Stratos

Lowe would at least be flippable before he's a FA. They could keep him for all of 2025 and trade him next offseason. By 2026 Shaw as well as Triantos should be able to play the infield in the MLB, and there will be a bunch of DH options or guys to play OF and put Seiya at DH like Caissie, Alcantara, Ballestos etc. plus other options in trade or FA. In 2026, unless you can get a clear upgrade like a Soto or Vlad Jr, I like the idea of OF/DH filled by Happ, Seiya, PCA, Alcantara, Caissie. That's 5 guys for 4 spots and 3 of them are dirt cheap and hopefully provide a bunch of surplus. The money saved (e.g. like the 27.5m spent on Bellinger this year) can go towards a Soto/Vlad type or a TORP, a good catcher, or any other high-end player. My ideal would be to sign Soto (obviously), keep everyone mentioned for 2025, trade Happ next offseason or at the 2026 trade deadline (he'll be a FA after 2026). 2026-2027 would be OF/DH of Soto, PCA, Suzuki, Alcantara/Caissie if all works out. In the mix on INF would be Swanson, Paredes, Shaw, Busch, Nico. Nico is FA after 2026 or is traded before that. Cam Smith ETA as a potential regular is probably 2027.

The more I look at Lowe the more I agree and like this idea. If Bellinger opts-out, which is more likely than not, I agree Lowe can be that extra quality bat and probably not to sign a Joc/O'Neill type and spend that money on Lowe. Seiya moves back to RF. As you say, Lowe can DH when Nico comes back. He's about just as good a bat as Joc or O'Neill and provides HR power we need to add to this lineup, even more power than Belli would provide most likely. Until Nico comes back (which may hopefully only be a month or 2 max) we can get by at DH. We can possibly sign a bench OF bat, some cheap bat-first bargain fliers, plus some young guys already on the 40-man like Canario, Mervis, Alcanatara etc can compete in the mix in ST as well. Tauchman is in the mix also, but I'd prefer more power. This still leaves money for everything else we're looking at in FA: catcher upgrade like Jansen, a quality SP, possible late-inning reliever etc. I'm sure Jed will also be looking at the trade market like he did with the Busch trade. I think Jed will be looking to keep our top prospects including Alcantara, Caissie, Shaw, Cam Smith. I think guys like Canario, Triantos, Ballesteros (if they think he can't be catcher) who lack a position here longterm compared to other prospects are expendable in trade, and i'm fine with trading any other prospects including any of the younger ones in the low minors. I'm not sure how they project the SS Rojas and Fernando Cruz but like Jackson Ferris i'm willing to trade them to upgrade the 2025 MLB team.

Agree 100%. And agree that Lowe is the better hitter.

It would depend on how Jed wants to allocate the money. Lowe will cost about 10m next year. If we're conservative and say Nico isn't 100% until e.g. June, are the Cubs going to want to spend 10m on an upgrade for 2-3 months when we have other needs, like catcher, the pen etc? We do have Shaw who could potentially step in for a few months in a pinch and hopefully hold his own, he seems close to ready, and sign a cheap backup. Or they could try for a cheaper option than Lowe/Torres and get creative via trade (probably my preference). Or find the next Tauchman or Wisdom. I'm pretty done with wasting millions on post-prime vets barely above replacement like a Whit Merrifield. Lowe is fine but if Lowe is acquired then someone costing 10m is out. Someone mentioned here like Jansen, Holmes, O'Neil/Joc ., or a downgrade in the SP we can afford etc. Busch is potentially another option with Belli at 1B, though that seems unlikely.

https://ivyleaguecubs.com/2024/10/23/source-cody-bellinger-leaning-towards-opting-out-and-testing-free-agency/

Given how young he is he's basically like a top college pitcher prospect but international. It would make sense he were treated like any other international player. Not sure if that's happening though, besides the posting fee. I think the smaller market teams should get a fair shot at him too.

Per the last paragraph, Is there data to back this up? You're talking overall risk (injury + age) and not just age regression right?

I'd do those, maybe swap Eovaldi with Flaherty. Could platoon Joc with Canario or an acquired RHH bench bat. If Bellinger stays then they may have to go dirt cheap on the rest of the pen and bench.

He was 31 when he signed, and Jed was willing to pay higher AAV to avoid more age regression risk of a longer term deal. The point is that Jed doesn't like signing significant contracts to older players and tries to keep the team as young and as close to peak years as possible and there's great reasons for that. Velo peaks in the early 20's but velo isn't 1:1 with overall performance. Pitchers peak in their late 20's, around 27-29. We should try to stay as young as possible on FA on all sides of the ball. The older a player is north of age 29 the more age regression risk for hitters and pitchers. I already stated i'm not sure i'd sign Fried for 6 years. Yes he could easily regress especially towards the end of the deal, like Lester did. I definitely wouldn't sign Eovaldi for 2-3 years, unless it was a ridiculous value we couldn't refuse compared to everything else. I was out on Verlander, on Scherzer, on the Darvish extension. Yuck. In FA the Cubs should want to stay as young and short-term as possible. In FA it can be hard to they should just do the best they reasonably can and Hoyer does that, at least for the larger contracts. A lot of those deals above were just stupid. Robbie Ray coming off an outlier career year, Darvish signed to a 6 year deal at age 36, Rodon is always injured as is Degrom. Jed clearly tries to stay as young and healthy as possible in FA and his approach on SP is absolutely correct. He shouldn't have even brought back Hendricks and Smyly at those prices. It's pretty unlikely he's going to sign Eovaldi or even Kikuchi unless its a deal he can't refuse, like very short-term or cheap deal per their talent aka the best value.

