vance_the_cubs_fan

I still think we're around 5 million under. I'll have to get home to check the figures for certain. Someone with better access to those numbers may be able to be more precise.

Gonzalez played on a minor league deal last year that guaranteed him 600,000. I don't see why he wouldn't do it one more time. Hidalgo made 5 million last season which was half of the 10 million he made in 2004. I could see him being reluctant to play for less than 1.5-3 million. The fact that Gonzo went through that last year could very easily be the reason why he wouldn't this season. He's made his money. Unless he's just passionate about the game and desperate to find a team, there's little incentive to sign to such a deal. His incentive could be reaching the HOF. He has 434 HRs. He's likely on the outside looking in as it is. If he could put up two more seasons of 30+ HR's, he might make it. Also, with his pedigree, if he put up a healthy and productive season, he should be able to get another lucrative one-year deal next season.

Gonzalez played on a minor league deal last year that guaranteed him 600,000. I don't see why he wouldn't do it one more time. Hidalgo made 5 million last season which was half of the 10 million he made in 2004. I could see him being reluctant to play for less than 1.5-3 million.

Slow news day, so I thought I'd beat this horse a few more times. I still can't understand why we won't sign either (if not both) of these guys to a non-roster deal. Gonzalez hasn't been healthy in three years, but the last year he was healthy, he was productive. Last year, he was willing to sign for 600,000. He's surely worth that in a high risk, high reward type move. He's 36 years old and could be a power bat off the bench as well as spell Jones against lefties. When he played in 2004, he still showed some power hitting 17 HR's in 33 games. I think he's worth a look. Hidalgo is even more intriguing. Hidalgo was bad last year, but word is he played with a sore wrist. His 2004 wasn't much better but he did hit 309/385/572 in 2003. He's only 30 years old, so it isn't out of the realm of possibilites for him to hit 270/335/490. He'd make a decent right-handed bat for the bench, and if he proves productive a great bat for the line-up. He plays great defense and has a better arm for rightfield than Jones. I'm baffled that neither of these guys have a job right now. It does make me wonder if there's not more information circling than I'm aware of, but I think that both of these guys would make intriguing NRI options and would add a nice story-line to follow this spring. Also, if either would be willing to play at Iowa, I think it could be a good deal since the number of outfielders in the upper levels leaves a lot to be desired.

LInk It appears the Reds are close to naming Jim Beattie their new GM.

Nice one! So does that put Spivey in the seventh spot?

I could see Sosa being successful as a DH in Texas. That ballpark could hide the deficiencies in his game.

I think it depends on the cost and how quickly he signs. The Cubs would not risk offering arbitration. If they did, Maddux would accept and the Cubs would be on the hook for another year of him at 9-11 million. That means for him to return to the Cubs the deal would have to be done by early December. If both Maddux and the Cubs want it to happen, it could. In all liklihood, the Cubs offer will not be in the ballpark of where Maddux and Boras want it and the arbitration deadline will force the Cubs and Maddux to part ways.

This move is baffling on a number of fronts. First, the Nationals already have a number of outfielders. There's Sledge, Church, Guillen and maybe Soriano. If Soriano doesn't play OF, then they have a surpluss of secondbasemen. The Nationals park also isn't a place that Sosa will thrive. I can see a team taking a flyer on Sosa, but I don't think it's a great place for Sosa or the Nats. Of course, at this stage, Sosa is likely thankful for any guaranteed major league contract.

According to this Newsday article, Joe Torre believes Clemens will pitch and that it'll likely be for the Astros. Clemens's agent said an announcement will be made after the WBC in March.

The Boston Herald thinks that Clemens to the Red Sox is a long shot. In fact, they seem to believe that the word around baseball is that if Clemens returns, he'll return to the Astros after May 1.

As if they didn't already have the market on aging pitchers.... Link.

It's hard to understand the mind of an idiot. I guess god has to create people like this...otherwise who would pick up my trash.

or laugh

If I'm around, I'll listen and give you an email or a call-in, but the wife is working so I'm having a night with me and my daughter. If she's being entertained by Barney, I may be free to call.

Wow....memories of the ESPN boards... except there this loser would have been around to post all season. I hope he one day moves out of his mother's house and no longer has to sell himself to support his meth habit.

You definitely offer arbitration to Pierre. He'll likely want to cash in on a multi-year deal, so he's unlikely to accept arbitration. I'd offer it to Walker as well. His salary is low enough that the financial risk is low. Someone would likely sign him, so the reward is worth the risk if he accepts. Wood is the tricky one, but assuming his option is declined, which unless he reverts to 2002-2003 numbers it will be, I'd still offer it if he pitches the entire year healthy. If Wood is healthy, he's going to get offers like Burnett got this year in the 3/33- 4/40 range. With his injury history, he's not likely to accept arbitration on a one year deal so he's worth the risk to offer. Also, it's likely the Cubs might want the extra time to continue negotiations with him. Hairston I'd only offer arbitration to if he fits within the team's plans. He could accept and become a very expensive bench player.

For the two batters in question for 2005: Eckstein: ZIPS- 267/333/328 PECOTA- 267/336/342 Actual- 294/363/405 This isn't surprising. Eckstein had a career year in 2005 and computer projection measures aren't going to be able to predict that. That year has been factored into his 2006 numbers. Pierre demonstrates the opposite. Pierre ZIPS- 308/362/371 PECOTA- 293/341/384 Actual- 286/337/371 Both systems over estimated Pierre in 2005 as Pierre performed below his career and 3-year norms. So, while both projections missed a little on each player, PECOTA has a high reliability in predicting hitters, not so reliable in predicting pitchers. Projecting stats is always a bit tricky, but PECOTA does as good a job with hitters as anyone.

ZIPS puts Pierre projects Pierre almost identical to the PECOTA line with a 293/346/364 with 52 SB's. On the other hand, ZIPS projection is a little more kind to Eckstein than PECOTA, projecting Eckstein to a 284/351/372 line with 11 SBs. Based on the ZIPS projection, the two playes have almost similar production.

Back to the original discussion of Cubs leadoff vs Cardinals leadoff. If we take PECOTA's estimation of 266/328/338 with 10 SB's for Eckstein and compare it to PECOTA's projection of 297/348/361 with 49 SB for Pierre, it's quite obvious who is the better option. According to PECOTA, Eckstein will have a VORP of 9.5 while Pierre will have a VORP of 13.0.

Lee's Career Al's Career' I love Derrek Lee as a player. That being said, your post is that of a crack head. Let's not be so hasty when Lee has had one great year. so, who do you think is better, carpenter or z? Oh boy, here we go... :D Carpenter won the Cy last year, and I would like him on the mound in any game. He is a fantastic pitcher and leader of a very underated staff. I would trade him for Z in a heartbeat because of age and raw talent. and if the cubs would have won the wild card, lee would have been the MVP. i just think that when the issue of lee and pujols come up, we should also evaluate what we think of carpenter and z. i'd take pujols in a minute over lee, but i wouldn't take carpenter for zambrano or prior. Excellent point. The same career numbers which make Pujols project better than Lee indicate Zambrano is likely to out perform Carp.

Unfortuantely we're still a ways away from any meaningful games yet. I'm not sure we'll see any meaningful games at all in 2006, but I'm still looking forward to it. They're all meaningful if you have a fantasy baseball team... :P Good point.

Buster Olney is reporting that Weaver is on the verge of signing with the Angels. Link.

Unfortuantely we're still a ways away from any meaningful games yet. I'm not sure we'll see any meaningful games at all in 2006, but I'm still looking forward to it.

I love Goony's sig!