Brandon Glick

A young righty with a lively fastball and a downright outrageous curveball, Ben Brown impressed when healthy this season. However, it appears that his rookie year is over. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Back on May 28, Ben Brown had the best start of his young career, throwing seven innings of no-hit baseball against the Milwaukee Brewers, punching out 10. His ERA dropped to 2.72 after that outing, and despite his rookie status, Brown was fast becoming a fixture in a surprisingly deep Chicago Cubs rotation. Unfortunately, that’s the last we would see of that version of Brown. He surrendered eight runs in nine innings in two June starts against the Cincinnati Reds, before getting shut down with a neck injury. In the months since he was put on the injured list, neither the player nor the team has achieved clarity about the problem, with the ailment being referred to as a “benign area of concern” at one point--a term that gorgeously illustrates the uncertainty involved. Fans have simply waited patiently for Brown’s return, or at least any subsequent updates. We finally got an update this week, though it wasn’t the one anybody had been hoping for. Manager Craig Counsell all but closed the door on the rookie’s season, barring a miraculous turn of events over the next four weeks. Assistant GM Jared Banner confirmed that plan in a weekend interview on 670 The Score. At this point, there isn’t much reason for the North Siders to rush Brown back, even in the middle of a fervent push for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. He’s simply too valuable to the team’s future, either as a starter or a reliever. Whatever potential benefits the team may receive from having an active but diminished Brown in the final month of this season are dwarfed by the risks of reinjury, or the righty sustaining something more serious. Last season, exclusively in the upper levels of the minor leagues (Double-A and Triple-A), Brown posted an impressive stat line: 26 G, 19 GS, 92.2 IP, 73 H, 57 BB, 130 K, 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. There was some clamoring for him to come up at the end of the year as a hard-throwing reliever, but a different injury muddled those hopes. The Cubs resisted the noise and kept stretching him out as a starting pitcher over the offseason. The choice was the right one, as Brown pitched to a 3.58 ERA in 55 ⅓ innings this season in the big leagues. Had it not been for his injury, there’s a reasonable chance Brown could have competed for the Rookie of the Year award (or at least second place, since Paul Skenes is practically the MLB equivalent of the Bogeyman on the mound). He was a versatile arm in his rookie season, appearing in 15 games, seven of which were starts. If you toss away his awful debut in the season’s opening series against the Texas Rangers - when he allowed six earned runs in just 1 ⅔ innings - Brown was outright dominant in 2024, pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 2.80 FIP. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, while only allowing 3.1 walks per nine. His ground-ball percentage of 38.7% was subpar, but he did a solid job of keeping the ball in the park (8.1% home run to fly ball ratio), and earned every bit of his 115 ERA+ (i.e., Brown was 15% better than the league average pitcher this season, adjusting for each stadium). If there’s something he can work on moving forward, it’s limiting hard contact and adding a third pitch to his arsenal. Brown ranked in the 5th percentile or worse in average exit velocity allowed (91.8 mph, 1st percentile), Barrel % allowed (10.9%, 5th percentile), and hard-hit percentage allowed (51.4%, 1st percentile). Those are frighteningly bad marks that portend a significant drop-off in performance moving forward, but really, it’s just because his fastball, for all its velocity, is extremely predictable. Brown threw his famed knuckle-curve 303 times this year, yielding a ridiculous .141 batting average from opposing hitters. His fastball, on the other hand, was thrown 532 times and smacked to the tune of a .250 batting average and .352 slugging percentage. When hit, Brown’s fastball was really squared up, as hitters produced an average exit velocity of 92.2 miles per hour off of it. That, in turn, led to the pitch having an expected slugging against of .523, a 171 point difference between the actual slugging percentage mark it produced. The only other pitch Brown offered last year was a changeup. He threw it 14 times, half of which led to base hits. As such, you can expect him to ditch or heavily modify the pitch this offseason, if he’s healthy enough to work. His fastball has the velocity (average of 96.4 mph) to be successful, but he needs more in his arsenal to keep hitters guessing if he’s going to be a starter and face entire lineups more than once on a given day. If he’s ready to convert to being a reliever, he’ll make a pretty good living on his fastball-curveball combo. Assuming he’s healthy going forward and doesn’t suffer any long-term damage from his neck injury, Brown should be a lock for the Cubs’ pitching staff for the next half-decade. He’s got the stuff to compete at the highest level, and the improved control he showed in his rookie season proved that he’s growing as a pitcher. The 2025 season may seem far off right now, but it’s easy to salivate on Brown’s potential when next season begins. 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It's why, for better or worse, Cubs fans are known as so fiercely loyal. Whether the team is winning or losing 100 games, the fans are in the stands.

