chris carpenter through age 27 is terrible and about to have a major injury. http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml And look what happened. Little NL cookin', little decent lineup around him, and wa-la good pitcher. yes, after a major injury in which he missed a full season and completely rebuilt himself as a pitcher. seems like a good bet. I always thought *not* needing surgery would be a positive thing. Thanks for setting me straight. my point was just that, assuming lilly's elbow doesn't explode this season, his career path is about to diverge from carpenter. if carpenter proves to be a good comp, then a lot of really interesting things are going to happen in the next three years (rehab season, good season, cy young season, in that order).