This is year four. And it is the only year currently being contested. We hope this is a long window of success. We have good reason to believe it has a good chance to be. But the idea that we're locked in and on cruise control is vastly overstated. People love easy-to-understand narratives like "We were bad, now we're OK and young, so tomorrow we'll be great." But it's never that easy. We could be like the Rays, where our first good team was our best. We could see the 2016 Cubs knocked off-course by a couple of poorly-timed injuries. We could see the front office's magic touch on cheap pitching evaporate. Russell could never adapt to the big leagues. Schwarber could Richie Sexson his forearm. The Cardinals and Pirates could continue their excellence for five more years and lock us out. The future looks good, but it isn't nearly enough of a guarantee to justify passing over the present entirely.