It's very rare that they make mistakes like this, but when they do, they really f up. The Arozarena and Alcantara trades were also really bad for them.

Riding a three-game winning streak and seeking one final push to make the playoffs, the Cubs claimed a veteran righty off waivers from their biggest division rival. Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs, now at 68-66, are still fighting for life ahead of the final month of the 2024 season. As @Matthew Trueblood pointed out earlier today, the Cubs still need some reinforcements in the bullpen as they look to make some noise in September. Though they didn’t elect to claim Taylor Rogers off waivers, they did follow Trueblood’s instructions, plucking right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong off waivers from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Armstrong wasn’t designated for any performance-related reasons. Indeed, he was quite solid in his very brief stint in St. Louis, pitching to a 2.84 ERA in 12 and ⅔ innings with an impressive 12:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That represented a tangible improvement over the 5.40 ERA he authored in 46 and ⅔ innings with the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this year. It was just last month that the Cardinals sought out to help Armstrong achieve the exact kind of performance he’s had, trading away former top prospect Dylan Carlson at the trade deadline in order to acquire Armstrong, a half-year rental, for the remainder of the 2024 season. While the reliever has performed adequately, the Cardinals have not, dropping to 6.0 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League, slipping beneath both the Cubs and the New York Mets in the standings. Much like how the Los Angeles Angels dumped most of their prized deadline acquisitions a year ago in an effort to barely skirt the luxury tax, the Cardinals are doing the same now, essentially punting on the remainder of this season while trying to save some money. Beyond Armstrong, the team also designated Tommy Pham for assignment, another rental deadline acquisition. While the Cubs and Cardinals are separated by just one game in the standings at the time of the move, the teams are headed in different directions. The Cubs have a positive run differential of plus-36, compared to the Cardinals ugly -57 differential, giving Chicago an expected win-loss record of 71-63. The Cardinals’ expected record is just 61-73. Most importantly, though, the North Siders surprisingly passed the first luxury tax threshold willingly this season at the trade deadline, which gave them ample reason to claim a successful reliever for the stretch run. Unlike the Cardinals, who are trying to avoid penalties by waiving Pham and Armstrong, the Cubs are already mired in the first tier of overages. Bringing another major league contract aboard does them no harm, outside of the minor financial penalties they’ll face. The Cubs are assuming roughly $330k in salary commitments for the rest of the season (Armstrong’s pro-rated salary based on his $2.05 million arbitration figure), and as such they’ll incur about $66,000 in luxury tax penalties as well. Armstrong will be a free agent after this season. Expect him to be added to the major league roster in the next 24 hours, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Craig Counsell heavily deploy the veteran reliever who made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. By claiming Armstrong on August 30, the right-hander will be eligible for the playoffs if he is added to the roster before September 1, should the Cubs make it to the postseason. View full article

