Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Note that Shaw can play some 2b if Nico isn't 100% by OD. Same at SS for Swanson. Bregman might be adding anywhere from 1 to 2 WAR to the team if we assume a solid but not amazing year for Shaw and Shaw adding depth at 2B, SS, and 3B. Could be more WAR he adds if there's injuries. A couple months in AAA throughout the year wouldn't kill Shaw either, especially working on the glove at 3b and 2b.
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I think going from 40 IP to 160 still building back from TJS is unlikely for him. My impression is most orgs still don't like huge increases in IP year to year due to injury risk. If he triples his innings to 120 i think that's an upper range spot for him. Could make 30 starts but on a lower than average pitch count.
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If Triantos can hit like Nico with a little more power I guess there's a chance for him to be something like a 110 wRC+ guy. If even half of his SBs translate to the MLB, say 15-20 per year then he adds some value as well. Jury still out on the glove is guess. Maybe he can be a 2.5 WAR guy if things go well?
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2 days old but:
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He could get a call-up this season. I'm very lukewarm on him as a prospect. The only plus tools he has are the bat-to-ball skills and the arm, and seems to have below average power. He could end up being an average MLB player or Albert Almora without the glove, who knows. The SB's he's had are interesting though.
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Small sample for Boyd last year though. Flaherty has a far larger track record of being very good when healthy, I think he has the higher upside but he's getting paid for that too. I agree the contracts do matter and Boyd has the better one. I'd be happy if Boyd throws 110 IP and has a sub-4 ERA. We know Boyd's a flyball pitcher and so will give up his share of HR, for a SP he's above average to well-above average in K/9 the last 2 seasons and historically, and his BB/9 has been very good the last 2 years and historically, That should hopefully equate to an above-average ERA and xFIP, even though it hasn't for his career besides last year.
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I think given how quickly they signed Boyd they likely targeted him because they see things in him they really like. They're pretty good at that. They hit on Imanaga. I don't have any data but guys after TJS are usually pretty good on arm health over the next several seasons aren't they? Big thing is building back the IP on him i guess.
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You're forgetting Brown. If he's healthy he has the potential to be a TORP eventually. I think he probably has the best stuff on the team among the SP, and Hodge might be the only guy on the roster to compare. Would be nice to have another solid and established SP. Given Brown/Assad/Wicks plus Horton maybe they're a little hesitant to sign another SP longterm and block their path. I think Boyd is a good fit, they have lots of guys already to find innings. I kinda like Assad, he doesn't have the out-pitch but has a good sinker and good competitive presence on the mound and is versatile. Wicks will go as far as his fastball i wager.
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Yes teams obviously have fears over his durability, and aren't going to give him a longterm deal that he wants based only on how he pitched last year. I think he got the short term high AAV deal with opt-out he was likely looking for given his market and with a team he had great success with last year. Rea for 5m is ok for depth given we lost Wesneski/Smyly. From a pitching standpoint the Cubs seem to prefer to buy low-ish on guys with a profile they see with potential for improvements and bet on their MLB pitching infrastructure get more out of them. I also think they see pitching as more risky than hitters due to higher rate of injury as well (if your 30m AAV SP needs TJS you've just lost a 3-4 WAR player for at least 2 years, which is enough to cost you a playoff spot or 2). Both those factors combined, Hoyer tends not to make huge bets using huge assets (prospects for trade, or money) on elite pitchers at the top of their game. That's why I have doubts they would fork over big prospects, especially position players, for 1 year of Cease/King etc. They seem more willing to spend more resources on position players since their abilities are far more stable and much less able to be improved, plus are less injury risk.
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Solid chance he does better in 2025, but predicting the future is impossible.
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The Boyd vs Flaherty contracts aren't very comparable. If both Boyd and Flaherty are good in 2025 Boyd gets up to 15m with incentives for 2025 and we have him for 2026 at the same price while Flaherty would get 25m in 2025 and will opt out. If they both suck and get hurt this year Flaherty gets 2/35m and Boyd gets 2/29m. If Flaherty sucks and makes 15 starts in 2025 he gets 2/45 (and he sucked in 2023 over 27 starts). Bottom line: If Boyd is good this is a much better deal for the Cubs than Flaherty's, and if Boyd sucks its still a better deal than if Flaherty sucks.
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More details on Flaherty's deal, not as cozy as it originally seemed: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/tigers-sign-jack-flaherty.html So its kinda like a Imanaga-lite deal that's hedged for both sides, rewards Flaherty if he's good/healthy with the opt-out but if he gets hurt he comes in cheaper at 10m for 2026. Tigers get the benefit of a short-term deal plus a lot of hedge for 2026 if he misses significant time this year. It's actually a pretty fair deal. If he's healthy but just straight-up sucks in 2025 (unlikely) he gets 2/45 guaranteed. Gets to go back to Detroit where he was excellent last year.
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I wonder if Jed's holding out for Bregman if he's passing that up? I can't see Jed passing up that Flaherty contract, it just doesn't make sense. Maybe Flaherty liked Detroit because he pitched really well there? Edit: isn't Comerica still a pitchers park?
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The heck we aren't in on that?? He had 3 WAR last year. Boyd was 2/29 and he's 34 y/o. Boyd could be solid but we could use Flaherty, pitched like an ace last year and early in his career and just turned 29.
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Because we have an excellent pitching development system. Tyler Zombro said pitchers want to sign here and that even receiving the Cubs development plan they create for pitchers once they sign has a lot of value to them. Even if they get cut they still have an industry-leading plan given to them on how to improve.
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The Athletic: Cubs looking to be "Opportunistic"
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Maybe they just prefer paying players in their primes as opposed to huge money for post-prime players? -
The Athletic: Cubs looking to be "Opportunistic"
Stratos replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think Tom's just cheap with payroll now and nothing will change that besides losing butts in the seats and ratings, merch etc. The Cubs as a business are emotionally dead inside and behave like a faceless corporation entirely interested in maximizing the bottom line. They behaved the same before the last CBA. -
The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Trading the org's 3 best 3B's in one offseason and leaving a giant hole isn't going to happen. -
Hoyer's all about value for money so my assumption is that Hoyer takes whatever option is the best value for the money that maximizes the wins added to the roster for the payroll he has left. We have no urgent needs on the roster, but several places where we can upgrade, so Hoyer can afford to just take the best deal(s) that come across his table that he finds at SP, relief, 3B, bench etc via FA or trade.
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Ricketts, Crane Kenney exploring filling the Wrigley batter's eye with green bleachers and requiring people to wear green outfits head to toe. I just made this up but you know he'd do it.
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Cubs are the 3rd best team in the MLB by those projections. Nice. They aren't even done spending.
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Stanek seems average to below average and is projected as such for 2025. Paying 5m for that, no thanks.
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Boras client rumors are unreliable at best. I could see Cubs being in a short-term deal but I don't see it happening. Bregman doesn't have anything to prove, i suspect he'll seen a longterm deal, 5 years or whatever.
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Cubs "Aren't Done" Looking for Relief Arms
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yates was signed for 13m, and if he pitches 55 games its bumped to 14m. Makes sense now why they made the Pressly trade. I guess maybe they'll just wait out the other guys until the Cubs get their price. -
Been thinking about Justin Turner and possibly warming more to the idea. If Shaw doesn't work out or get hurt I wonder if he could fill in at 3B. Not ideal but just wondering.
