Stratos

Great point. It also would seem cheaper than trading for a SP at the deadline but would effectively be the same.

Good observation. It could be legit but "teams interested in him as a starter" could be his agent blowing smoke to try to increase leverage during a negotiation. I like him in the short term but hesitant to go over 2 years. Velo started dropping last year which makes sense with the age so he seems like a guy starting to trend down. K rate has already dropped significantly from a few years ago. His walk rate is below average so if the K/9 ever drops squarely into the 9's he could be just an average to above-average reliever. Edit: looks like the Tigers have been connected as interested in him being a starter. Such a specific reference seems less likely to be smoke.

They must really like his improvements. Read its the first multi-year reliever contract since Kimbrel, which doesn't seem right but maybe is. Hopefully this new strategy works.

Scared of the walks he's had in seasons previous. Could be over that though. I don't think he's a TOR but could be solid.

Hard to succeed if your fastball isn't good and gets hammered. A SP can do fine with a solid FB and a good out-pitch.

Good post. I agree, looks like they were spanking the FB. The whiffs/K's point to the curve working well (43% whiffs on it). Agree looks like they need to work on the FB. Good velo but we know hitters can hit velo if the pitch itself doesn't have a good profile. Velo just makes everything play up. A poor fastball profile played up with good velo doesn't necessarily mean a good FB. If he can improve the FB (like you said maybe add some cut or more run) and keep working on the 3rd pitch he could be useful as a SP. He's got some good tools.

I don't cherry-pick data to deceive people in order to make myself look correct, that's a tactic that's manipulative and bad faith, the truth is more important than my or anyone else's egos. I didn't check how he performed in any other starts with the velo so no I didn't cherry-pick based on velo. The reason I chose San Diego, Seattle, and Atlanta to compare is because they're in warmer climates, as you said maybe the velo was impacted by April Chicago weather (which yes I agree could definitely happen). All other early 2024 starts are in cold climates. I just checked his 2nd 2025 start in Arizona at the end of March (again, not a cold climate). He was up about 1 mph from the San Diego start a couple weeks later, but still down a tick from the Atlanta/San Diego warm climate starts the year prior. Early-season warm weather starts in 2024 having among the best velo starts of his career as you mentioned make sense because 1. he was the youngest at this point, 2. wasn't pitching in cold weather, 3. early-in-his-MLB-career adrenaline could also have been a factor. Also, I didn't say "I don't think the injury impacted his velocity", I said i'm not convinced it did. Meaning it's possible it had an impact , it's a causation/correlation unknown like Hottovy said. Hottovy also thinks it likely did, so ok that's good. But my point is that it was also down before the injury compared to a year earlier, so age is probably a factor there. It could be age+injury? Looking again, the article said his velo dipped in June to Aug after he came back then went up Sept-Oct so then maybe it did impact the velo. But Hottovy also said they were doing things to improve the velo post-injury that may have impacted his mechanics, so who the heck knows. Anyways, not trying to be an arse, i'm glad they're aware and working on all these things to get him back to where he was before.

I checked bb Savant. In mid-April 2025 he had a start in SD where he dipped down to 89 mph and sat around 90-91. To compare, in 2024 he had a start in mid-April in Seattle and sat 92-93. Thought since it was an early MLB start for him in 2024 that adrenaline might be a factor, so checked a start a month later in ATL and he was sitting the same. The mechanics/slot might be linked to the injury and/or layoff but i'm not convinced the velo is. His groundball% was even worse before the injury than after. Hoping they can improve that. Problem with both Shota and Taillon is that they'll both be a year older so both could easily decline further from 2025. It's possible either start the year with more velo dips, which would be concerning. Overall I could see Shota improving on some things but see both he and Taillon as trending downward based on age. Hoping it doesn't affect things too much this year for them.

Maton is a good reliever. Interested to see the AAV. He probably comes in lower on AAV than Kittredge so that's a plus, and he's a few years younger.

I don't think so. I just think they care a lot more about getting outs than they do specifically about velocity. There's a lot of ways pitchers can get outs and velocity is just one facet, which isn't always necessary. Velocity makes everything else play up.

Wouldn't mind bringing back Castro but I'd think he wants more playing time. Alcantara is also in the convo in the OF, he can play CF and can run and field. He also smoked LHP in AAA last year. But not ideal for a rookie as a bat off the bench only playing vs LHP. I think Mo and Caissie will be in competition of Tucker's spot (LHB vs RHP at DH or RF). They'll need a RHB to platoon vs LHP in that spot. They probably sign someone for that, like a Refsnyder, but other RHB like Alcantara and Long could also be in the mix, especially if there's an injury.

I personally wouldn't put Imai amongst those pitchers. He seems like an above-average SP but not a TOR, and there's no certainly he's even above-average. I'm hoping the Cubs do better. They'd likely get a solid deal on Imai because of the unknowns involved, similar to Shota and Seiya, but they need to go out and get quality not a dice-roll. Him being just "average" would leave them with about an average rotation again, which isn't acceptable for a contending top-3 market team.

