Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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I'm still annoyed by it, but for my money, they got away with it. They're in, the starter wouldn't have caught them up with St. Louis, and the playoffs are a crapshoot.
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Remember when a bunch of people were like "Hammel always pitches 60% of a season awesome and then falls apart" and a few people spazzed out at the suggestion?
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The Chicago Cubs have clinched a playoff spot
Hairyducked Idiot replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
#wearegood -
September Other Games Thread
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I've pretty much given up entirely and just chalk it all up to "pitchers are weird." -
yes?
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:-k I went back and looked and I've only made like six posts in this thread and none of them seem lol worthy. I even stayed out of the RBI pluralization argument. It isn't like this is the Arrieta trade thread. thats what was making me laugh. Every post in here except for one was really positive and every other thread on the board has been you progressing from "well we're going to be bad later this year" to "well we're going to be bad in the future" to "well the future is no guarantee" You are remembering the progression wrong. I've never once said we'd be bad this year or in the future. I've always been one of the more optimistic people about the Cubs in the immediate present.
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What an awful send with one out.
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Cardinals epic choke in progress
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This is so much fun now, I can't even imagine what it will be like when they come to Wrigley in a few weeks.
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:-k I went back and looked and I've only made like six posts in this thread and none of them seem lol worthy. I even stayed out of the RBI pluralization argument. It isn't like this is the Arrieta trade thread.
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Regular Season and Playoff Schedule Thoughts
Hairyducked Idiot replied to apete6's topic in General Baseball Talk
Pretty cocky from a guy with fewer division titles than Jim Hendry. -
I have paid almost zero attention to the Bears this pre-season. I know that Kevin White got hurt and I saw something on the crawl about Alshon's status, but otherwise I haven't seen a thing, and I think that improves my enjoyment of the leadup to today's game.
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Let's sequence this properly. He started the year out hurt, then came back and pitched pretty well, albeit with unspectacular peripherals. He's healthy now, which isn't how your post sounds. By far the most useful predictor of future injuries is recent injuries. Any injury on a pitcher's history, even if he comes back from it, puts them in a much higher risk category in the future. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19653 The two worst things that can happen to a pitching prospect in any given season are an injury and a notable drop in Ks. Pierce Johnson had both last year.
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There's actually a fair amount of studies out there that says older pitching is less susceptible to injuries than young pitching. Yes and no. The collapse rate starts creeping up again after mid-20s, even if it never gets as high as it was in the 19-22 injury nexus.
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I'm sure I like them a lot less than davell does.
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And I think teams with old, thin pitching situations are less able to weather variance than the average 90-game winner. You can't get the full picture without acknowledging both, the young deep hitting and the old thin pitching.
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Yes, but I think many fans are overestimating how much it means to have the best future on paper. Given the nature of the sport, projections even two year into the future are going to be very tightly bunched This gets into why whiffing on three seasons for future compensation isn't necessarily a good trade, because it is so easy for the upside you were betting on to be derailed, but the downside is locked in immediately. The part where you come up with ad hoc explanations for each individual pitcher being less likely to get hurt? I don't put much faith in that, but there isn't much point in arguing because we will just see.
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Ok, no problems then, perfect future incoming. Pierce Johnson had an awesome season, too. Hint: Epstein, like everyone else, has a mixed history when going out and acquiring MLB pitching.
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I was looking at GWRB today and they were basically unanimous that Bryant was the deserve RoY.
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The point is going well over your head. It isn't "bitching." It is acknowledging that there is no free lunch and there are no guarantees. Chasing hitters was the right play, but it still left a vulnerability that could ruin seasons in the future.
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Including playoffs and I would consider the over at 25
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Pierce Johnson got hurt and had thoroughly unimpressive peripherals. It was almost a disastrous season, pretty era or not.
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I'm going to pick this out unfairly to note, because I think if we're evaluating the Cubs' organization, the pitching situation gets overlooked a lot. We've run out the third-oldest pitching staff in the NL this year. It would take the most ridiculous optimists to argue that any of our upper-minors pitching prospects had a good year. Our top four starting pitchers have taken exactly 80% of our starts, and they've had extraordinarily good years doing so. That's not something that's going to happen every year, or even most years. The front office had an amazing year with hitting on almost all their pitching moves, but I don't think their personal histories or the history of baseball in general suggests that sort of hit rate is sustainable. I'm not saying they've done something wrong to get to this point. I *love* the eschewing pitchers method of team-building. But the fact that the resulting pitcher-thin nature of our organization looms large shows why there's really no such thing as guaranteed sustained success.
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Then why would you even click on this thread? The title of the thread is "worth it?" Clearly it was worth it, because I'm enjoying them NOW and could largely ignore them when they sucked I don't think it's too hard to see the holes in this thinking. 2008 therefore justified all of Hendry's tenure, by this logic.
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I think my favorite is Schwarber because he just might be the best and because he was the ultimate "seriously, are never taking a pitcher" pick.