If Cubs Want to Win in 2nd Half, Jameson Taillon Must Be Even Better

Here’s a fun fact: the Cubs currently have five players on the roster playing on a contract worth more than $60 million. Three of them (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger) make up the starting outfield triumvirate, and another is the seven-year, $177 million deal World Series champion Dansby Swanson signed before the 2023 season. Only one of those contracts is held by a pitcher: starter Jameson Taillon. In the Cubs’ long history, only 10 players (and just four pitchers) have signed a larger contract with the North Siders than Taillon’s four-year, $68 million pact.

As the de facto third starter behind Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga (and ahead of Javier Assad and Kyle Hendricks), Taillon represents an important piece of the Cubs’ roster, especially with the young trio of Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and Ben Brown all on the injured list. Taillon was the Cubs’ biggest pitching addition in the 2022-2023 offseason, signing a four-year deal to serve as a mid-rotation arm--and as insurance, in case of Marcus Stroman opting out of his contract and departing in free agency.

In retrospect, his first season in a Cubs uniform wasn’t as bad as it often felt. His 4.84 ERA was a pretty big jump from a 4.00 mark for his career, but that was due to an extraordinarily slow start wherein the righty posted a 6.93 ERA in his first 14 appearances. Taillon still managed to throw 154 ⅓ innings last season, which ranked second on the team behind only the staff ace, Steele.

Then, Taillon got hurt early in Spring Training, dealing with a back strain (the same injury that knocked Patrick Wisdom out for the same time frame). He was out for a month, returned to pitch in two rehab starts, and then made his season debut in late April. It was a rushed rehab schedule, but the Cubs needed quality innings ASAP and hoped Taillon would be the one to provide them.

Well, so far, so good, on that front. Through 16 starts in 2024, Taillon has a 3.10 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 93 innings pitched, averaging a healthy 5.8 innings per start. His 7.3 K/9 is lower than last year’s 8.2 figure, though he’s improved upon his walk rate, allowing nearly one fewer free pass per nine innings compared to 2023. He’s pitching to contact more in 2024 than he did in his debut season with the Cubs, though that’s where the stats begin to betray his results.

That LOB% is more in line with his career norms (73.1%), but it’s still a higher-than-average figure that will likely regress at least a little in the second half of this season. His BABIP mark is well below his .293 career average, and will likely regress as well. For Taillon to carry over his effectiveness from the first half, he’ll have to do a better job of limiting baserunners, be it by way of the strikeout or by inducing soft contact. However, that’s going to be difficult to do with a fastball that’s down a tick this season, and which is well below the 95.0-MPH average he had earlier in his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees.

In terms of positive regression, his current ground-ball percentage is the second-lowest rate of his career, and should increase if Taillon reemphasizes his sinker (career-low 7.9% usage this season) in the second half. At least, that’s what the Cubs are hoping will happen, since his home run per fly ball rate is by far the best of his career and significantly below his career average of 12.1%. Assuming Taillon isn’t so lucky with fly balls in the dog days of summer, he’ll need to pitch for more ground balls and play into the hands of the Cubs’ gold glove infield defense.

None of this is meant to spell doom for the Cubs’ most effective righty starter, but it should be a reminder that even the best part of this roster - the starting rotation - isn’t without flaws. Chicago absolutely needs him to continue nailing down every fifth day if there’s hope for even a semi-competitive August and September. Taillon has the talent to do it, even if he’s fending off a mounting injury history, Father Time, and waning stuff.

It’s hard to believe given the size of his contract, but Taillon was the Cubs’ unsung hero during an uneasy first 100 games. If the next 60 or so prove to be more prosperous, Taillon will likely have had a big part in it.