Trading with the Rays is a dangerous game, but rather than any sort of fleecing, the Paredes-for-Morel swap appears to be a lose-lose in the early going. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Last month, ahead of the MLB trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs completed a rare major-leaguer for major-leaguer swap with the Tampa Bay Rays, sending Christopher Morel (and prospects Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson) to Florida in exchange for third baseman and former Cubs prospect Isaac Paredes. The trade was met with lukewarm reception, as Morel was a homegrown talent who has shown prodigious power in the past, though he was a non-factor offensively for large swaths of time this season. Paredes, on the other hand, had a .245/.357/.435 slash line at the time of the deal, earning an All-Star appearance on the back of his power and strong defense at the hot corner. In 2023, he hit 31 homers and garnered some down-ballot MVP votes for his performance in the middle of a talented Tampa Bay lineup, and this year was proving to be more of the same--before he made his way to the Windy City. From the moment Paredes donned the Cubs’ pinstripes, he’s struggled mightily at the plate. From an aggregate perspective, it’s more of the same from an offense that has frustrated and disappointed fans all season, but it’s even more maddening when looking at the individual. In his first 92 plate appearances with the North Siders, Paredes is batting a paltry .146/.228/.268, and he’s been worth an astounding -0.7 WAR in just 23 games into his Cubs tenure. Perhaps worst of all, his usually steady defense has also been a disaster, as he’s accounted for -0.3 dWAR in just 185 innings at the hot corner thus far. Manager Craig Counsell spoke out about Paredes’ struggles a few days ago, citing the young third baseman’s work ethic and past success as reasons for believing this funk will end before the season does. “He just hasn’t got on track offensively, there’s no question about it. He’d tell you the same thing. And we certainly are taking note of it, and he’s working his tail off to fix it," Counsell said. "He’s a quiet, quiet kind of competitor, but he’s a really hard-working kid. And he cares a lot. It’s hard to see it sometimes. And so this is frustrating for him. There’s no question that this hurts him to not be playing well, but he will get there. He will. He will get there. He will get back on track. And we’ve got to help him do it. That’s our job.” For a guy who really needs some of his big swings to start working out, this is a disastrous early return on the trade for Jed Hoyer. Morel was a popular fixture in the clubhouse for both fans and teammates alike, and Bigge and Johnson have at least some value given their lively arms. When dealing with the Rays, you have to be sure that you know what you’re doing, lest you get hoodwinked into completing a trade that ends up being completely one-sided. Just ask the Twins. Or the Astros. Or the Pirates. Counsell is right, and Paredes will probably recover from this superslump, which began before the trade. That doesn't offer much solace at the moment, though. And yet, at least so far, the Rays have been struggling to get any positive value out of their end of the trade too. Morel has been every bit of the disaster that Paredes has been, slashing .188/.286/.325 in 91 plate appearances in Tampa Bay. While his .611 OPS looks a bit more tolerable next to Paredes’s ghastly .496 mark, Morel has already been worth the same -0.3 dWAR in just 108 innings. He’s also doing it at (arguably) a less valuable position, having switched over to second base since arriving in Florida. That probably doesn’t make you feel much better about the swap, but it’s at least nice to know the Cubs weren’t the sole reason for Morel’s season-long funk at the dish. The Cubs are hovering right around .500 right now, mired in the morass of the NL Central's also-rans. They’re still more than 10 games behind the Brewers, and they remain behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants in the Wild Card race. A turnaround at the plate and in the field from Paredes would go a long way toward helping the team make the sort of playoff push most thought was dead in the water after the Trade Deadline. In the bigger picture, though, the Cubs have to figure out why their top offensive contributors can’t seem to piece together consistent stretches of quality plate appearances. The nature of a 162-game season means even the best hitters will have hot and cold streaks, but no team can compete when half the lineup is perpetually hip-deep in the mud. Morel’s continued struggles in Tampa Bay notwithstanding, the Cubs have done a painfully poor job of helping their best offensive players develop throughout the course of a season. Seeing a switch flip for Paredes would be nice to see for the sake of relief, but it could also portend a fundamental change that the Cubs have needed for a long while. View full article

Injuries are mounting in the minor leagues, though rumors regarding September call-ups have started to make the rounds. View full video

If the Cubs want to make a push towards the playoffs, it has to happen in the next few weeks thanks to a favorable schedule. View full video

