They've got a bad team, an amazingly deep farm system, and they've added two relievers, a backup outfielder and a backup catcher. If they cared about the MLB team and the money was that big of an issue, it'd be time to trade prospects for cheap MLB upgrades.
I will say this. I came up with this hypothetical today: Tanaka just wants someone to make a huge, huge bid. His agent thinks the Cubs might do it. He acts all unimpressed and disinterested in their pitch and hopes that it makes them desperate. So maybe the fact that we look almost out of it is actually because we're just soooooo in. Or something.
It really does come down to that. One player shouldn't make such a big difference in the medium-term projection, but in this case, he does. He just fits a hole too perfectly that will be har dto fill otherwise.
If Rizzo gets a little better and Castro regresses to the mean: ???/Sweeney/Bryant Baez/Castro/Alcantara/Rizzo Castillo Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/ProspectfromSmardzj/??? OK bullpen That team is certainly better than the last few years, but it doesn't exactly strike fear into the rest of the division. That's a "80-82, we're showing progress!" kind of team unless it gets some good luck or the ???s are superstars.
It's obviously *really* hard to predict what is going to happen a year from now, and all of these projections have error bars that will make it moot. But let's assume a) We don't get Tanaka and are content with a do-nothing offseason b) Baez and Bryant make their debuts late in the year and do enough to be assumed as starters in 2015. c) Samardzija is traded at the deadline as no extension can be reached. d) Lake plays himself out of starting consideration e) The mass of bullpen arms we have accumulating can be projected as average or maybe a bit better So your starters going into 2015 is: ???/Sweeney/??? Bryant/Castro/Baez/Rizzo Castillo Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/???/??? Just completely ballparking, you have $50m committed there after arbitration awards and filling out the bench. I'd think all four of those question marks needs to be filled with above-average players if you are going to be competitive, right?
I think we're set on waiting until the deadline for Samardzija. Our demands are getting laughed at right now, so they'll gamble and hope someone gets desperate.
The big issue for me is that the Cubs face much bigger challenges in the upcoming decade than they did in the 2000s, when a lot of things broke their way (until October). I'm not convinced the Ricketts/Epstein combination will be able to do what it takes to overcome a division full of smart GMs and the shrinking influence of money.
I think it's plausible that Ricketts could have accidentally burned Wrigley Field to the ground on his first day as owner, and that alternative history would have the Cubs in better shape in 2014 than what he's actually done.
They've done everything they can to position themselves as a team who was interested and did the right thing to let some other team overpay for him. This used to be known as the MacPhail Maneuver, but Epstein is making it his own.
Similar to how I'm pretty sure that if Sanchez had accepted our deal last year, Garza or Soriano would have been gone to make up for it. Epstein can be pretty creative inside financial restraints when he wants to be.
Passan with a nice rip job on Ricketts: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/no--29-cubs--cheap-club-looks-like-it-s-on-verge-of-another-woeful-year-165308395.html
everyone is so happy with the team that attendance is the lowest in fifteen years, we can't find anyone who wants to bother putting the games on the radio, and wgn is going to broadcast games on tv in 2015 despite paying the cubs in corner gas dvds. MASTER TACTICIAN Underrated Canadian comedies are the new market inefficiency.
Glaus is a pretty common comp for Bryant for a lot of reasons, so it's probably a line of thinking like "he's very much like Glaus but he's a little better pure hitter, what's a power hitter that's a real good hitter HEY Ryan Braun!" Don't forget the "all comps must be of same race" check.
Well, if those guys progress, we'll need good baseball players to help us win more games. And if they don't, we'll need good baseball players to help us win more games. You can see how waiting is crucial given that dichotomy.