Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Man he looks like he swings a heavy piece of lumber.
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I never heard that, is it true he was injured both those years, or you just guessing? That would change things. Apparently his MRI was clean when coming back in 2023 so that's at least good news.
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Kyle is kind of a BORP at this point. 4.77 ERA in 2021, 4.80 ERA in 2022, then injured. More likely than not he doesn't repeat what he did last year and could easily get hurt again. Good for depth but I hope they don't overspend.
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I'd also like to see Mervis start the year on the team. I get why they didn't last year, they waited for him to get going in mid-season form and he only had one successful pro season under his belt at the time. I'd like to see him get a decent # of PA's in 2023 unless he's horrid or they find someone better. If he can manage 80-100 rWC+ just let him play. They still need a backup plan and a RHB 1B to possibly platoon vs LHP. Wisdom might fit, or someone else, i'm done with Wisdom at 3B. Looks like he might get about 2.5 mil in arbitration this winter. Non-tender territory.
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Breslow confirmed my point at 14:35 in that interview that things like velo and grips/stuff are much easier to improve/teach than command. Thanks for posting.
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I would hope they care most about just getting outs no matter how its done. There's more than one way to get outs. Velo is a bit overrated because things like command, changing speeds, deception, movement are all used to get hitters out, and you need at least 2 or 3 of those to be an effective pitcher and velo doesn't need to be one of them, as guys like Maddux, Steele, Stroman and many others prove. I think they sometimes try to target pitchers with attributes that aren't as teachable, like command, velo, and certain types of deception (ie: sidearm throwers) and try to develop their pitch grips/shapes to get more effectiveness out of them. This was probably the plan with Taillon.
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If the Cubs spent what the Phillies spent this year they could have been just as good as them., that I agree They don't have to go out and sign stars to bad contracts to be good though.
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Dombrowski also signed the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2014. In a few years the Phillies are going to start to suck and be hobbled with the Harper and Turner contracts as those guys (plus Realmuto, Castellanos etc) get into their mid 30s and decline. All that to pay for a peak 90 win team. Would be nice if the Cubs spent more, but would rather the Cubs have a more sustainable plan and keep signing good players through their peak years.
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I agree they should have added more arms, and they also pitched Adbert/Leiter/Merryweather to death from June through August due to the lack of depth and I think those guys just wore down, maybe even Fulmer too. They just didn't have enough depth. They need to anticipate injuries will happen through the year and have to the depth to get through it. I think they did have a bit more bad luck than average with so many guys injured or regress early in the year.
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Interesting bat, he would definitely need to be able to play an adequate 1B though especially if they don't resign Bellinger. I can see them signing some kind of bench RHB at 1B again.
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Cubs can acquire a good SP in FA this offseason if they want. If they trade prospects it would make sense to acquire someone that's hard or impossible to get in FA this winter. e.g. Sean Murphy would have been a good grab last offseason. Glasnow isn't even worth the money, Tampa would have to eat some. Given the deal Soto rejected from the Nationals (about 15/450) I can't see him extending before entering FA and therefore not worth trading for either.
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I think Morel has potential in the field and the plate. Hoyer has said he has good hands. He seems better on the INF, probably ideally a middle INF it seems, but when I went to a series late last year he was working on extra groundballs before every game when most of the other guys were in the dugout. He obviously needs work at 3B since last year and i'm sure he got a ton of work in throughout this season. The Cubs seemed to prioritize defense at 3B this past season, Madrigal provided value there and was hitting well for a while. I'm sure he'll work on it during the winter, maybe even a bit of winter ball at 3B. He deserves another shot. He got moved around a lot in the minors and last year in the MLB at different positions, he hasn't had a chance to really work and settle anywhere. He's a great athlete, I think he has a real shot to be at least average defensively on the INF if they let him play and get better.
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Selling off Stroman and Taillon would be buying high and selling low and not a good strategy. Taillon will likely return to being the ~4.00 ERA pitcher he's been like he showed in the 2nd half (3.70 ERA), and Stroman had a specular 1st half.