The season is hanging by a thread, but thanks to a fortuitous schedule over the next few weeks, the Cubs’ playoff hopes aren’t dead in the water--yet. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports As things stand in the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies are barreling toward an NL East crown; the Milwaukee Brewers are mortal locks for the NL Central title; and the Los Angeles Dodgers are probably going to run away with the NL West. Beyond them, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are jockeying for the first and second Wild Card seeds, and barring an epic collapse, they'll grab them with room to spare. That leaves one playoff spot for the following teams: Atlanta, the New York Mets, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Cincinnati Reds, the San Francisco Giants, and the Chicago Cubs. With a record of 59-63, the Cubs are currently last among that group of fringe contenders, though they’re only 5.5 games behind the Braves, who sit atop the heap. Having to climb past five teams is hard enough in mid-August, and the fact that the Cubs only play the Reds (among the Wild Card hopefuls) from here on out makes their potential playoff push that much more difficult. The math is hard to work out. Even if the Cubs go on a run, it just takes one of those other five squads going on a similar winning streak to keep Chicago out of the Big Dance. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs’ playoff odds sit at a mere 3.6%, and even that number is buoyed by a projected 1.7% chance to steal the division, which seems like an impossibility given the way the Brewers have played this season. Among the quintet above them in the standings, only the Reds have playoff odds in the same neighborhood as the Cubs, currently sitting at 5.3%. However, the Cubs have the benefit of a very light schedule over the next couple of weeks, playing the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers at Wrigley, heading out to face the Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Washington Nationals, and then returning home to face the Pirates at the beginning of September. Each of those teams possesses a record worse than the Cubs' right now, and all of them are well out of the playoff picture. If the Cubs have any plans on making a valiant effort to sneak into the postseason, this is the time for them to do it. The Blue Jays (5th in AL East) and Tigers (4th in AL Central) have had wildly disappointing seasons and sold off at the trade deadline. Over their last 10 games, Toronto is 5-5 and the Tigers are 6-4, while the Cubs are playing even .500 ball. Notably, both are sporting sub-.500 records on the road, which should help the Cubs capitalize on a pair of winnable series at Wrigley Field, where they’ve posted a 32-27 record thus far in 2024. The road trip, thankfully, presents even less threatening teams, which should give Craig Counsell’s team a chance to improve on their dismal 27-36 road record. The Marlins and Nationals are the two worst teams in the NL East, and both are sitting well below .500 at their home parks. Both rank toward the bottom of the league in offense - the Nationals have scored 518 runs (tied for 17th in the MLB), the Marlins have scored 450 runs (29th) - and they’re both bottom-10 in team ERA. The Cubs, on the other hand, rank seventh with a 3.75 team ERA, and they’re only three spots behind the Nationals in runs scored. The Pirates will be the most interesting series of the bunch, as the teams will play three games each at PNC Park and the Friendly Confines. The Cubs are just 3-4 against Pittsburgh this year, though they haven’t played against each other since playing seven times in a 10-day stretch in mid-May. The Pirates have some star power, in the form of NL All-Star starter Paul Skenes, All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds and toolsy shortstop Oneil Cruz, though a healthy Cubs roster is still a tier above what the Buccos trot out on the diamond. After this stretch, the Cubs have series with the New York Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies, though those are sandwiched by 10 games against the Colorado Rockies, Athletics, and Nationals. They don’t have to completely close the gap between themselves and the rest of the Wild Card hopefuls over the next three weeks, but time is running out. The more ground they make up now, the better off they’ll be in the final stretch run at the end of September. The odds are slim, but given where things stood a month ago, at least the Cubs have given themselves a fighting chance. There’s more than just pride on the line in this final month and a half in the 2024 season, which is a win in and of itself. This hasn’t been the year fans were hoping for, but the year isn’t over yet. View full article

The Cubs looked like they were back before the All-Star break. Now, not so much. View full video

If the Cubs sell at the deadline, which players are most likely to be shipped out of Chicago? View full video

The Cubs will likely sell, but does that mean they should host a firesale? View full video

