Stratos

Ok, wasn't suggesting you guys went there for political reasons, I assumed any org wants to be on platforms where users are.

Interesting. I have no issues with boycotts for whatever reason someone wants, but I also don't think we need more ideological bubbles in our media. Anyways, a discussion for another forum.

I agree i'd probably stick with Bellinger. We'd get dongs and some more walks but lose on everything else. Keeping in mind Schwarber hit leadoff last year and got a ton of PA's, so his WAR is going to be a bit inflated from that. They need to have a stat on FG that shows WAR per 550 PA or something of the sort to make it a rate stat too instead of just cumulative.

Well yes we lose a bit defensively with Seiya for sure. We're gaining on offense (OBP, SLG and HR). They're gaining on defense, speed, contact, versatility. Whether the Phills would do it is questionable, but I think it's a pretty fair trade. Schwarber has a year left on his deal. The upside on Bellinger is higher IMO. If he's healthy all year, plays mostly CF, and doesn't DH I think he's a 3+ WAR player and probably better than say Happ.

What do you guys think of this trade proposal?: Bellinger for Kyle Schwarber. Maybe throw in some cash. We get a DH that hits lots of HR and Seiya slides back to RF. Phils get a CF and improved OF defense and backup at 1B. We do lose a good backup at CF and 1B. Bellinger is a good all- around player in every facet but more HR would be nice. Might be more of a wash though.

Cubs are mid-tier.

Pivetta has always given up lots of HR though.

Lol. Well true but I also think we need to do a bit better than him.

What is Bluesky? Is this an anti-Elon alternative to Twitter?

I agree. Getting a good young catcher will be tough, unless there's a team has more than 2. If I had 2 good ones and nobody good in the MLB I'd want to keep both.

I think most all of it is speculative. He's just giving his analysis and guesses of where players will go and what teams might do based on needs etc. That's fine but is probably more based on "feels" and what they've done the last few offseasons more than anything. I think the Cubs have a chance to land a one of the upper tier SP or the better mid-tier guys. If we assume Jed is about value, paying 28m AAV for one of these aces who will typically only put up around 3.5 WAR with the higher injury risk for pitchers, it seems to me Jed would probably ideally prefer to put that kind of AAV on a bat, so one of the better mid-tier SP at a good price could be more up their alley. But beyond Soto I don't see much 20m+ AAV position player happening this winter in FA. Then again, Stroman was a 3.5 WAR guy. So I don't know what they'd do. Theo's philosophy seemed to be to draft position guys (typically college) in the high rounds and sign or trade for SP because of the young SP injury risk. Jed's philosophy seems to be to act on maximizing value for dollar and remain flexible and sign a guy that you like who has the best contract. I don't think they often "target" FA's unless there's no other comparable good options, e.g. Bellinger as CF the last 2 offseasons .

I'd go Kikuchi. Pivetta just isn't good enough IMO.

Seems like a pretty fair trade. I agree though that CF isn't a problem for them, at least not last year. There's other teams that could want Bellinger. Blue Jays, Giants, maybe Mets especially if they don't land Soto.

Yeah if I were him my priority would be an environment to perform the best I could to get me to free agency and hit the jackpot. Location and a winning team would be secondary. Cubs have a real shot but a team like the Dodgers are no slouch either as an org, and Yamamoto and Ohtani can help recruit. Can help that the Dodgers have 2 other Japanese pitchers in the rotation (whenever Ohtani gets throwing again)

One advantage we have is our defense will make his numbers look better. At least with the current group of players.

If it bothers him then he should field better.

Jed will sign the best value for dollar SP most likely, like every year. We need Ricketts to up the total payroll.

Of Happ, Suzuki, and Hoerner i'd trade at least 2 of them. Not this offseason and maybe not even next offseason, but before they become FA. Treat them like we treated Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo. Thank them for their most productive years and move on. I don't want post-prime Happ, Suzuki, or Nico at FA or near-FA prices thus paying even more for the same players who will likely decline in production, I would much rather find the next Happ and Nico in our system (or something close to it) and pay them pre-FA salaries, and maybe sign the next Suzuki as a FA, and put that money saved elsewhere (extensions or FA). They're not going to be a 70 win team if we're saving lots of money on salary to spend elsewhere on players who are just as good or better than late prime or post-prime Happ/Suzuki/Hoerner. Yes we can trade some prospects, we have lots of them. Trading one of Caissie/Alcantara may be fine too depending on the return, since a quality corner FA isn't hard to find in FA.

How did they know Happ was going to be a good player when he was in AAA? How did they know Suzuki or Imanaga were going to be good players when they were in Japan? If the Cubs think a prospect is talented and has a good chance to succeed in the MLB then take a risk and play them. They're taking a risk on PCA right now. They took a risk on Busch and Amaya. The Cubs went with good young talent like Baez, Contreras, Russell, Hendricks etc, with no guarantees they'd be good, added a few good trades and then went into FA and got good players like Zobrist, Lester, Fowler, Heyward, Lackey etc and won a WS. That's not what a small market team does. If the Cubs aren't going to spend 280m on payroll then they need some surplus via some good cheap talent to afford guys who are better than Taillon, Hendricks, Barnhart etc No you keep good young players until just before they hit FA or extend them if you can. Happ and Suzuki aren't going to sign 1 or 2 year extensions, they'd rather hit FA because they'll want more years. You're also paying for past performance with a new Happ/Suzuki extension since they're in their primes now but they'll be 32 when a new extension is signed and will probably want FA-type deals in the 3-4 year range. Too old IMO. If the Cubs want to trade one of Caissie or Alcantara for a guy like Crochet (who btw has had only 1 good full season as a SP and has been seriously hurt) that's fine. Emptying the farm for 1 year of Vladdy or Tucker isn't wise IMO and neither is extending Happ or Suzuki based on what they'll want at that age. I'd much rather take a risk on a young prospect than an expensive older player contract.

I think they should trade Happ and Suzuki before they become FA and replace them with one or both of Alcantara/Caissie or maybe another FA in his prime or via trade. I'd want as many players on this team to be under age 33 as possible. Plus its a chance to add surplus via pre-arb players and reload the farm. The Happ and Suzuki contracts right now are perfect, we get good players through their prime years and get to trade them for value at their peak before they age regress. If we had a quality player in LF or RF right now making pre-arb or even arb money we could afford e.g. Blake Snell and Max Fried in the rotation instead of Blake Snell and Taillon. If we had 3 pre-arb players in the OF and they were good (PCA, Alcantara, Cassie) we could afford the above starters and a lights-out bullpen, or any other upgrades we wanted. If Caissie or Alcantara don't work out then you just sign another FA OF (a good corner OF is virtually always available in FA) and you still have a healthy farm from trading Suzuki and/or Happ. If Jed fundamentally doesn't like something about Caissie or Alcantara that may prevent them from succeeding in the MLB then sure trade them.

Morosi literally speculates on names all the time. He 100% throws names out there and people run with it. He did it at the trade deadline last year.

Well Morosi does this stuff all the time and just drops names he speculated on, that's why I say this. But are it could be based on actual interest, though he'd probably mention a team if he knew. Who knows

Cubs apparently not showing interest in Soto so far. Would jive with Jeds comment on MLB Network that pitching has been the bulk on his outreach efforts so far. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/rays-among-teams-to-have-reached-out-to-soto.html

I think Morosi just dropped a random name per usual and is speculating.

Jed isn't going to empty out the farm for Lowe and Crochet. Maybe 1 player like that but not 2.