vance_the_cubs_fan

Bill Madden, in today's New York Daily News doesn't think Mac stand much of a chance next year.

If the Steelers knock off the Colts, I can see Denver winning the Super Bowl.

I have a feeling the Steelers will win this game.

Why is Miller worth a risk? He's only 29 years old. Prior to last season these were his ERA/BAA for the previous three seasons. 3.35/228 4.13/242 3.28/249 He has ability when healthy. I'd sign him to a heavy incentive laden deal and see what he has left. You can never have too much pitching.

Nah...that was my move last year, but with signing Eyre and Howry, Dempster actually working out as a closer, and having Williamson, Wuertz, and Ohman...I'd look to him as a number five starter when healthy.

Baez could be insurance if Gagne is slow to recover.

TD Pats.

I'd say touchback.

Review time.

According to Ken Rosenthal's article, Tiffany was the key to the trade.

Yeah. They let him go.

By the way, has ITI ever gotten a signing right?

According to ESPNInsider's Rumor Central, the Cubs are listed as a possible suitor for Wade Miller. There's also speculation he could be returning to Houston.

After reading Peter Gammons's latest article, it seems aparent the Rays are looking at young pitchers to compliment their young hitters. Friedman may have realized that he wasn't going to get the top prospect pitcher he wanted, but by taking Jackson he has a chance to have one. Of course getting Huff or Lugo could be problematic. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

That pass interference call agaisnt the Pats was bogus.

Chuck Tiffany is a left-handed pitcher who was ranked 10th in the Dodger system in the 2005 BA Handbook. He's 21 years old. He has a plus curve and change-up. His numbers aren't bad, but aren't impressive either. He hasn't pitched above class A. He's still a good ways away from the majors.

Jackson once was a top prospect. In the 2004 Handbook, BA ranked him the number one prospect in the Dodgers system. He's not nearly as highly regarded now, and maybe the Devil Rays believe they can right his career. We'll see. Interesting trade, nonetheless.

Which brings to bear another question, are the Astros criminally underrated? Seems they're like the Braves the last few years, always counted out despite recent success, but finding a way to get it done. I really don't think the Astros are underrated. Their offense wasn't anything special last year, and they have done nothing to improve it. They won with pitching which has taken a major hit without Clemens. If he returns in May, I wouldn't underate them, but without him, they are very beatable.

I agree that Pierre should out perform Eckstein. I'm a big proponent of looking at three-year averages. Pierre from 2003-2005 posted a line of 303/354/378. He averaged 56 SB's over the past three years at a 73% success rate. If he comes close to those numbers, the Cubs will have a successful lead-off hitter. Eckstein's three year line is 276/344/354. He's averaged 14 SB's per year at a 70% success rate. The stolen base really isn't part of his game like it is for Pierre, and I didn't think I could find anyone with less power than Pierre, but I did. Pierre is definitely the better, but I think the other spots in the line-up still give the Cardinals a better offense. But if all we're doing is comparing lead-off options, the Cubs have the edge.

If Wood is healthy, his value is much, much greater as a starter. Also, if Wood isn't healthy, Rusch is in the rotation. Not good. I just don't see the reasoning for this. It's a ridiculous decision.

This is horrible news. The only way Wood should be in the pen is if the Cubs conclude he will not ever be a starter. Baker is a joke and should be canned right now if that's his plan.