After being sidelined by a back injury to start the season, Jameson Taillon had a relatively brilliant first half. If there’s any hope of the Cubs completing the playoff push on which they fell short last year, they’ll need their $68 million pitcher to be even better. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Here’s a fun fact: the Cubs currently have five players on the roster playing on a contract worth more than $60 million. Three of them (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger) make up the starting outfield triumvirate, and another is the seven-year, $177 million deal World Series champion Dansby Swanson signed before the 2023 season. Only one of those contracts is held by a pitcher: starter Jameson Taillon. In the Cubs’ long history, only 10 players (and just four pitchers) have signed a larger contract with the North Siders than Taillon’s four-year, $68 million pact. As the de facto third starter behind Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga (and ahead of Javier Assad and Kyle Hendricks), Taillon represents an important piece of the Cubs’ roster, especially with the young trio of Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and Ben Brown all on the injured list. Taillon was the Cubs’ biggest pitching addition in the 2022-2023 offseason, signing a four-year deal to serve as a mid-rotation arm--and as insurance, in case of Marcus Stroman opting out of his contract and departing in free agency. In retrospect, his first season in a Cubs uniform wasn’t as bad as it often felt. His 4.84 ERA was a pretty big jump from a 4.00 mark for his career, but that was due to an extraordinarily slow start wherein the righty posted a 6.93 ERA in his first 14 appearances. Taillon still managed to throw 154 ⅓ innings last season, which ranked second on the team behind only the staff ace, Steele. Then, Taillon got hurt early in Spring Training, dealing with a back strain (the same injury that knocked Patrick Wisdom out for the same time frame). He was out for a month, returned to pitch in two rehab starts, and then made his season debut in late April. It was a rushed rehab schedule, but the Cubs needed quality innings ASAP and hoped Taillon would be the one to provide them. Well, so far, so good, on that front. Through 16 starts in 2024, Taillon has a 3.10 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 93 innings pitched, averaging a healthy 5.8 innings per start. His 7.3 K/9 is lower than last year’s 8.2 figure, though he’s improved upon his walk rate, allowing nearly one fewer free pass per nine innings compared to 2023. He’s pitching to contact more in 2024 than he did in his debut season with the Cubs, though that’s where the stats begin to betray his results. Jameson Taillon, Cubs Performance Stat 2023 2024 BABIP .292 .281 Left On Base% 64.6% 75.7% Ground Ball % 37.9% 36.6% HR/FB% 13.4% 9.3% 4-Seam Velocity 93.8 MPH 92.7 MPH That LOB% is more in line with his career norms (73.1%), but it’s still a higher-than-average figure that will likely regress at least a little in the second half of this season. His BABIP mark is well below his .293 career average, and will likely regress as well. For Taillon to carry over his effectiveness from the first half, he’ll have to do a better job of limiting baserunners, be it by way of the strikeout or by inducing soft contact. However, that’s going to be difficult to do with a fastball that’s down a tick this season, and which is well below the 95.0-MPH average he had earlier in his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees. In terms of positive regression, his current ground-ball percentage is the second-lowest rate of his career, and should increase if Taillon reemphasizes his sinker (career-low 7.9% usage this season) in the second half. At least, that’s what the Cubs are hoping will happen, since his home run per fly ball rate is by far the best of his career and significantly below his career average of 12.1%. Assuming Taillon isn’t so lucky with fly balls in the dog days of summer, he’ll need to pitch for more ground balls and play into the hands of the Cubs’ gold glove infield defense. None of this is meant to spell doom for the Cubs’ most effective righty starter, but it should be a reminder that even the best part of this roster - the starting rotation - isn’t without flaws. Chicago absolutely needs him to continue nailing down every fifth day if there’s hope for even a semi-competitive August and September. Taillon has the talent to do it, even if he’s fending off a mounting injury history, Father Time, and waning stuff. It’s hard to believe given the size of his contract, but Taillon was the Cubs’ unsung hero during an uneasy first 100 games. If the next 60 or so prove to be more prosperous, Taillon will likely have had a big part in it. View full article

