Cuzi
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Everything posted by Cuzi
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Who is giving him credit for innings he didn't pitch? You are acting like Schmidt is Taillon. Schmidt got injured and missed a few months mid season. I was simply showing how good he was pitching and in a full season he was pacing for a full WAR better than Taillon, or 150% of Taillons worth and he cost $2M. I guess that's "close."
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If you give Schmidt Imanaga's innings this year, Schmidt is our best pitcher and he pitches in the AL East and it's his sophomore season as a starter in MLB. He's 79th percentile in missing bats. Taillon is 7th. Schmidt is better than Taillon and it's not really that close, imo. Taillon writes checks that his defense cashes. The Cubs can sign a Schmidt, but that version of Schmidt isn't going to cost $5M.
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If they dont care about dumping his salary then they likely dont care about trading him. He's owed $24M in each of the next 3 seasons, along with a vesting option for $25M. Value that option however you want. Even if you ignore the option he isn't worth the $24M/yr. He has been regressing for 2 seasons now and is more like Jameson Taillon right now. Add to the fact that the NTC is going to limit who they can even negotiate with because he gets to choose where he goes, then they aren't getting a damn thing for him. If they are hoping to trade Castillo for an equal value bat, it's not happening. Cash would be the #1 reason to trade him. For instance, the Mariners need 2B/3B. Say the Astros don't re-sign Bregman. Bregman's AAV is probably going to be pretty damn close to Castillo's AAV.
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I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Castillo, but he's strictly a salary dump in my eyes. He's negative value right now. Only reason I somewhat like the idea is because the Cubs love working with sliders and a big part of why Castillo lost a lot of his effectiveness this year was all the movement he lost on his slider. I would only trade a lottery ticket for him and probably ask for cash along with Castillo. With that said, is it worth it for the Mariners to dump his salary?
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Seattle doesn't need an outfielder, so the chances are probably pretty damn close to 0, maybe even negative. Not sure how Kirby comes out to lesser value than Miller or Woo, either. If the Mariners are moving a pitcher, it's probably 1) trying to convince Luis Castillo to waive his NTC 1 year before he doesn't have it any more, 2A) Woo, 2B) Miller.
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I just wonder how much of a chunk a guy like Owen Caissie would take out of the return for a Schmidt + Beeter package. I would imagine the Yankees would love his left handed power.
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I wonder how available Clark Schmidt will be this offseason. If the Yankees lose Soto, they have 2 spots in the outfield to fill with Verdugo almost certainly not coming back. Jasson Dominguez is bound to get one of those spots, but they dont have anything for the other spot. They also need a new 2B/3B with Torres gone and Chisholm filling in wherever. They also need 1B. There's a lot to line up with the Cubs there and Schmidt is like #4 in their rotation with their top pitching prospect throwing some in MLB late in the season. Schmidt would fit that Paredes type trade Jed was hinting at.
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Cubs have Vazquez and they'll have to add Ben Cowles to the 40 min this winter. That's 2 backup middle infielders. No need to rush Shaw to the majors to ride the bench for maybe 30 starts.
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Because it's the Cubs? Because they are the 4th largest market in baseball? Because that's what the market says it takes to get top tier talent? Because in the grand scheme of Cubs revenue a single mega contract doesn't mean a damn thing?
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1 year remaining. Swept out of playoffs. About to sit down with Bregman and negotiate a new contract. The Astros aren't against spending money, but they also havent chased contracts that Tucker is going to command. If they sign Bregman to a new deal, I can easily see a world where they unload Tucker for a very nice package of players and continue to build around Alvarez, Altuve, and Bregman.
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Every team in baseball signing these deals see's a downside that you disagree with. Only Cole and Yamamoto have gotten opt outs. Cole's opt out can be voided by the Yankees, if he exercises it. Yamamoto's opt out comes at age 30 because the Dodgers gave him the years to stretch out enough dollars to make him the highest paid pitcher in baseball, but really he's bringing in way less on a yearly basis. So by the time his opt out comes around, assuming he pitches up to his ace potential he showed, he'll be getting paid half his worth, so it's basically a sure thing.
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That's fine with me. If they legitimately offer $600M and he chooses a different team then I'm not going to hold it against them. While it would suck to not get him, at the same time you aren't planning on Soto being the center piece of your roster for 8+ years and potentially getting the rug pulled out from under you after 3. So you can move on with plan B accordingly.
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Nope. I'd call his bluff and tell him to go get more money from another team. Good luck.
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It's not "Ok fine" if he leaves. It's now my entire roster construction just got crumpled up and thrown in the trash because one of the best players in the league that I've built my team around just walked out the door. But it's ok... I'll just go get another Soto, right?
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You can disagree all you want. It simply doesn't make sense from a team stand point which is why these contracts dont come with opt outs. A team is on the hook for the entire contract. There is no opt out for the organization. So if you are throwing that kind of money on the table then you are already accepting the possibility the last few years might suck. But you are doing that on the basis that this player is probably going to be one of the best damn players in the game for a lot of that deal and by the time the contract is coming to an end, the $40M+ he signed for 14 years ago is a smaller % of your payroll. If I'm the person handing out $600M in guaranteed money, your not getting out of the deal. I'm taking all the risk. The player isn't leaving money on the table where an opt out is even a negotiation.
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The only reason Soto would opt out if he was outperforming the remaining $450M on the contract. If that is the case, then you have a bargain franchise player because he's going to cost MORE to re-sign. Teams have moved away from offering opt outs in these type of deals because it makes no sense from a team perspective.
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If I'm signing Soto to $600M, he's not getting a single opt out, much like every other player to sign a mega deal within the last 5 or so years.
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Doubt we sign either one. Both are going to get a QO, and in Fried's case he's no better than the top 2 in our rotation. Jed has shied away from QO players and if we are indeed going over the CBT, then the penalty is going to be more significant giving more reason for Jed to avoid them. Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi probably has more appeal to Jed, or trading for a guy like Sandy Alcantara.
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Assad being the guy to pitch in the pen or the rotation.
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And we'll still end up 8 games behind the Brewers.
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I'm in the same boat. Hoyer sounds like an agent trying to sell Bellinger on the idea that the grass is greener outside Wrigley. I'm probably like 70/30 he opts in. I don't think he did enough this year to get a better deal than he currently has. However, a deciding factor might be the amount of time on the field he thinks he can get on the Cubs. CF is no longer an option for him outside of spot starts. There's no need to have him play 1B outside of some late inning substitution position shuffling. It's RF/DH for him. Does the potential of the Yankees losing Soto with a need at 1B and the knowledge of the Yankees past pursuit of him sway him to opt out and play on a similar structured contract in a much, much, much more friendly park for his profile? I dunno. I tend to think it might, especially if he is still searching for that retirement contract.
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I can easily see 2 SP additions, with the 2nd one being a 2 year deal for Shane Bieber who should be ready to pitch early to mid season. Then Assad becomes trade bait.
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Every player I named is retained on the Cubs payroll for this season. Bellinger being the only one with the possibility of remaining in 2025, and Jed is crossing his fingers he opts out, because if he doesn't virtually every position on the field, besides catcher is locked in.
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Mancini, Gomes, Barnhart, remainder of Neris' deal, Bellinger was pretty bad value this year. You can argue the length doesn't make them bad deals, but Mancini and Barnhart were 2 terrible deals that he decided needed 2 years to sign.
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Guess Jed forgot about the $20M or so he wrapped up in bad contracts to journeyman players. Wonder which dumpster he's going to dive into to replace those "good contracts."