Here's my take on the NL Central as of 1/14/06: The Cardinals are still the hands down favorites. Even with some regression from Carpenter, Rolen will make up for the drop off they'll have in outfield production with the losses of Sanders and Walker. The Cardinals are hoping that 2005 was an aberration for Spivey and I don't like their chances for decent outfield production. On the other hand, the rotation is still solid if not very good with Carpenter, Mulder, Marquis, and Suppan. Reyes if he can remain healthy should be very productive as a number five. The bullpen has been re-tooled, but I figure it to be about equal to last year's production. I don't expect the Cardinals to be as good as last season, but a 90-95 win season isn't out of the question. The Astros still have work to do. If Clemens returns in May, they will be lots better. The top of the rotation is good with Oswalt and Pettitte. Backe isn't a bad #3, but there are huge question marks at the lower end of the rotation. The bullpen will be good for them, but the offense will still stuggle. They also have to still settle some issues with Bagwell and even if they do get the insurance money, is there anyone to spend it on. An outfield of Preston Wilson-Willy Taveras-Jason Lane just isn't impressive. Also, which Morgan Ensberg will appear? Will it be the stud from 2005 or the below average hitter of 2004? My guess is an 84 win season for the Astros. Clemens returning and pitching well could push that up to an 88-90 win season. The Brewers are up and coming and if all the young talent (Fielder, Hardy, Weeks) live up to hype and there isn't serious regression from Clark, the Brewers will be in contention. The have some nice veteran hitters in Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins and the rotation is anchored by Ben Sheets. The rest of the staff is solid. I think they could beneift by one more good pitcher. My gut feeling is they are still one starter and one year away from it, but they should me a team to watch out for. I'd pencil them in at 82-85 wins. Over 500, but barely. The Pirates just don't have enough. There's some nice pitching there (Duke, Perez with more kids on the way) and they've improved the line-up with Casey, but replacing Wilson with Burnitz isn't a good idea. Also, does adding Joe Randa really make a difference? They'll win some games against better teams, but a 79-81 win season is all I see them obtaining. The Reds will have some fire power on offense and will probably beat up on a lot of teams #4 & #5 starters, but when you're best pitcher is Aaron Harang, you've got serious problems. The Reds should trade Dunn for a number of young players, but they won't. As it is the Reds are good for around 70 wins. This brings me to the Cubs. If everything goes right (healthy and effective Wood, healthy Prior, healthy Zambrano, decent production from Williams as a #5) the Cubs could end up in first with 90-95 wins. The pitching could be that good. On the other hand, the offense has some holes (and those will get larger if Hendry trades away Walker), and likely will not be much better than last year's offense. The bullpen should be better, but realistically I think the Cubs are an 84-88 win team. That's likely not good enough for the playoffs. If everything goes right, then yes, but that's a lot to count on everything going right. If everything goes wrong (Lee regresses, Wood not effective, Maddux continues regressing Murton and Cedeno fail, Jones hits like he did last season) the Cubs could be a 75 win team and finish in fourth place. I hope that doesn't happen, but this team has a lot of question marks. Right now I'd pick the division to finish: 1. Cardinals 2. Cubs 3. Astros 4. Brewers 5. Pirates 6. Reds

If this is the line-up: (In parenthesis OBP/SLG past three yr avg- 2005 for Murton and Cedeno as there is no 3-year number) CF Pierre (354/378) 2b Walker (345/452) 1b Lee (385/559) 3b Ramirez (350/532) RF Jones (322/443) LF Murton (386/521) C Barrett (328/467) SS Cedeno (356/375) We may not be in horrible condition. We'd be counting on Pierre and Jones moving more toward their averages than what they did last season and we'd need Murton and Cedeno to look like the players they were last season. It's not a phenomenal line-up, but with Pierre, Walker, Lee and Ramirez the top four should be fine. Now for the rotation: (Three-year ERA/BAA) SP Zambrano (3.05/.225) SP Prior (3.23/234) SP Wood (3.54/219) SP Maddux (4.08/2.71) SP Rusch (4.77/297) or SP Williams (3.92/252) If Williams replaces Rusch and Zambrano, Prior, and Wood are healthy then the rotation would be as strong as any out there. While Maddux's numbers aren't good, there better than average as a number five. I think Williams numbers are as strong as many number three starters. Wood, Prior, and Zambrano all can pitch like a number one. If five of these pitchers can pitch to their three-year averages and stay healthy, our pitching will be good. I like the look of the bullpen with CL Dempster RHP Howry LHP Eyre RHP Williamson LHP Ohman RHP Wuertz and hopefully Rusch as swing man with Williams in the rotation. I think with that pen, we would be able to hold down the opposition on most days from the seventh inning on. The offense isn't strong, but if Walker starts over Neifi or Hairston and the rotation is healthy, then optimisitcally the Cubs could win the division. That's a lot of "if's" that have to happen right now.

I loved this one.

I've contended all along that Baker will play Walker if he's on the team. While I think Hendry does have an agenda to trade Walker, I'm not confident that Baker feels the same way. What I do believe is that Walker will sit against left handers in favor of Perez and is likely to get double switched out of a lot of games late for defensive reasons. But I think if Opening Day rolls around and the Cubs are facing a right hander, Todd Walker will be in the line-up.