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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    And they choked a 3-2 lead to the Yankees. Kevin Millar had a fever that week. The only prescription....was more Pedro.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    Is WHIFF percentage of pitches swung and missed at? And having a 99th percentile splitter is awesome regardless.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Over 150 PAs, how much is the offensive difference between Blanco and Bako? Less than 5 runs, and I can live with it to never hear someone say "Hank White" again.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    I don't know if it's reasonable to expect scouts to know exactly which ones will succeed and which ones will fail. I think it's worth holding on to the ones who fail in exchange for the few who succeed, rather than getting 75 cents on the dollar for all of them.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    I get that, I really do. But it's nonetheless interesting to see where Zambrano's bat potentially changed the outcome of an actual game.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200806020.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200808150.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200808210.shtml Three games in which Zambrano's offense contributed to a run, and the Cubs won by one. That doesn't mean the Cubs would have lost those games. On average, they would have lost about half. 3/2 = 1.5, pretty close to the original number. Zambrano's RBI's, which I'm assuming you're using to say he contributed a run, also came in the fourth, second and third innings, respectively. Considering the runs came early in each contest, there was still a lot of baseball left to be played and you can't assume that the games would have played out the same way. It's not like if Zambrano got the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. I agree that Zambrano had a bigger impact with his bat than most people would expect considering he is a pitcher, but I don't think those box scores directly prove much of anything in of themselves. "prove" isn't quite what I was going for. I think it's more like "provide interesting context to the abstract value of Wins Above Replacement."
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    They have a bunch of our lousy retreads. Maybe they know our playbook.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    0-2 on the worst shift I've seen in awhile.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    Blackhawks were looking pretty decent until they took two really dumb penalties in a row. 0-1 :(
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    Selling a lottery ticket for a penny is usually positive expected value.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    *whistle* *throws flag*
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    Not news, just a blog. http://www.ballparkdigest.com/features/index.html?article_id=916
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's not that they hate too much, but that we hate too little?
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Probably not. Even if Harden is healthy, my best-case scenario would be to have Marshall start most of the season and get Samardzija some time starting as well.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    Khalil Greene. Dang it, did someone beat us to it?
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    That it was disgusting that guys like him and Theriot are guaranteed spots while Cedeno and Marshall languished.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    His first-pitch strike percentage in 2008 was 60.7%, third out of four seasons in his career and right around his career average of 58.7. I think there is something to the "wearing down" theory, because his 2007 was out of whack with his other season's, and that that was where he threw the most pitches. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1783&position=P He doesn't appear to have it in him to be a full-time starter.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200806020.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200808150.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200808210.shtml Three games in which Zambrano's offense contributed to a run, and the Cubs won by one. That doesn't mean the Cubs would have lost those games. On average, they would have lost about half. 3/2 = 1.5, pretty close to the original number.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    I really don't mind Heilman or Samardzija taking a shot at the rotation, assuming Marshall is already in it because Harden can't throw.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    cherrypicked the endpoint? umm, if you want to include a 4th year, wolf is still better. and how is it roughly equivalent? because you say so? like you said that relievers ERA's are usually a lot lower than starters (they're not)? sorry, but you're going to have to give me something better than that before i'm convinced. Okay. So you want me to prove to you that parks effect ERA? no, i'm not an idiot of course they effect ERA. you cant just arbitrarily make up how much of an effect each park has. *sigh* I'm not. San Diego's pitching park effect for the last three years was 89. That means it deflates ERA by roughly 11%. Wrigley's pitching park effect has been 104, which means it inflates ERA by roughly 4%. Guess which parks the two pitchers we are talking about spent a plurality of their innings in the last three years? Wolf last year had a 2.78 ERA at home and a 5.76 ERA on the road. Overall, nearly every stat was significantly better at home. Unfortunately for your argument, his home park was Minute Maid Park, not necessarily a pitching friendly place. Look again.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    cherrypicked the endpoint? umm, if you want to include a 4th year, wolf is still better. and how is it roughly equivalent? because you say so? like you said that relievers ERA's are usually a lot lower than starters (they're not)? sorry, but you're going to have to give me something better than that before i'm convinced. Okay. So you want me to prove to you that parks effect ERA? no, i'm not an idiot of course they effect ERA. you cant just arbitrarily make up how much of an effect each park has. *sigh* I'm not. San Diego's pitching park effect for the last three years was 89. That means it deflates ERA by roughly 11%. Wrigley's pitching park effect has been 104, which means it inflates ERA by roughly 4%. Guess which parks the two pitchers we are talking about spent a plurality of their innings in the last three years?
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    cherrypicked the endpoint? umm, if you want to include a 4th year, wolf is still better. and how is it roughly equivalent? because you say so? like you said that relievers ERA's are usually a lot lower than starters (they're not)? sorry, but you're going to have to give me something better than that before i'm convinced. Okay. So you want me to prove to you that parks effect ERA?
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    Mark Prior for Cy Young, then. The number of innings a pitcher is capable of pitching apparently has nothing to do with how good they are. You gave me bad proof. The ability to put up a 5.00 ERA (even given that you cherrypicked your endpoint on the stats) in the parks Marquis has pitched in is roughly equivalent to the ability to put up a 4.60 ERA in Dodger Stadium and Petco.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    if salary doesnt matter in this discussion, then neither does durability. Umm, that really doesn't make any sense. At all. If durability doesn't matter, neither do runs. good lord. youre that said we're talking about how good marquis is, not his salary. so somehow durability matters but salary doesnt to this discussion? The ability to take the mound without hurting your arm is a factor in how good of a pitcher you are. The number on your paycheck is not.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    I know the answer. I'm wondering if you know. There seem to be some very relevant things to this discussion that you just plain are unaware of, such as the fact that relievers tend to have better ERAs than starters.
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