In a disappointing first half for the 2024 Chicago Cubs, their new southpaw stud truly did shine brightly, and his All-Star selection was more than compulsory; it was well-deserved. Image courtesy of © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports To be sure, a few players on the roster have done good work thus far, even as the Cubs have trudged out to a NL Central-worst 47-51 record to start the season. Three everyday hitters (Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ) have an OPS above .800. Tyson Miller has been electric out of the bullpen since coming over via trade in May, and Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon have both pitched to sub-3.30 ERAs in 85 or more innings this season. Any of them would have been worthy All-Star candidates, though the Cubs’ painful-to-watch May and June pretty much sunk the team’s fringe candidates' chances of garnering enough votes to appear at the festivities. The team’s true snub is Justin Steele, who (despite missing a month of action thanks to a hamstring strain suffered on Opening Day) has pitched to a sterling 2.71 ERA in 86 ⅓ innings of work. He’s pitching deep into games (averaging greater than 6.0 innings per start), has the lowest WHIP of everyone in the rotation (0.95), and has the second-most strikeouts on the team (81). If 2023 was his breakout year, he’s corroborated his status as an “ace” this year. While Steele won’t be making his second consecutive appearance at baseball’s mid-season concelebration, another lefty starting pitcher from the Cubs will make his All-Star debut. And it’s not Drew Smyly. Shota Imanaga has been tremendous this season, leading the team in innings (97) and strikeouts (98) while functionally serving as the Robin to Steele’s Batman. Through his first 17 MLB starts, Imanaga has been worth 2.0 WAR, posted a nearly-identical FIP (3.28) and ERA (2.97), and been 42% better than the average pitcher by ERA+. When the Cubs signed Imanaga to a (complicated) four-year, $53 million contract this winter, even the most naïve of optimists could hardly have imagined his Stateside debut going much better. Among National League pitchers, Imanaga ranks 16th in strikeouts, despite finishing the first half with the 30th-most innings. His ERA would rank sixth, if he had a few more innings under his belt to qualify. He’s tied for fifth with 11 quality starts. And, just for good measure, he’s tied with many pitchers for seventh in the NL, with two successful pickoffs. By just about all accounts, Imanaga is a worthy All-Star representative, even if his selection was mandated by the league's rule that every team have a delegate. There are flaws to point out in the 30-year-old’s game. He’s virtually reliant on just two pitches, and he remains as susceptible as expected to the long ball, having given up 12 home runs already this year. Three times this season (all since May 29), Imanaga has given up multiple round-trippers in a single game. Unsurprisingly, those three games all ended in losses, with two accounting for the only two losses on his otherwise pristine 8-2 record. There’s time to sort all that out, though. The Cubs appear ready to make a spirited push ahead of the trade deadline (despite my own willingness to throw in the towel after suffering through two months of unwatchable baseball). To do so, they’ll need to come out of the All-Star break blisteringly hot, like they did a year ago, which will need to be fueled by more of the same dominance from a starting rotation that has done so much heavy lifting already in 2024. What Imanaga’s been doing thus far has been working, and as long as he can continue to mask his deficiencies while the Cubs are in the Wild Card hunt, an overhaul to his repertoire can wait. The next few days are a chance to breathe for the Cubs, who will need to muster all the courage and willpower they can to undo the damage that was done in May and June. However, in between our collective meditation sessions, let’s make sure to properly celebrate 2024 All-Star Shota Imanaga. View full article

