SOFNR

We'll see what the money is. I can't imagine it's anything that's going to stop them from adding another starting pitcher and a backend bullpen piece. Hes prolly a fine mid relief lefty. 3.80 xFIP 10.44 K/9 in the 2nd half last year. If they're gonna go all reclamation pickups again I'll be pissed but it's Dec 31st.

Alright, imagine the Chicago Cubs are like a big team of superheroes trying to win a big race. In 2025, they’ve got a mix of new heroes and some older ones. The old heroes have done cool stuff before, but they’re getting a little bit slower. The new heroes, though, are really fast and trying to help the team win the race. Now, when we look at the Cubs, their pitching (the players who throw the ball) is kind of like their shield. Some of them are really strong and can stop the other team from scoring, but sometimes they get tired or make mistakes, and that’s a problem. They need to stay strong the whole race if they want to win. Then, there’s their hitting (the players who hit the ball). Some of their hitters are great, like a superhero with a super strong bat. But sometimes, the bat doesn’t hit the ball as much as it should, so they don’t score enough runs. It's like trying to win the race but not getting enough speed boosts. The team also has some really good players, like Nico Hoerner, who's super fast and helps in both hitting and fielding, but if everyone else doesn’t step up, it’s like having a fast car but no one else is helping push it. There are some young players who could be the future stars, but they’re still learning to be the best. In short, the Cubs in 2025 have a lot of promise, but they need to figure out how to get their heroes working together better, especially the pitching and hitting. If they can do that, they’ll be a lot tougher to beat and might even make it to the big game at the end of the season. But if they don’t, it might feel like they got stuck in traffic along the way.

Man, I don't like the Ricketts. I've had a ton of critical things to say about them over the last 6 years. The Cubs just traded for potentially a top 10 player. They traded away a fifth outfielder who's money could be better spent. It sucks they insist on not going over the tax but they're going to spend another 30-40 million on improving the team this offseason. It's really easy to see if you're paying attention. They're not selling the team. This is horsefeathers stupid.

Lopez is my favorite of the options we've heard about. He's under market value and one of the few arms that would be a big upgrade. The prospect cost might be rough.

For the twins the aav was 18, because he only made 8.25 last year. The next 3 years he's owed 21.75.

If we're paying 24 mil I'd rather get a better pitcher. Hell, Ive got my concerns about Castillo but if you're going to spend 24 on a new pitcher this year he's much higher on the list. If were going to drop that much on the last pitcher its going to limit what they can spend on the bullpen. Id rather get someone whos likely to be good. Montgomery was awful last year and projects to be about as valuable as Assad or Wicks this year. He might bounce back. Paying 24 mil for a bounce back guy is not my preferred route at this point.

I'd rather throw Wicks or Assad out there then pay Montgomery 24 mil this year. Maybe if the Diamondbacks were eating a decent amount of the salary. I sure hope they are aiming higher.

If we get to next offseason and find out the Cubs never made any attempts at an extension and have no plans to bid for Tucker in FA I'll be pretty annoyed. But for the moment I'm still pretty jazzed that Hoyer was finally willing to take a swing. He's been ultra conservative with his prospects to this point and I think this was a good gamble. Tucker looks like a guy potentially breaking out into superstar status. That might price him out for us. But I'll take that risk for a Cam Smith every time. But they better still bring another starting pitcher and a back of the bullpen guy. Give this team a realistic shot to compete. And hell, if we get to mid-season, and its obvious we're not extending Tucker, and he's gonna cost too much in FA, then make some ballsy deadline moves, jump past that tax again this year, and give them a real chance in the playoffs. Nobodys gonna care about Cam Smith if they win another world series.

Haha. Whoops. Yah, the proposal was Bobby Miller. Definitely not Bobby Witt Jr.

I don't see how that makes any sense. It mostly seems like Rosenthal is reporting a list of guys the Dodgers could be interested in and since Suzuki was available at one point he's being thrown in. I dont really see the fit. If the Cubs got blown away with some major league pitching pieces then maybe they'd consider it and then go spend on a dh option but it just seems unlikely. One of the rumors said the Cubs would eat half the money and get someone like Bobby Witt so I lean mostly towards nonsense speculation.

That's part of the reason Buehler is pretty low on my list. We've already got one oft injured guy in the rotation, and unlike Buehler, Boyd was actually good in his limited innings last year.

I'm not totally against Buehler. I think he may be being overhyped a bit though. Hasn't pitched over 80 innings in a season since 2021. Was worth negative WAR last year. Has been worth 0.8 WAR over the last 3 years. I don't think anybody in baseball is signing him thinking he might slot in as a TOR starter. He'd have a lot more demand if that were the case. He's purely a bounce back candidate, who's 30 years old, and who's K/9 has been dropping every year.