A lot of Cease's value comes from the durability, especially in an age where pitchers are often going down with injuries and TJS. Doesn't look to have missed a start in the last 5 seasons. He's been clearly above-average in the quality of innings he's thrown (xERA, xFIP etc), but not perfect. Elite K/9 but below-average BB/9 and GB%. The walks and GB% are the main differences between him and elite SP like Skubal and Yamamoto. Framber Valdez has pitched similarly to Cease but has done it with about average K/9 and BB/9 but elite GB%.

Hopefully Shota has a decent year. Unless he was tipping I don't really like the signing.

I didn't say it was a bad deal. I said in a bubble I'd be ok with it.

ERA is irrelevant in evaluating Shota because he had the best defense in the MLB behind him and was an extreme flyball pitcher in a park where the wind blew in a lot (which could change next year). His xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all below average. But fair enough, he wasn't "bad" this year so much as "not good" or "below-average". He put up a 0.9 fWAR. I can't speak to the contact #'s regression, but he also had a .219 BABIP which is also likely to regress towards the mean, especially if you don't factor the defense behind him. His fastball got pummeled. A fastball that generated high exit velos and barrel rates, a league-worst GB%, and had a xSLG of .580 and high xwoba isn't a plus pitch, or even an average pitch. If he's forced to continue to pitch up in the zone because of his FB shape it's going to keep getting barreled and slugged. It's possible, but also just as likely it dropped due to more age regression. I don't think paying 22m for 2.3 WAR is a particularly good deal, even on a 1-yr. In fact under those projections (which seem sensible) he'd be among the team leaders in most inefficient contract in WAR per million spent. If we didn't already have SP like Taillon, Rea, Assad, Brown etc i'd be ok with the 1/22m. But at this point we need to do better with our SP. One of our SP will inevitably get hurt so Rea/Assad will likely get plenty of starts and I don't really want a rotation with Taillon/Shota/Rea (or Assad) in it again. Cubs rotation ranked 17th this year according to Fangraphs, which isn't nearly good enough. Eating 22m of our "not-big-market" budget for an average SP on a team with a bunch of average SP isn't good IMO. Put that money towards an above-average pitcher/player, maybe even a very good one.

OK thanks, then the only reason they might care is based on the unknown of a new CBA re: salary caps, taxes etc. This really should even affect them

I dunno. Pitchers will go through hot and cold periods like hitters do, but they're both below average SP at this point and not significantly different than Colin Rea. Shota was bad last year, is that worth 22m? Major league worst GB% and below average K/9 is a recipe for giving up a lot of HR. He had significant declines on both of those stats His fastball was terrible, around a .580 xSLG on it. He was touching 89 mph at times. Unless they think they can improve the K/9 and/or GB% he's going to suck next year too. It's just as likely the velo drops even more due to aging unless they put him on a velo program and he's wasn't on one before. Any pitcher throwing 91mph living up in the zone with a fb even with tons of carry like his isn't going to get a lot of whiffs, they're going to get a lot of flyballs and HR. His fb isn't fooling anyone so he might want to try keeping the fb down in the zone a lot more despite the carry on it.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if that turns out to be the case. Ricketts is cheap as heck so paying 70m to players for nothing if there's a work stoppage for 2 months of the season next year is probably something he wants to avoid. Shota on 1 yr would be good for them for that reason. Could be a weird offseason. Could be a lot of 1 year deals made among many teams.

I can see the Cubs signing 2 more SP. If Shota rejects the QO it will likely be a Soroka low-cost upside type plus an established quality SP.

This won't sound exciting but I think they do exactly what they did last offseason besides a big trade. That means they go after a good SP (even if Shota accepts the QO), probably targeting higher than a Boyd type. They sign some veteran setup arms and a bunch of bargain binners while kicking tires to get a good deal on a FA late inning closer type if possible. Sign a Goldschmidt type or 1b/3b guy (they need a RHB 1B and a backup for Shaw). Then stay open to snipe a good player whose market falls through like they tried with Bregman. I think some of the extra money might also go towards trying to get some extentions done like PCA and Busch. I don't expect any major trades. I think they'd like to keep everyone who was in Iowa this past season. They need that depth for injuries and future vacancies. They can fill SP needs in FA easily.

I think he can be the 6th starter with Assad and stay in the pen otherwise as a longman. He started in the pen last year but was needed when Steele went down along with Assad. It's possible they think they can do better for a 6th man but it's still a good deal.

Can't see them not picking up the option

Maybe they feel overall spending will be down this offseason because of the looming CBA and potential work stoppage? And they'll try again after the CBA is signed. Could be a lot if 1 year deals this winter. It might get weird.

They don't care as long as people keep buying what they're selling. We're loyal fans and have a beautiful ballpark. This is the real Cubs curse.