vance_the_cubs_fan

Like he makes a difference.. :lol: J/k. (I'll go back and edit)

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/sportsstory.asp?id=169149 I agree with Bruce that the Cubs are better off if this trade doesn't happen.

Back in January, I had this to say about the Astros. I'll reiterate that I don't think the Astros will be a bad team, but I don't think they are that good either. The line-up will put a lot of pressure on the pitching. While Oswalt and Pettitte are capable of winning a number of 2-1, 3-2 ,1-0 games, I think Backe, Wandy, and whoever is in the fifth spot will need more offensive support. The bullpen will be a strength, but only if the offense can give a lead to protect. I'm not too certain of that. I'm guessing the line-up will be: Biggio 2b Everett SS Berkman 1b Wilson RF Ensberg 3b Lane LF Taveras CF Ausmus C That's a below average offense. Berkman is solid and Biggio should still get on base, but Everett, while defensively good is a black hole offensively. Wilson has posted OPS + of 103, 69, 115 from 2005-2003. He's 31, so a return to his prime isn't likely. I'd guess an OPS+ in the 100-105 range. Lane will provide some punch, but the bottom third of the line-up is abysmal. They'll need more pitching. Clemens returning is the only thing that would make the Astros contenders in August and September.

My guess Williamson could still be traded, but if he is, it will be a deal that happens in late June or July and will come from a team looking for a closer.

Cubs Press Notes

When does voting open? Usually around the end of April or 1st of May. I need people to pledge 100 votes a day for the duration and this one will be easy this year.

It's a good trade for Boston, bad trade for the Reds no matter how you spin it. Boston gets a 24-year old outfielder with "light-tower" power for a 29-year old barely league average pitcher. The Reds' pitching needs aside, this isn't a move that helps them. They aren't winning anything in 2006 and likely aren't going to be competitive either. Adding or not adding Arroyo doesn't change that. They could have traded Pena for a minor league arm with a much higher ceiling than Bronson. They would have gambled on "proveness" but at least could have gotten someone who might make a difference. As it is, they've gotten a pitcher who is likely to give them an ERA+ in the 90-100 range (which could be obtained in FA in any given year) and now have one less trading chip. Furthermore, they no longer have a surpluss to allow them to make the big deal that might have set them up for a run in 2007-2009. No matter, how you spin it, it's a bad deal for the Reds. Trading Pena for a pitcher who will be worse than Jerome Williams is just a bad idea. For the Red Sox, getting Pena is a gamble, but with a full rotation and Papelbon and Lester coming along, it was one they could afford to make.

We'll see. I think I might have to go http://www.wrigleyvillesports.com and pick one out now!

Marshall will throw his hat in the ring as the derby to start against the Pirates on 4/15 heats up. The Brewers respond with Chris CRapuano. According to broadcast schedules, neither WGN nor the Brewers affiliate is broadcasting the game. Go Cubs!

Thanks for the re-cap. It's nice to hear a good report on Hill.

The only way Washington does this is if they believe that Walker could play leftfield. I doubt they do. Now, a three-way that sends Walker to Baltimore, Matos and Wellemeyer to Washington, and Soriano to the Cubs could happen. Or, if the Cubs sent Hairston to Washington for Soriano, I could see that happening as well.

You think Wilkerson will out perform Soriano offensively? I think a move to the outfield will only improve Soriano's defensive numbers. 2B is too important for a player with his defensive deficiencies. However, Wilkerson would still probably out perform him defensively. I think it's pretty likely Wilkerson outperforms Soriano, especially given that they just swapped ballparks on opposite ends of the spectrum. I'm talking about offensive ability. I do agree that Soriano's power numbers will likely be affected in his new home park (that is if he takes the field or isn't traded). My point is, Soriano is a much more productive offensive player than Wilkerson. The past two years of OPS+ cast serious doubt on that.

You think Wilkerson will out perform Soriano offensively? I think a move to the outfield will only improve Soriano's defensive numbers. 2B is too important for a player with his defensive deficiencies. However, Wilkerson would still probably out perform him defensively. Three-year OPS plus. Wilkerson 2003: 104 2004: 128 2005: 105 Soriano 2003: 131 2004: 98 2005: 110 It's possible that Wilkerson could outproduce him. Wilkerson played last year with a lingering injury. If he's healthy, he could produce an OPS+ of 110-120. That would be the range I'd expect of Soriano.

Right. While not defending Soriano, I can imagine how irresponsible this was on Bowden's part not to check it out first. It would be one thing if he was moving someone he didn't trade for or if he had acquired Soriano for a "bargain" price on a gamble. He, however, gave away some good players to get him and now has egg all on his face.

Rosenthal thinks Bagwell's days are numbered. Link.

A trade will happen soon. I am certain of it. You beat me to it! LOL, now he's refusing to play... I'm glad the team has threatened not to pay him if he doesn't take the field next time. I'm also glad that Hendry wasn't able to get him last Fall. You assume that Hendry won't try to get him now?

I used to watch Cubs games last year with one of my elective classes, but this year the schedule doesn't work out so well. The students never complained, though most didn't pay much attention to the game.

Well, it's going to get ugly. Link A trade will happen soon. I am certain of it.

I could see Boston being interested in Scott Williamson for a late inning, possible closer if Foulke continues to suck.

In the last three seasons, Pena has produced an OPS+ of 66 in 03, 121 in 04, and 100 in 05. He's 24, so he's likely to be a productive player for the next few seasons. Arroyo has posted ERA+ of 121 in 2004 but 98 in 2005. (He had a 227 ERA+ in 2003, but that was in only 17.3 IP of relief). He's 29. He's likely to be an average pitcher for the remainder of his deal. His ERA+ will float around 100. He's better than a lot of fifth starters, will be decent as a number four, and would be a below average #2 or #3 starter. He's an older and more expensive Jerome Williams. (For those who'd like to disagree, here are Williams ERA+ for 2003-2005: 130, 105, 100.) Pena at age 24 has a chance to blossom into a very good hitter. With Arroyo, what you see is what you get. Boston made a steal here, and that's even if Pena doesn't pan out to much. Arroyo was the sixth starter behind Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield. Papelbon is likely a better pitcher than Arroyo, and with Lester coming along, Arroyo was useless. Pena will make an excellent platoon for Nixon and gives them another young outfielder to pair with Crisp for the future of the franchise. I understand the Reds need pitching, but is Arroyo really the type of pitching they need? He's not a difference maker and they aren't an Arroyo away from competing. Now their offense (which was their one strength) is weaker and their pitching isn't appreciably better. I can't fathom that there wasn't a better deal out there to be made.

I previously turned off sigs and avatars...but then I realized I like seeing them!

I just got back from the dentist. Good to see a nice few innings from Hill. Guzman seemed to settle nicely as well. I don't think Goony's pic has anything to do with sex. It looks like a cheerleader doing a dance move or something like that to me. Improved flexibility is a good thing. Keep the sig, goony.

The day Ponson is declared the fifth starter, I'm sending a case of scotch to him as a congratulations gift.

Prior: 4/25 vs Florida Wood: 5/12 vs Dan Diego Miller: 5/26 vs Atlanta

I still have a feeling that Walker starts vs most righties and Hairston starts against lefties.