“As Cubs fans, it’s easy to fall back into the ‘Lovable Losers’ mantra. It’s a moniker that followed the franchise and its dedicated fanbase for over a century. And since the departure of the curse-buster himself, Theo Epstein, following the pandemic-shortened season in 2020, the Cubs have resumed their place among the hierarchy of baseball’s most prolific sellers.” Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports I wrote that exact introduction nearly a year ago, as the prelude to my first-ever article for North Side Baseball: “The Value of Buying Even When You’re (Probably) Not Going to Win the World Series”. The Cubs would prove me prescient in the days that followed, as the team scooped up Jeimer Candelario and José Cuas ahead of the trade deadline in an attempt to merely get the team playing meaningful games in September again. Though they would end up collapsing and fell short of the postseason, it was still nice to see the Cubs choose a path with conviction. Now, a year later, I call upon the Cubs again to choose a path, though a far less enjoyable one. As I wrote last week, the Cubs’ hesitancy to spend in free agency this offseason has led them down a far less prosperous road this season. Still saddled in last place in the NL Central and double-digit games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the team simply isn’t built to overcome deficits, either in the games they play or in the standings. As the season has worn on, it's become clear that this iteration of the Chicago Cubs won’t be sniffing the postseason. So, then, it’s intuitive that the team spends the remainder of the year doing whatever it can to bolster its chances in the seasons to come. If that means trading away fan favorites and tanking for a higher draft pick, then so be it. We should all be used to it by now. At this point, Cody Bellinger is all but certainly a goner. The reigning NL Comeback Player of the Year may be one of the few consistent bats in Craig Counsell’s lineup, but that also means he’ll be one of the team’s most valuable pieces on the trading block. Though he hasn’t matched last year’s tremendous effort, his .738 OPS and lasting ability to play quality defense at first base and all three outfield spots should make him a seamless fit for any contender needing a left-handed bat. If they can, the Cubs will also look to dump Jameson Taillon and his hefty contract on another squad. The right-handed starter was disastrous at the start of his Cubs’ tenure, but he turned things around in the second half of 2023. This year, he’s pitching like a frontline starter, with a sub-3 ERA in 81 1/3 innings pitched and a FIP of 3.80. If teams are convinced his turnaround is for real, then Taillon and his remaining 2.5 years of control could bring a significant asset back to Chicago. The third-longest tenured player on the roster, Nico Hoerner, is also a name being floated around the rumor mill. He has two and a half years left on the contract extension he signed last spring, at a relative pittance compared to other players of his ilk ($11.5 million salary this year and next, $12 million salary in 2026). Attaching his Gold Glove defense and speed to the offensive player he was last year (.729 OPS) rather than this year (.667 OPS) yields a profile that’s bound to generate a lot of trade interest, especially given that Hoerner just turned 27 in May. Beyond those three, the list of potential Cubs trade candidates is long. If the team is looking for a quick turnaround in 2025, then the team may opt to hold onto their long-term assets, while trying to fetch a price for some usable (if underwhelming) ancillary players like Patrick Wisdom and Héctor Neris. If the team is committing to a longer retooling window, then perhaps Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, or Javier Assad should be on the market. And if the Cubs are ready to take a sledgehammer to the monument of mediocrity they’ve built over the last five years, then everyone not named Justin Steele or Shota Imanaga should probably start buying extra luggage, just in case. Of course, trading any combination of players this year in the name of tanking doesn’t guarantee the Cubs anything, like it did in the past. The new MLB Draft Lottery ensures that even teams that sell out for losses won’t always be rewarded for their “efforts”. The Cleveland Guardians, who finished last season with a middling-but-not-terrible 76-86 record, beat the odds at the 2023 Winter Meetings, claiming the first overall pick in this month’s draft despite having just the ninth-best odds to do so (2.0%). As it stands, there are currently five teams with a worse record than the Chicago Cubs: the Los Angeles Angels, the Oakland Athletics, the Miami Marlins, the Colorado Rockies, and the historically bad Chicago White Sox. The Cubs likely have too much talent and too much of a cushion to fall beneath any of those teams in the standings, but even if they let the Angels usurp them, their odds to “earn” the first overall pick still won’t be favorable. The three worst teams by record share an equal 18.3% chance to get the top slot, followed by the fourth-worst team’s 14.7% odds. Every team after that has odds below 9.0%. Still, it would be a waste to not at least try. There’s no use trying to outrun the treadmill of mediocrity the North Siders find themselves stranded on. They have some valuable players who could bring back a couple of interesting prospects in a trade, and selling at the deadline could give them better odds at winning the draft lottery. At the very least, losing more would insulate them from falling too far in the draft order. To put it plainly, these 2024 Cubs probably aren’t going to snag the first overall draft pick. It’s more likely than not that they’ll be picking outside the top five again. But maybe, with a few small subtractions from the roster, they can back their way into a premier selection. Hell, if Bellinger and Hoerner are shipped out, maybe they can luck their way into their highest selection since taking Kris Bryant No. 2 overall in 2013. Failing that, though, it would just be nice to see the Cubs admit they aren’t good enough, and that they need to do better going forward. On the brink of success lies the precipice of failure. Trying to make this season more than it is could steer the team right off that cliff. They need to rein themselves in and look for another way forward. View full article