It's been said on here several times, but if you grab Sasaki you're probably going with a 6 man rotation. If there's a pitcher you plan on penciling in to the rotation there is no reason to wait for the Sasaki results. The Cubs have already proved they aren't waiting on Sasaki by being involved in several trade conversations. Now if they ultimately move on to the FA market for SP then who knows. If that market isn't moving fast and all the guys you're looking at are being slow to make a decision then it could stretch out long enough. You might just put in Wicks as the 6th guy if you were able to grab Sasaki. But there's no way they just sit and watch guys they want go to other teams. The chances of Sasaki coming aren't high enough that you pin your offseason on his decision.

Those projections you're looking at were quite different before the trade. I know Tucker was at 5.6 and Paredes was more like 3.2. Paredes is now getting a huge boost from playing at Minute Maid while Tucker is being penalized for leaving. But let's not get too wrapped up in projections and use some common sense here. Tucker put up 5 WAR for three straight years and then really broke out with 4.2 WAR last year in half a season. He had a 180 wRC+. He was as good of a hitter as Soto. He might be on the verge of consistent top 5 player. Paredes last 3 years by WAR 2.4, 4.3, 3.4. Last year he had a 117 wRC+. Tucker has 6 years of hitting above 120. Paredes has 1. They really aren't that comparable. It's a guy possibly on the verge of superstardom vs a guy who's nice to have around.

If the Cubs were around 30 last week, the Tucker deal cost them around 8, Carson Kelly around 6, and Luzardo would be 6. That would leave them 10 before a Bellinger move. So if someone takes Bellinger with the Cubs only eating 5-7 you'd likely be looking at 30-32 left to fill out the team.

I'm really torn on Luzardo. Obviously he's a guy with a bunch of potential but his 2024 was pretty scary. If not for the Boyd signing I'd probably be interested in the gamble. Maybe it's my fault for talking myself into the idea the Cubs were going to add a rotation piece that would comfortably fit ahead of Taillon. But adding two guys, one who hasn't pitched over 80 innings in five years, the other who just had 2 injuries and only pitched 66 innings last year seems like a risky route. Reasons it might be worth it: He's 27 years old, makes 6 million, and had a great two year stretch before last year. The Cubs have Wicks, Brown, and Assad as depth, and Horton and Birdsell potentially lurking. All of the other pitching options also come with risk. Flaherty has plenty of injury concerns and will require more money and years. Eovaldi will cost money and is getting old. Castillo may be on the decline and is going to cost you atleast 3/75 plus prospects. I'd be much more excited about making a move for Cease, but we don't even know if that's on the table. Cassie is too much. Even trading Assad is a little worrisome when you've got pretty major concerns about your 4 and 5 pitching a full season. I think it's a fair risk for Triantos + somebody else outside the top 10. Slightly excited. Slightly scared. Atleast this offseason has been entertaining.

I think the Cubs would like to either clear almost all of Bellingers salary, or use him to acquire one of their needs. If the Yankees need the Cubs to eat 11+ and aren't offering them anything that helps the 2025 Cubs then they're a bad fit. There are other teams that would jump on Bellinger at 16m and probably offer something worthwhile.

I know he's only under contract for one more year, but that would be pretty awesome. It may not be the most efficient use of prospects since the Cubs won't retain him and Tucker both. But it also gives you two shots to retain a star player. I'd have to see what the cost is. That would be a great rotation.

I've seen a bunch of Nico for Castillo talk on Reddit and it's just baffling. I don't think Nico for Castillo was ever a thing. The Cubs may have been willing to move him for one of the Mariners young arms, or in the 3 way to get Crochet. But for Castillo it doesn't make any sense. Why are you trading your 4 WAR 2B making 12 mil for a 32 year old 2-3 WAR pitcher under contract for atleast 3/75? Even if the Mariners add prospects, which doesn't seem like something they'd want to do, the Cubs aren't getting better in the short term. Now that 3B is open there is really no reason the Cubs would be shopping Nico.

Yah, that's fine for Kelly. Maybe 37-38 left to play with after they move Bellinger.

Are you at all worried about his 2024? He hasn't pitched since June. He suffered an elbow injury. His K/9 dipped quite a bit. His velocity dipped. Then a back injury that kept him out from June 16th till the end of the year. I'd love 2022-2023 Luzardo but I'd be worried about giving up anything significant for him at this point. Plus pairing him with Boyd, who hasn't pitched more then 80 innings in 5 years, seems a good way to run through that depth fast. If you take the risk on Luzardo, who only costs 6 mil, you might want to grab another high ceiling bounce back guy to throw in there too.

Is Luzardo healthy? He was hurt most of last year and not all that good when he did pitch. If we hadn't already grabbed Boyd it would be an interesting gamble, but I'm kinda hoping for more of a sure thing for the 2nd pitcher addition.

Agreed. If they're sending out prospects I'm aiming for a better pitcher or a cheaper pitcher. Preferably both.

That's so obvious even Bob was able to figure it out.

That makes some sense, but I sure hope if they're willing to give Tucker a big extension they're also willing to jump into the tax occasionally. Especially since they should be entering a more competitive cycle.