vance_the_cubs_fan

Five year PECOTA projections from BP: Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP 2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3 2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3 2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8 2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9 2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0 Doesn't look good. How would he get these numbers? That .245 slugging for example-the lowest slugging he has ever had in his career was .303-and that was when he was 22 and breaking into the league. Somebody brought up the point of why people would think he would improve-the simple answer is that he has improved every year in his career until he got hurt. His OBP went from .253 to .282 to .330 in 3 years, and was at .387 the next year-and then he played hurt, and it dropped down to the .302 number. We can't be sure about this years numbers yet-he hasn't had enough at-bats. For example, his OBP jumped 6 points tonight-and if he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow, it could go down those 6 points just as fast. So now that he's coming back healthy from the surgery, we simply expect him to keep improving like he did every year right up to the injury. Is it a sure thing that he will do that? Of course not-but it is perfectly reasonable that a man who improved every single year from 22 years old till 25 will continue to improve now that he is healthy again. One of the strengths of PECOTA is that it compares players to historical equivalents. Why you ask that there might be a dip in SLG% is a key point. Players career numbers aren't that consistent. Players have gains and losses over the course of individual seasons. In fact, it is highly unrealistic to assume he will put up gains in every subsequent season without having a dip somewhere.

Five year PECOTA projections from BP: Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP 2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3 2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3 2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8 2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9 2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0 Doesn't look good. Have him run the numbers and tell me who'll win the World Series the next 5 years. I'm planning a Vegas trip late in the year and could really use some cash. Did Bill predict Bobby Abreu's power numbers falling off so dramatically? That information would have been nice before my fantasy draft. Well, if the projections are so off base, make yours and we'll see which come closer. PECOTA has its flaws, but comprehensively, it's been extremely reliable.

I'd like Matthews, but I'm not sure what he will cost. Preferably, I'd move Jones to CF and look to find a big bat in RF.

Five year PECOTA projectsion from BP: Year AVG OBP SLG VORP WARP 2006 .262 .305 .337 5.2 3.3 2007 .265 .308 .245 6.3 3.3 2008 .260 .309 .335 4.5 2.8 2009 .265 .312 .341 6.1 2.9 2010 .257 .304 .334 2.5 2.0 Doesn't look good. That's an understatement.

OPS+ per season over first 4 years of career. Neifi 85 70 61 66 Cesar 52 61 88 68 Can you tell me what Izturis' will be the next 3 years? That's what I am really concerned about... No one can say with certainty, but based on his track record, he'll be a below average hitter.

Someone needs to find Burnt and tell him it's his pick again.

My problem with Izturis is that he's due 4.5 million next season and brings little value other than his glove. If the Cubs decide to go with a Ceden0-Izturis MI, we'll have two black holes in the offense. Considering that Jacque Jones is also signed for next season, the potential to upgrade the offense exists only in left and center field.

It looks like Hill may be more than a bullpen pitcher, eh?

I thought we discussed the Platinum Club in another thread.

Why? We're out of the race anyway. . I can't argue with that.

It would've been nice to have some of these runs last night.

Nope, Fred. It's a homerun!

Three more runs and we may have a lead that even Hill won't give up.

Rich now has a four-run lead. I hope he's up to the task tonight.

Well, two scoreless from Hill. Keep it up, Rich!

I have no idea what my first post was about....

Let's see if Hill can protect a 2-run lead a little better this time.

As I read that, I wondered if he wouldn't have been a better acquisition than Izturis.

Mark my words (and kent, I hope I'm wrong) but with Hendry as GM, the Cubs won't sniff a playoff spot.

I'll be looking for you!

This is getting old. Please stop. I've read enough of posts like this in the maddux/walker rant/trade threads. Please stop, it's hurting me. I mean this honestly and in peace. The solution is quite simple: Go to another message board. No. A better solution would be for guys here to stop moaning about Izturis and see what he can do for the Cubs the rest of the year. The easy solution is to moan and complain. I've done enough moaning for this year already. Now I'm ready to look foward to next year. Izturis is obviously part of that plan. That's what I've been moaning about!

If the Rockies can rally and win the World Series, we might be after players who love Jesus.

Excepting the outfield situation, you could live with Izturis (he is an excellent defensive player) at short if the rest of the infield is Ramirez-Soriano-Lee. Of course, Ramirez can opt out and Soriano is going to be pursued and then overpaid. And, of course, you can't except the terrible outfield situation. The offense is going to be ugly I'll agree with this statement.

Arguing over who is best between Neifi and Izturis is akin to be trying to figure out who's the better runner. My fat 87-year old grandma with a bad hip and a walker, or my fat 90-year old grandma with a bad toe and a walker with a case of gout. It really doesn't matter.

If we're going to have to live with Izturis at short, I'd pursue Soriano for second. At least we would have some production from the middle infield.