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Well I never said the tax line is a hard limit or that they won't spend over the line, I'm just stating the fact that they don't have a lot of room under the line. They will spend several million on some vet relievers, they always do and they need them badly, they can't just ignore a pen that was their #1 weakness this past season. It also seems likely Hendricks comes back, though they probably negotiate a deal cheaper than his team option. They're going to have a lot more cheap surplus in the coming years with all the prospects starting to come up, so going over the tax line in 2024 and then dropping back down for to brief reset in a year or 2 seems like a logical thing to do for a team that doesn't want to consistently stay above the line. They didn't have to go over the line in 2016 because of all the cheap talent.
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If Stroman and Hendricks and Gomes come back they probably won't even be able to afford Bellinger without going over the tax line. They'll have 29m to spend, they'll keep at least 5m under the line if they want to stay under. So 24m to spend, and they still will add a couple of FA pen arms for around 7-8 million total. So we're talking 17m to spend. I really hope Jed is done with signing these borderline replacement FA's to multimillion contracts. Just get the Wisdom's, Tauchman's, Mastobuoni's, Hosmer's instead for dirt cheap.
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I agree with payroll estimates in the OP, similar to my estimates from data from sportac & BR. If I were to bet I'd say they stay under the tax with year, but hopefully i'm wrong. It's possible they go over this year and go slightly under next year to reset since they have a lot of money off the books next year. Bellinger + Yamamoto + some pen guys would be amazing for this winter, but wishful thinking I guess. A bit more do-able if they don't bring back Hendricks, but I think they will. Steele, Yamamoto, Horton, Taillon, Wicks/Brown would be a very nice rotation for 2025.
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I agree about extra-innings games, but Ross can't be blamed for a pen that lacked depth after the 3 late-inning guys that only solidified their roles in June, and a pen that was unable to hold close leads in 3 out of the 6 months of the year. Some of that is injuries, but a lot of that is on Hoyer who failed to bring in enough quality late-inning pen arm help in the offseason and at the deadline. Jose Cuas is fine but Cuas alone doesn't cut it. Fulmer and Boxberger in the offseason doesn't cut it on a roster that didn't even have a closer. One thing I'm worried about is the future health of Steele, Leiter, Alzolay next year. who were pushed hard because of the lack of quality pitching depth on this team. Again, not exactly all Ross' fault given what Hoyer gave him, plus injuries. Potentially sacrificing 2024 for 2023 is a bad idea. IMO Ross is fine, and can't be compared yet to Maddon, who had 2 late-season collapses in a row and created a team that was poorly disciplined and unaccountable, not to mention terrible at baserunning. 2023 was a result of a lack of pitching talent and some inexplicably poor defense and clutch hitting down the stretch, which is mainly on the players.
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I'd probably target Yamamoto and Bellinger first. Alonso would be down a notch since he'd cost prospects and the other 2 don't cost any comp picks. Bellinger also covers 2 potential holes in CF/1B as insurance in 2023 and longterm, and can slide to corner OF in future years also if needed e.g. an injury or PCA is able to hold down CF. PCA's defense and speed will make him an MLB regular anyways. I highly doubt they'd add 2 significant contracts this offseason unless Stroman opts out. i'm fine if Stroman stays for 2024.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?
Stratos replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What pit I can't imagine a guy who has never pitched in the MLB would get anything close to 40m AAV. His stats and age seem to compare to Masahiro Tanaka. He was a good MLB pitcher but not 40m AAV good. -
I think the current format is probably the best ever.
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2 losses and you're out after 162 games is crazy. It should be a best out of 5 series.
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Just saw that on Baseball Savant that PCA has 98th percentile sprint speed. Geez. Jared Young is also the fastest 1B in the MLB. He's as fast as Nico.
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Forgot about that one. Makes sense. Hard to see him as just a DH, he's very athletic.
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Soto is an excellent hitter but I think as a player he's a bit overrated because he's a bad fielder and is going to get even worse as he ages. There's no difference between giving up a hit with poor defense vs getting a hit. He's a 5-6 WAR player which makes him about as valuable as Swanson, though much younger obviously. Would be nice to acquire him.
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I watched Jed Hoyer's entire end of season press conference and didn't really learn anything. Reporters tried to get him to say whether they'd go over the lux tax threshold next year or about resigning Cody and he obviously wouldn't bite. He was supportive of Ross but didn't say if he'd be back or not. They decide on any coaching staff changes within a week or 2. IMO Ross will be back.
