vance_the_cubs_fan
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Everything posted by vance_the_cubs_fan
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When those outfielders can post OPS of above 900 and can be had on a one year deal, it makes lots of sense...especially to a team in need of offense!
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If Bonds broke Aaron's record en route to leading the Cubs to the playoffs, I'd be all for it.
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Good analysis. I just wonder if last season's decline (yes, I'd take a "decline" that good myself) won't cause genuine concern amongst g.m.'s that it may get steeper next year, and that - combined with age and possible PED's may keep people from a guaranteed contract. I, like you, doubt it because he's not declined yet, but as a g.m. I could make the argument that it wasn't just about the record, that's for sure. It would be a weak argument giving some contracts handed out in the past. Even with a decline of 125 OPS points, Bonds is still going to be above 800. I just don't see how he doesn't get at least an offer of 6-8 million. If the Cubs pass on him at that price, I'd be pissed.
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I'd bet any other player who could put up a 900 OPS would get at least one significant offer even with injury concerns. Is anyone seriously suggesting that for an AL team he's not the best possible DH on the FA market and worth 10 million a year with his 900+ OPS?
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I think the difference in Sammy and Bonds is that Sammy's production was no longer there. Sosa declined from 279/358/553 in 2003, to 253/332/517 in 2004 to 221/295/376 in 2005. The decline from 2004 to 2005 was dramatic. While he might have bounced back, it makes sinse why teams would not take the chance. His 2003-2004 numbers are good while his 2005 numbers are simply not acceptable. Bonds on the other hand has yet to show such a sharp decline. While he's not hitting like he did in the MVP years, he's still producing at an all-star level. Bonds still hit 270/454/545 last year. He could still help a team. In fact his numbers are better than almost any hitter available in FA. While Carlos Lee will be the better long term sign, for 2007 only, Bonds is the better bet. Bonds might also out produce Soriano as well.
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Link. Ass or not, I wouldn't mind having Barry in LF for a year.
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Don Mattingly has been promoted to bench coach for the NY Yankees. Link. This is a move that will further fuel speculation that Mattingly will take over for Torre at the end of the season. It's also not a good omen for Girardi if he had been hoping to get the Yankees job at the end of the season.
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WS: Cardinals vs. Tigers
vance_the_cubs_fan replied to UK1679666180's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
[expletive]! -
And only two will ever be a Cub.
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I've already admitted that the Cubs won't do it. Hendry lacks the creativity to even consider it. It's part of the reasons the Cubs constantly let options pass that would improve the team. But just because it won't happen doesn't make it fodder for discussion. We're not going to trade for Arod either, but there's lots of threads on it. In fact, we're more likely to bring back Alou than we are to get Arod. We're also not going to get Zito, but people bring him up all the time. I think the chances for signing Alou are as good as getting Zito. The Cubs are more likely to sign Alou than they are to be able to trade for John Lackey, but I've seen someone constantly bring up that idea for the past year as well. If we only talked about the limited moves our brain trust could actually pull off, we'd run out of things to talk about. Zito!!!!!! PLEASE HENDRY!!!!!!! http://thediamondangle.com/archive/july03/oakland/75a_big.jpg Not going to happen. Mets, Yankees or Dodgers.
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Lots of rumors from my Texas connections that Hicks is going to go big on Daisuke.
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I've already admitted that the Cubs won't do it. Hendry lacks the creativity to even consider it. It's part of the reasons the Cubs constantly let options pass that would improve the team. But just because it won't happen doesn't make it fodder for discussion. We're not going to trade for Arod either, but there's lots of threads on it. In fact, we're more likely to bring back Alou than we are to get Arod. We're also not going to get Zito, but people bring him up all the time. I think the chances for signing Alou are as good as getting Zito. The Cubs are more likely to sign Alou than they are to be able to trade for John Lackey, but I've seen someone constantly bring up that idea for the past year as well. If we only talked about the limited moves our brain trust could actually pull off, we'd run out of things to talk about.
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I'll try to answer: No, there is no guarantee he won't get injured, but if he's platooning and PH, he's less likely to get injured, as Vance already said. One person thinks he'll cost a lot, but then thinks no one will want to offer him $7 million, so he won't cost that much. And please explain your third question. He doesnt deserve 7 million, but some GM will take the risk of signing him to that kind of deal. Who? Oakland. They had success with Big Hurt, I dont see why they wouldnt take another risk on a Big Hurt type player. Where would Alou fit in with Oakland? How is Alou anywhere near Thomas in ability? LF. Alou and Thomas are great fastball hitters. They both could hit 30Hr next year. I don't doubt Oakland would have interest, but I doubt they offer 7 million. Oakland doesn't usually throw that much money around. Oakland likely offers at most 3-4 million. The Cubs may not be able to offer as much playing time, but they can equal if not beat the money.
