the average wins, in this case. Besides, how much are your long-term projections on Castro, Rizzo and such going to change based on the next few weeks? Obviously, no one wants to see the team losing because Castro derrickroses his knee or Rizzo forgets how to hit. But if that random collection of Crash Davises we have on our roster right now costs us some draft position? I think that's worth being annoyed over.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    See my above post. If it's the difference between, say, the 2nd overall pick and the 5th overall pick, then I start to get cranky. But it's likely not. So enjoy some [expletive] wins. Never!
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Because it is Important.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    See my above post. If it's the difference between, say, the 2nd overall pick and the 5th overall pick, then I start to get cranky. It'd be even worse if were the No. 1 overall pick at stake.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't want to fall because the difference between the second-best player and the third- or fourth-best player is historically pretty significant. If we happen to get a little overslot money out of the deal, that's cool too. Not to mention the possibility that the Astros are dumb again and we get the best player in the draft. I posted this over on PSD first: 1975 to 2000 Overall pick, percentage who posted at least 10 bWAR in MLB, average bWAR per pick. 1, 72%, 31.4 2, 44%, 12.0 3, 36%, 10.2 4, 28%, 9.9 5, 20%, 6.3 27-30, 12%, 3.1 47-50, 10%, 4.7 This isn't the NFL draft where there's a smooth incline of high value all the way through the middle rounds. In the baseball draft, there are a few elite talents and then a pile of undifferentiated mediocrity. The "FIRST-ROUND TALENTS!!!!" that you can get by overslotting later aren't really any better than the 2nd round talents. The small differences among the elite players at the top of the draft are more important than getting an earlier shot at your favorite scratch-off ticket outside the top 10.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    I like Jake, but I also like how he disappears when things go bad for the Pirates.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    You really don't know this front office, at all. So, inspired by this, I did a detailed study of the front office's history so that we might understand what they are going to do. From that research, I predict: 1) We'll do pretty much whatever they feel like doing. 2) They'll come up with a *really* intelligent-sounding justification for what they feel like doing. 3) They'll soak up all the credit for things that go well while avoiding most of the blame for things that go poorly. 4) It'll probably involve a crap-ton of waiver-wire turnover.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    I won't say it's impossible that the trio above could provide league-average production. But sub-replacement seems way more likely to me. Maybe we can re-acquire Ryan Flaherty and Jeff Baker I would prefer that to 2/3rds of the players listed above.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    I won't say it's impossible that the trio above could provide league-average production. But sub-replacement seems way more likely to me.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    That's more depressing than any hyperbole I could make up about this offseason. I really hope that's not true.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    BPA at that very top of the draft is almost never a pitcher, imo. Outside of the Strasburg/Prior types, there's just not much reason to ignore the higher success rate of position prospects in general.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    I know in my head it isn't a very predictive stat, but in my heart I'd feel a lot better if Samardzija kept his ERA under 4.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Trade Garza for peanuts. Trade Soriano for minor salary relief. Trade DeJesus and Samardzija for decent prospects. Fill every available roster spot with a minimum-salary waiver wire pickup who may or may not have a good season somewhere in their past. Spend another 12 months fapping over draft position, low-minors talent and payroll flexibility.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm never the one who tries to make the threads about me. I always start out talking about baseball. People just seem to like to talk about me.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think he's maybe just a smidge high on XBH/BIP and HR/FB ratio right now, but for the most part all of Jackson's high-variance peripherals are back into reasonable ranges.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    We have no interest in better options.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Volstad's FIP through 2.2 (for the night only): 16.98. But his xFIP was only 5.12.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    [historical Washington Nationals player] just homered for the Nats.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    What is he right about? Everything in the last year not involving the Sean Marshall trade.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    There's football tonight, we should just forfeit.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    - W. Castillo struck out swinging - B. Jackson struck out swinging - D. Barney struck out swinging
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    I know we aren't catching them, but it feels like we are gaining on the Astros.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    But is he a No. 1?
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Before the Orioles, it was the Royals. Before that, it was the Indians. There seems to be a key step in the "Acquire awesome minor league system > ???? > Be awesome at the MLB level" that is very tricky to find.
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