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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    wOBA of players who got 500 PA at age 20 like Castro: Player Age 23 Alex Rodriguez .394 Ken Griffey Jr. .391 Edgar Renteria .337 Roberto Alomar .353 Adrian Beltre .313 Ivan Rodriguez .338 Andruw Jones .387 AVERAGE .359 Starlin Castro .280 When you include the most recent, relevant information, it's pretty clear that Castro is on a completely different career path than those players. The only glimmer of hope on that list is Beltre, whose skill set and scouting profile was the complete opposite of Castro. And Beltre's .313 came attached to a 4-win season because of super-elite defense.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    OK, now do it for players who got 500 PA at age 20 then posted a .280 wOBA at age 23. If that's too specific, you can goose the parameters a bit.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    I keep wondering if maybe he's a 2-win player who had a fluky BABIP in 2011 and a fluky-UZR in 2012 (or whatever defensive stat is used by fWAR).
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's actually pretty huge, it's just that most of them aren't good enough to make it to the majors before that happens so we don't notice when they just stop getting better, a la Felix Pie.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    It appears Tanaka's team lost 4-2.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    is your sig from pete & pete? that show was disturbing. That show was *awesome* and I'm going to be watching the Time Travel episode this weekend in honor of DST.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    @HeardOnMLBT Heard on MLB Tonight ‏@HeardOnMLBT 29 Oct "The one thing that stood out to me [in Game 5] was Allan Craig's ability not to move." - Harold Reynolds Heard on MLB Tonight ‏@HeardOnMLBT 29 Oct "Jon Lester has proved that he's the best pitcher in this World Series." - Eric Byrnes Heard on MLB Tonight ‏@HeardOnMLBT 14 Oct "The biggest rally killer in the world is a home run." - Mitch Williams Heard on MLB Tonight ‏@HeardOnMLBT 18 Sep "[Trout] is not scoring runs." - Harold Reynolds (Trout leads the AL in runs scored)
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    So, if Castro maxes his talent, he's Starlin Castro 2010-2012? Interesting. Edgar Renteria had five seasons better than Castro 2010-2012, and including one where he doubled Castro's best fWAR.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    I wonder what you could have gotten for Jeff Francouer after his age-24 season.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    I love the fact that if this wasn't in the AFL thread, it would be ambiguous because it could apply to more than one Cubs' prospect.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    Your certainty that it's his nadir is odd.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    /Trades Castro to make room for Baez Maybe. Or maybe Baez moves to third and we cycle through scrapheap SS's like Boston always seemed to after Nomar.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    I wouldn't be surprised if they're just dangling him out there to see if they can get an overpay. But I also wouldn't be surprised if they genuinely wanted to move him. They've got a history of trading high-profile SS's. Castro's defense and approach stick out like sore thumbs against our organizational philosophy. The MLB trade market isn't perfectly efficient, but surely it's efficient enough to accurately price in Castro's projection so that the whole "sell low" issue isn't really a problem.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    You're looking at this the wrong way. If we fill in the Cardinals' last hole, they can win the next four WS and then finally fall to complacency in 2018 when our window is opening.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Sahadev Sharma ‏@sahadevsharma 2m When I suggested STL as a possible destination to non-Cubs scouts/front office execs, ALL felt asking for both Miller & Martinez was crazy Sahadev Sharma ‏@sahadevsharma 1m Most seem to suggest that getting just one would be a good baseball trade and even possibly tilted in the Cubs favor.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't know anything about Montero's scouting report, but his minor league numbers *are* pretty sick.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Sheesh o'pete: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-expecting-to-go-free-agent-shopping-for-2014?ymd=20131031&content_id=63384550&vkey=news_hou Astros are going to go up to $50m or $60m next season, after being at $13m last season. Expect to go after a couple of decent-sized free agent pickups. I don't think I've ever seen an offseason where teams had this much empty payroll space.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/pit/pirates-have-fewer-needs-more-money-to-spend-on-free-agents?ymd=20131028&content_id=63302214&vkey=news_pit a) Pirates rumor connecting them to Stanton b) Pirates can apparently afford to go up to $100m in payroll for next year.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm a little worried that he might be terrible, and a medium amount worried that his first three seasons might have been Fluky BABIP, Fluky BABIP, Mediocre Masked By Variance In Defensive Stats. If the real Castro is .305 BABIP and slightly below average defense, I wouldn't mind gettin' out if there's still someone out there who thinks he might have a 5-win future and is willing to pay for him as such.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm not certain that trading him for something less than elite prospects isn't the best course of action. I know, I know, "don't sell low," but we don't know that this is low.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    I mean, I expect some regression to the mean from Castro, but we can't just pretend last season didn't happen and he's still the super-awesome untouchable asset he was. A year older and 3 full wins worse (down to below replacement) is a *huge* downswing in his projection going forward. He's not going to net super-elite assets.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    This reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/NPB promises to have streaming info on Saturday when Tanaka makes his final start in Japan in game six of their championship series, trying to finish it off for his team, up 3-2. Game time at 4:30 a.m.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    His -$50,000,000 $/WAR killed our ratios last year. Can't be the most payroll efficient team with guys like that in there.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Rats, guess we'll have to keep him then. Well, we could ask for Taveras, just in case. Maybe throw in Vogelbach or something.
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