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I'll try to answer: No, there is no guarantee he won't get injured, but if he's platooning and PH, he's less likely to get injured, as Vance already said. One person thinks he'll cost a lot, but then thinks no one will want to offer him $7 million, so he won't cost that much. And please explain your third question. He doesnt deserve 7 million, but some GM will take the risk of signing him to that kind of deal. Who? Oakland. They had success with Big Hurt, I dont see why they wouldnt take another risk on a Big Hurt type player. A few fallacies there with Oakland. a) Their chance with Big Hurt was at 500 K. b) They are talking about re-signing Thomas at a 2/15 deal. Would they then sign Alou for 7 million when he would have to play OF with Thomas at DH?
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Dominican Winter League
vance_the_cubs_fan replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Pie's numbers took a jump! -
WS: Cardinals vs. Tigers
vance_the_cubs_fan replied to UK1679666180's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
This isn't looking good. -
I'll try to answer: No, there is no guarantee he won't get injured, but if he's platooning and PH, he's less likely to get injured, as Vance already said. One person thinks he'll cost a lot, but then thinks no one will want to offer him $7 million, so he won't cost that much. And please explain your third question. He doesnt deserve 7 million, but some GM will take the risk of signing him to that kind of deal. Who?
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I think Alou will get roughly 100 starts. At his age, I don't think he would get more than that without getting hurt. Assume that the Cubs will face a LH in 65 games next season. If all of those starts went to Alou, he'd take 35 starts from Murton to get to 100 games started. Alou could start 100 games. Jones would likely start about 97 games or roughly 100. Murton still starts 120-130 games. I don't see that as that much of a problem. Having the option of one of those players as a pinch hitter also looks to be quite an advantage.
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If used in a platoon role, I think the chance of injury is lessened. If we have Alou along with Jones and Murton, the damage when he is injured is lessened as well. I think his age and injury history will keep most teams from spending a lot on him. He made 7 million last year. I think 4-6 is a decent range to expect for him. We've tried the nice guy route and sucked. I'll take a team full of pissing bastards if we can win. We've pretty much sucked since Alou left town.
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If he's signed as the fourth outfielder, that's not as much of a problem. 7 million for a bench player is a problem. 3 million for a broken down reliever who can't pitch on consecutive days is probably a bigger problem. Spending 10-12 million on RF is not a problem if it's productive. I dont know where you got the idea of Moises Alou taking a bench role. He'll turn 41 next season and hasn't played a full season in two years. Teams are going to be reluctant to sign him as a starter and pay him big bucks with those concerns. A limited role where he gets 90-100 starts would be ideal for him, both in keeping him healthy and keeping him productive. Now, whether or not Alou sees it this way, I don't know. My guess is that his offers will be limited. Surely some teams will offer a starting job, but it may be at less money than what the Cubs could pay. I'll say I'm certain the Cubs won't even pursue this. Hendry lacks the creativity to think of this move.
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If he's signed as the fourth outfielder, that's not as much of a problem. He's still a guy that can put up a great average and still give you a decent amount of HR's a year. I'm sure a starting job will be open to him somewhere. You may be right. But then again, if we offered him more money to be the 4th OF than another team offered him to start, would he take the extra cash for the limited role. My guess is most NL teams will be worried about his age and durability in the field and won't pay him big bucks for that reason. So, it would have to be an AL team with an opening at DH that signs him. I can see Cleveland, Detroit, and Texas...maybe Minnesota. How large of a contract will those teams offer? I can see the Cubs topping what those teams will offer even if they are planning on using him in a more limited role. I really see the Astros most likely to try to get him.
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If he's signed as the fourth outfielder, that's not as much of a problem. 7 million for a bench player is a problem. 3 million for a broken down reliever who can't pitch on consecutive days is probably a bigger problem. Spending 10-12 million on RF is not a problem if it's productive.
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If he's signed as the fourth outfielder, that's not as much of a problem.
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I'm sorry if you don't like productive players. http://www.mace27.com/photos/041704/18.jpg That's my guy right there. And you are worried about Alou getting hurt and not being productive??!?
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I'm sorry if you don't like productive players. http://www.mace27.com/photos/041704/18.jpg