Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Diaz made 21m this year, which is wild. Then again, Jed gave Neris and Fulmer a combined 14m and they're just average relievers.
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Theo also had the advantage of 3 years of tanking that nabbed 2 elite college players and 1 good college player. We don't really know for sure if not tanking in 2022 was a Ricketts or Jed decision, but by money is on Ricketts for wanting fans in the seats to recover losses post-COVID. Other than that I just don't see how Theo made risky moves that Jed hasn't to turn them into a winner. The riskier moves he made were after they became a 95+ win team during their competitive window. Jed's made a bunch of good trades including Busch, Paredes, and the guys acquired to reload the farm. We could argue Jed should have made more prospect swaps like Busch-Ferris to speed up the rebuild since most of the guys he got in the selloff were very young.
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It can't be Rickett's fault when Theo doesn't sign Harper or Machado but Jed's fault when he doesn't sign Seager, Turner etc. Jed has done quite well on longterm deals, and avoided long deals on Stroman, Bellinger which we'll probably all be thankful for. In fact i'd say Jed has near embarrassed most of the rest of the league in the FA longterm realm. Theo made some aggressive trades like Chapman, Quintana because the Cubs were in a strong competitive window. I think the whole "Jed isn't aggressive" is overblown. He was aggressive getting Counsell. He's been aggressive at every trade deadline and brought back 2 of the best position players the last 2 deadlines. He's made a ton of good trades. I'd call him more "prudent".
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I don't see Jed (or Theo) grabbing a top 29 y/o player and signing him for 10 years. It doesn't really make a lot of sense. If they ever sign a mega deal I assume it will be for a young FA like the Soto/Yamamoto/Harper type so they get max prime years. The Heyward signing was also a value signing in a way, they paid for ages 26-33. If he followed a typical regression curve it would have been a solid FA contract especially for an 8-year deal. Above all i think Jed/Theo are data-driven and a deal like Trea Turner/Bogaerts for 10/300 doesn't add up given they were 30 y/o,
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I don't think we know how much its been Tom vs Jed with the longterm contracts. But note that under Ricketts and Theo/Jed the Cubs have NEVER signed a superstar FA deal. The Heyward deal was similar to the Swanson deal and both weren't top WAR or MVP types. Not sure if Theo ever signed a huge deal with the Red Sox.
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Agree with this. If you're Tom you have to be annoyed that the Cubs trade/lose their 4 best players plus Darvish and it takes several years to rebuild and counting but the Brewers lose Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, and Counsell and don't skip a beat.
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If I were Ricketts i'd be not disappointed about missing the playoffs the last couple of years (21-22 Jed had some budget cuts and lost the core so more understandable), but i'd be happy he hasn't wasted a lot of my money on bad longterm deals. Jed could have easily spent to win-now and made himself look good then bounced before big contracts started to age poorly. Would be weird to axe him without at least waiting to see the fruits of most the prospects acquired when he was first was hired. I'd give him 2025 and 26. As i've said I think his biggest flaw is overpaying for below-average players on the shorter deals.
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What's nice this offseason is that pretty much all the guys we're losing to FA (Bellinger pending) were all basically dead weight with little to no real value in 2024. That means we can only add value with that money whatever we spend it on, we can't really do any worse. At worst the player(s) we spend on this offseason with that cash are a bust again like Hendricks, Mancini, Neris, Gomes etc. We were free of the Heyward contract finally last offseason but then spent 16m on Hendricks and 10m on Neris. Treading water. Stroman and Bellinger left for FA and we replaced them with Imanaga and Bellinger, which together was mostly a wash from Stro/Belli 2023. We acquired Busch but brought back Gomes who was negative 1.2 WAR. Added PCA but Morel was a bust. We need to stop treading water and add WAR. All the options I can think of to do this: 1) spend better (more efficiently, especially on smaller contracts), 2) trade assets in the minors for MLB players, 3) raise our total payroll, or 4) trade 1 or more expensive players and replace them with cheaper players (e.g. prospects) and spend that money saved to upgrade another position at a net gain in WAR. Example: trade Bellinger and replace with Caissie/Alcantara/Canario, then use that cash to sign a top SP in FA.
