Checking In On Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel

Last month, ahead of the MLB trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs completed a rare major-leaguer for major-leaguer swap with the Tampa Bay Rays, sending Christopher Morel (and prospects Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson) to Florida in exchange for third baseman and former Cubs prospect Isaac Paredes. The trade was met with lukewarm reception, as Morel was a homegrown talent who has shown prodigious power in the past, though he was a non-factor offensively for large swaths of time this season.

Paredes, on the other hand, had a .245/.357/.435 slash line at the time of the deal, earning an All-Star appearance on the back of his power and strong defense at the hot corner. In 2023, he hit 31 homers and garnered some down-ballot MVP votes for his performance in the middle of a talented Tampa Bay lineup, and this year was proving to be more of the same--before he made his way to the Windy City.

From the moment Paredes donned the Cubs’ pinstripes, he’s struggled mightily at the plate. From an aggregate perspective, it’s more of the same from an offense that has frustrated and disappointed fans all season, but it’s even more maddening when looking at the individual. In his first 92 plate appearances with the North Siders, Paredes is batting a paltry .146/.228/.268, and he’s been worth an astounding -0.7 WAR in just 23 games into his Cubs tenure. Perhaps worst of all, his usually steady defense has also been a disaster, as he’s accounted for -0.3 dWAR in just 185 innings at the hot corner thus far.

Manager Craig Counsell spoke out about Paredes’ struggles a few days ago, citing the young third baseman’s work ethic and past success as reasons for believing this funk will end before the season does.

“He just hasn’t got on track offensively, there’s no question about it. He’d tell you the same thing. And we certainly are taking note of it, and he’s working his tail off to fix it," Counsell said. "He’s a quiet, quiet kind of competitor, but he’s a really hard-working kid. And he cares a lot. It’s hard to see it sometimes. And so this is frustrating for him. There’s no question that this hurts him to not be playing well, but he will get there. He will. He will get there. He will get back on track. And we’ve got to help him do it. That’s our job.”

For a guy who really needs some of his big swings to start working out, this is a disastrous early return on the trade for Jed Hoyer. Morel was a popular fixture in the clubhouse for both fans and teammates alike, and Bigge and Johnson have at least some value given their lively arms.

When dealing with the Rays, you have to be sure that you know what you’re doing, lest you get hoodwinked into completing a trade that ends up being completely one-sided. Just ask the Twins. Or the Astros. Or the Pirates. Counsell is right, and Paredes will probably recover from this superslump, which began before the trade. That doesn't offer much solace at the moment, though.

And yet, at least so far, the Rays have been struggling to get any positive value out of their end of the trade too. Morel has been every bit of the disaster that Paredes has been, slashing .188/.286/.325 in 91 plate appearances in Tampa Bay. While his .611 OPS looks a bit more tolerable next to Paredes’s ghastly .496 mark, Morel has already been worth the same -0.3 dWAR in just 108 innings. He’s also doing it at (arguably) a less valuable position, having switched over to second base since arriving in Florida. That probably doesn’t make you feel much better about the swap, but it’s at least nice to know the Cubs weren’t the sole reason for Morel’s season-long funk at the dish.

The Cubs are hovering right around .500 right now, mired in the morass of the NL Central's also-rans. They’re still more than 10 games behind the Brewers, and they remain behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants in the Wild Card race. A turnaround at the plate and in the field from Paredes would go a long way toward helping the team make the sort of playoff push most thought was dead in the water after the Trade Deadline.

In the bigger picture, though, the Cubs have to figure out why their top offensive contributors can’t seem to piece together consistent stretches of quality plate appearances. The nature of a 162-game season means even the best hitters will have hot and cold streaks, but no team can compete when half the lineup is perpetually hip-deep in the mud. Morel’s continued struggles in Tampa Bay notwithstanding, the Cubs have done a painfully poor job of helping their best offensive players develop throughout the course of a season. Seeing a switch flip for Paredes would be nice to see for the sake of relief, but it could also portend a fundamental change that the Cubs have needed for a long while.