I think he's a little rich on most of the 4+ year deals.

I think if he signs Eovaldi it's because the years/AAV is undervalued compared to everyone else. This seems to be how he signs the other significant FA's. Maybe i'm wrong but Jed has never signed any FA over age 31 on a multiyear deal over 10m AAV. Smyly and Neris were closest.

Once you hit 30, the older you are the more age regression risk. Same with hitters. In FA most players are at least 29 y/o (besides mainly stars who got to the MLB quicker than most, plus non-tenders, DFA's etc) so in FA and generally the Cubs should try to stay as young as they reasonably can, especially when spending larger sums. Hoyer has definitely been trying to do this on the larger contracts and should do a better job on the smaller ones. I mentioned Fried because based on performance, age, velo trends, and health I think he's the best FA pitcher available. Burnes is up there too though some red flags on the K/9 and velo drop in recent years. There's other solid choices like Flaherty (could be the best option based on the contract).

I don't think they're automatically out on big star FA's or we have zero chance. With Judge and Ohtani they probably didn't have a chance but were at least in on Ohtani. With Harper and Machado it could have been an issue with their personalities or their positions didn't fit on the team at the time. With Yamamoto he got 12/325, which is a pretty crazy deal for a pitcher who had never pitched in the MLB, so they thought Imanaga was a better deal. They were probably in on Turner and the other top SS and thought the Swanson deal was a better one. I think if its the right guy at the right position, right age and the contract isn't stupid they'll pull the trigger. Things need to fall into place for a mega deal. I think they'll be in on Soto especially if Bellinger opts out. I think position is a big thing. With all the OF they have in the majors and minors they can still use the upgrade obviously but can afford to not act desperately. Like everyone I wish we had an owner that was willing to go well over the tax line and spend some stupid money once in a while but we don't.

Yes he could easily get 6 years. Not sure i'm in on that. Anyways, I trust Jed here. He got Imanaga, Taillon, Stroman on good deals at good ages. Maybe he'll make a trade for a SP, who knows.

24 y/o is a different situation. Would you sign Max Fried at age 31 to 5 years or a hypothetical 34 or 35 y/o Fried with the same stats for 3 years? I'm signing the 31 y/o

Ya but Bobby Bonilla still on it tho. 195 not in AAV right?

Older guys seem to get less years but the AAV isn't much or at all affected. Sonny Gray got 3 years at 25m AAV last year. Before that Verlander and Scherzer got 3 yrs and 43m AAV, which at the time I said were dumb high risk contracts. Flaherty seems quality but only has 1 season of recent success so there's some risk there, and Fried will probably get at least 5 years which means he'll be at least 35 when the contract ends so risk there as well. Burnes has had some K/9 reductions and velo drops in recent seasons (though velo ex back up last season but Ks still dropped for some reason) so also some red flags. Will be interesting to see how the Cubs go with SP.

Ah ok, I just used a very rough estimate with about 10-15m for arb and other raises and typical bench/pen small contracts.

This is anecdotal evidence. You can find exceptions to anything. A bunch of people smoke a pack a day and live until they're 100 isn't proof that smoking isn't harmful to health. Guys like Charlie Morton are an extreme case. Pitching injuries are far less predictable than age regression. How many SP in the top 40 of fWAR last year were over age 34? A quick glance I found a few 35 years old and none over 35. You can do the same for top 40 position players. If pitching injuring are common and not very predictable then why give a guy tens of millions and then up the risk factor significantly by signing an old one too? They should stay as young as they reasonably can in the FA market.

I generally wouldn't sign a 34-35 y/o pitcher to a FA market value deal if there were similar options for guys several years younger. The odds they will suddenly regress is higher so I don't see the benefit of playing Russian roulette. Jed was willing to give Stroman a higher AAV with opt-outs over a longer deal based on this fact and it was the right decision, especially given how Stroman fell off this year. The age regression curve isn't much different if at all for pitchers vs hitters.

He signed Stroman in the 2021-22 offseason. He's only 33 and his velo and K/9 is already dropping off significantly. I think the data would support preferring signing a 30 or 31 y/o SP over a 34-35 y/o SP, not much different than a position player.

Do you think we should be signing 34-35 year old SP to not-insignificant deals? I'm generally against it unless the age risk is baked or its some HOF-type stud.

True forgot about that one. Went poorly.

If Belli opt out they have around 70m to spend after arb etc. They can't sign all those guys without trades or going over the tax line.

Clay Holmes would be fantastic, i'm sure he gets paid well though. I like Jansen too, he's probably worth at least 1 win more over Bethancourt. Wouldn't mind signing Jansen and possibly keeping Bethancourt too.