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Now would be a good time to look at how we did with last offseason's moves. We can look at what our needs were, who we acquired, and compare how they performed per their contracts versus the other options Jed had last offseason. Hindsight is 20/20 of course. Per my mediocre memory, our needs were: CF, 1B, 3B, SP, relievers. We also dumped Rossy for Counsell. ----------------------------------- I can start with CF: Options were Bellinger, Bader, Kiermaier, or going with PCA (after a terrible Sept debut) Jed's move: Bellinger, 3 years w/ high AAV with opt outs. Result: Bellinger did fine, WAR was suppressed by injury & playing DH for about 20% of the season. Bader, Kiermaier, and other options did poorly. PCA came up to field and run excellently but overall hit below-average. Transaction grade at the time: B+. Grade post-2024: B-
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It's a deciding factor on whether he's more or less valuable than Murphy.
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Murphy was hurt so his overall stats this year aren't particularly reflective of his ability. The previous 2 seasons he was a 5 WAR catcher. With a backup catcher that's potentially 6 WAR out of the catcher position, which is a massive upgrade over the negative WAR we got this year. I wouldn't bank on that but wouldn't bank on 4-5 WAR out of Swanson again either. Both are the same age and could start regressing at any time. Murphy is about 10m AAV cheaper. Swanson is replaceable with Nico, and Shaw needs a position to play anyways. A 5 WAR catcher isn't replaceable within the org or in FA nor anything within about 3 WAR of that. If a better trade were available for a younger/cheaper catcher i'm sure Jed would take it. Soler could be traded if we wanted. Even if we had to eat some money we still likely save money between the difference in Swanson and Murphy's AAV. We could use Soler's power at DH but not wild about his age and contract.
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So far during his reign Ricketts has supported going over the tax line to try a push a winning group of players over the top, not to try to patch holes in a loser. Would be nice if it were different but can't say I blame him. Jed has more than enough resources to get into the playoffs. The Brewers have the smallest market in the NL if i'm not mistaken and a crummy payroll.
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Don't worry they'll be back under this year.
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Firing Harris was probably needed.
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They need to make the 1st 2 rounds more games. 162 games and then 2 of 3 or 3 of 5 is just nonsensical. If they need to take a week off the regular season or add more rest days during the season just do it.
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I probably do this trade.
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Yeah but if its a money dump they don't have to get anything for Bellinger. They could get some crummy A-ball non-prospect and eat a few million and get some takers. I don't mind if he comes back, but i might prefer a bigger HR bat, and a change to our offensive formula probably wouldn't hurt. Get the best hitter you can and they can DH if need be, put Suzuki in RF if we need to.
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Agree with this. If the Cubs got just average WAR out of 3B and catcher they would have been pushing around 88-89 wins. If the pen and/or offense wasn't terrible for months they'd be over 90 wins. It's obviously really bad for a team when a bad player is getting hundreds of PA's and can negate much of the gains from acquiring a great player. A great player doesn't hurt obviously, but if you're looking to add 5 WAR to the team there's more than 1 way to skin a cat.
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If they want a bat upgrade from Bellinger I think they'd be able to trade him, especially if they ate a few milliojn of salary.
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I'm a bit worried about his history of high BB/9. No data to back this but it seems to me that one of the most volatile stats year to year for relievers (besides ERA of course) is often their BB rate. I'd imagine its not easy to find your consistent release point throwing an inning at a time, and on different mounds. Scott doesn't instill confidence that way, though he's trending better obviously. I like his GB%.
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Matt ShawKevin AlcantaraCam SmithOwen CaissieCade HortonMoises BallesterosJefferson RojasJames TriantosAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsDerniche ValdezLuis VazquezMichael AriasDrew GrayCristian HernandezBJ Murray JrFernando CruzPedro RamirezBrennen DavisPablo Aliendo
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Would you like to try that post again without being weirdly aggressive for no reason? I don't respond to this nonsense.
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I think he probably isn't very good. Too many gopher balls.
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No idea but we have none of them as of today LOL
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I could be wrong about Hodge too, didn't really look at his minor league numbers. He's had some serious walk issues both last year and in AAA this year (small sample). Can't count on him either. So its a JAG-fest in the pen right now.
