Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Want.
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Mother#%@#% peas? I may never have eaten a vegetable in my life at this point.
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Predict the 25-man roster on Opening Day
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wouldn't mind seeing Clevenger make it. I think there's still some upside there. Sveum's pretty much confirmed Lillibridge has been given a job, and now he's talking up Bogusevic as well. I'll try not to freak out about the possibility of getting stuck with both of them, despite one being bad enough. I guess that means Sappelt isn't guaranteed a spot? -
Organization Roster Projections
Hairyducked Idiot replied to jumbo's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Well, now we have to start the top prospect polls all over again. Thanks, Obama. -
Organization Roster Projections
Hairyducked Idiot replied to jumbo's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
That sounds like a really intriguing guy: http://orioles-nation.com/2012/01/05/talent-cuba-armando-rivero/ How does that get missed? -
The 2012 Offseason Thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
While playing at lower levels every year despite being the same age. -
The 2012 Offseason Thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to ctcf's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'd prefer we actually get somebody good Then we'd have to give up somebody actually good. I'm not a huge Porcello fan but that's still a ripoff in our favor. -
This is pretty much the worst ST ever. Six weeks is way too long.
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Not debatable at all. It's a grain. I agree (now that I know), but I wanted to avoid any sort of sidetracking debate, because some people still seem to disagree.
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I found out this week that corn's vegetable status is debatable. Really rocked my world.
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That kind of sucks, because I think you're pretty cool.
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Well, I'm getting some amusement out of watching you do exactly what you claim to be frustrated by me doing, but otherwise, yeah, it's not getting anywhere.
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2013 Spring Training Game Thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to David's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Jackson walks in his first PA. Suck it, Keith Law. Soler with a hard line drive single. -
I'm saying that when you take into account the odds of all of the things, good or bad, combined, the probability of the post-2013 Cubs entering the offseason in at least slightly worse shape than the post-2012 Cubs is noticeable. Not even 50%, but likely enough to be in the conversation. Long story short: We swapped Jackson for Garza, added a few mediocre guys who might be average if we play them in just the right role, and have a few interesting but severely flawed prospects on the horizon. Fast-forward another year after that, and you've got guys like Baez and Soler knocking down the doors and things look a lot better. But 2014 could easily be a bit of a treading-water season unless we have some breakout performances in 2013.
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Yes. Two pitchers that are 1 win apart, and only because of the IP difference? I consider that a wash. The only guy out of those three that ZIPS projects a league-average performance from is Schierholtz, and that's because he's getting platoon-protected. That seems like the most likely scenario. All seems pretty likely to me. Seems pretty likely. Jackson's the only one I'd give better than a 20% chance of becoming a big-leaguer this season. You're doing a very good job of listing things that might go right (but probably won't for most of them). You've ignored that things can also go wrong, beyond just their ability to not go right. What if Samardzija isn't as good as his FIP last year? What if Rizzo takes a step back? What if Soriano's legs finally give out? What if Castillo can't really hit in the majors full-time? What if Fujikawa is no good in the states? What if Travis Wood can no longer straddle the fine line between being useful and being AAA fodder?
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Look at it this way, heading into an offseason. post-2012 versions of these players: Soriano/????/DeJesus ????/Castro/Barney/Rizzo Castillo Garza/Samardzija/Wood Marmol/Russell/abunchofguys post-2013 version of these players: Soriano/DeJesus/Hairston ????/Castro/Barney/Rizzo Castillo Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/Vizcaino Fujikawa/Russell/Villanueva/abunchofguys How much better do you think the second group is? How big of a setback would it really take during the season to have the 2013 version be worse? Once you get to 2015, then you can start plugging in guys like Baez or Soler and the waves of talent start to kick in, but until then I don't see anyone past Vizcaino that I think you can safely plug in to a spot and feel good about it. We've entered the dead space between the Rizzo/Castro generation and the Soler/Baez/Almora generation.
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Yes. I know it's crazy, but sometimes things don't go according to plan for this franchise. If Jackson and Garza is a wash, if Brett Jackson's new swing isn't magic, if we don't extend any players, and Hairston, Schierholtz and Villanueva are all of negligible value, then we might be worse. I don't think any of those "ifs" are all that unlikely. And we didn't get anything for the following season from those trades. I didn't say the overall organization wouldn't be better by then. I said the immediate MLB short-term might not be.
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I'll pencil those assets in right next to the near-ready starting pitcher we got for Garza last year. We'll see. They project pretty similar to me. I guess we do save a couple of million, but that only matters if we plan on using it. That's a good point. We're talking *next* season for guys are are going to A-ball. If Baez and Soler appear in 2014, it'll be as cups of coffee in September, and I doubt even that. Zych will probably be in the bullpen in 2014, but he needs to take a step forward before we're sure that's a good thing. I'm not saying we'll definitely be worse, but it's definitely within the normal margin of error for the projection at this point. We haven't had a chance for any attrition during the season yet, and we project as barely better.
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I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson. Last offseason as in Oct 11 or Oct 12? We've added lots of pieces since 10/11 and several more than you credit on the pitching side since 10/12. Not to mention that we could go into that offseason with Baez + Soler knocking on the door, Vizcaino ready for full duty and even someone like Paniagua being close. From Oct. 2012 to Oct. 2013. Vizcaino's the only guy on that list likely to make a 2014 impact. We added Fujikawa for 2014, but will be losing Marmol. Wash. He and Villanueva are all I didn't mention for pitchers, I'm pretty sure.
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I was thinking today that maybe right now, we project to head into next offseason in worse shape at the MLB level than we entered last offseason. Basically, all we've done is swapped Garza for Jackson.
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Their utter lack of ambition will do that. This part is just an annoying symptom of the disease. Plus, this is the 24th roster spot, unless Sappelt really is already in.
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Aren't we supposed to not have to worry about the better players being left off the roster for stupid reasons anymore?
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Two thoughts. 1) That's not a compliment. 2) It'd better darn well be a "six outfielders" scenario and not a "Sappelt gets screwed again" scenario.
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It would be impossible to ignore with Tubsy McManTits there. He'll become a folk hero. Also, he gets graded on such an absurd curve that you'll constantly have people talking about how suprisingly athletic he is.
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Apparently this is a guy who "broke" the Melky Cabrera suspension a few weeks before it happened. Sometimes that's a guy with a real source, but sometimes it's people on Twitter throwing ish against the wall and taking credit when some sticks.