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Image courtesy of Baseball History Comes Alive (SABR/Don Stokes) This offseason, we’re going to get in a time machine back to 1918. I’ll be doing a series of articles examining the 1918 Chicago Cubs. I’ll have game recaps, player profiles, summaries of major events, and all sorts of stuff in between. I plan on doing these chronologically, so you can feel like you are following along in real time. Today is the introduction—the pilot, if you will. I’ll briefly summarize the 1917 season for the Cubs, I’ll take a look at the state of baseball, and more importantly, the world, at that point in time, and I’ll run down some of the bigger offseason happenings for the Cubs. Huge shoutout to Baseball Reference and FanGraphs for all sorts of statistics and transaction history, and of course, the Society for American Baseball Research, which I will cite continuously in these pieces for their ability to track down and summarize all sorts of baseball history. Chicago Cubs' 1917 Season Recap The 1917 campaign was a frustrating season for the Cubs, as they went just 74-80-3 and failed to qualify for the postseason, which back then was just the World Series. This was despite holding a 25-16 record through the month of May. The team managed to score 552 runs, which was eighth among 16 teams, though their .239 batting average, which was a much more important statistic for baseball back then, was all the way down at 14th-best. Fred Merkle, Larry Doyle, and Les Mann were their only three full-time hitters to log above-average batting lines, according to wRC+ at FanGraphs. Pitching was perhaps a slightly different story, as their 2.62 ERA was seventh-best. The staff was anchored by Hippo Vaughn, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball at that time. His 2.01 ERA was 11th-best among qualified pitchers, and his 16.0 percent strikeout rate led all of baseball. Imagine that? Most famously, Vaughn pitched a game in 1917 where both he and his counterpart, Fred Toney of the Cincinnati Reds, threw no-hitters through the first nine innings of baseball. The Reds would inch ahead 1-0 in the tenth inning after breaking up Vaughn’s no-hit bid, and Toney would go on to complete his for the Cincinnati victory. The State of Baseball and the World If you know anything about history, you might already know that this time in history was a pretty significant time for the world. Way bigger than baseball, in fact. World War I officially began in 1914, and continued all the way until almost the end of 1918. The United States of America didn’t officially join until April of 1917, and while the war didn’t have a huge effect on that season, it was a large point of discussion in the months preceding the 1918 season. It would end up being a whole lot of discussion for very few resolutions, with the Sporting News reporting at the time that the two leagues “made no departures from previous regulations whatever, so far as was disclosed to the public.” The season would proceed as normal. There would be a tax implemented on ticket prices, though that was something that was mandated by the federal government. Ten percent of admission prices would go towards the war effort, but this actually increased ticket prices by more than 10 percent. You see, if a 25 cent ticket was only increased by 10 percent, that would make it a 28-cent ticket, and, according to the New York Times in January of 1918, “The baseball committee in Washington last Monday explained to the officials that if pennies were handled at the turnstiles at the baseball parks, hopeless confusion would result and it would be an impossible task to handle the big crowds which flock to the parks on Saturdays, holidays, and on double-header days.” Thus, a 25-cent ticket became 30 cents, a 75-cent ticket became 85 cents, and so on. Regardless, baseball would go on as scheduled, with many owners arguing that the public needed a distraction from the events that were happening overseas. The Cubs' Offseason In what is regarded as one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history, the Cubs dealt Pickles Dillhoefer, Mike Prendergast, and money to the Philadelphia Phillies for Bill Kiillefer and star pitcher Grover Alexander. Killefer would take over at catcher in 1918, and Alexander was pencilled into the starting rotation. The Cubs were also on the wrong end of a bad trade, though maybe not a historically bad one. They flipped Cy Williams for Dode Paskert, also of the Phillies. Williams would go on to club 217 home runs for the Phillies from 1918 to 1930, which might not feel like a lot nowadays, but it certainly was back then. That was third in all of baseball in that time frame, per FanGraphs, even if it was a far cry from Babe Ruth’s league-leading 556 home runs over that same stretch. Paskert would take over in center field for the 1918 Cubs coming off of a 1917 season in which he hit a robust .251/.331/.363, which was above average for the time. The aforementioned Merkle and Mann were both back to reassume their positions at first base and left field, respectively. Max Flack also returned to play right field despite hitting just .248/.325/.320 in 1917. In addition, 22-year-old Charlie Hollocher’s contract was purchased from the minor leagues. He was brought in to play shortstop, a position that badly needed fortification. Vaughn returned to front the rotation, and of course, had Alexander alongside him now. The Cubs also acquired Lefty Tyler in a trade with the Braves. Tyler’s 2.52 ERA in the 1917 season ranked 32nd among 73 qualified pitchers. Those three, plus returnees Claude Hendrix and Phil Douglas, who both pitched to ERAs in the mid-2s in 1917, figured to make up a strong pitching staff. Overall, a solid group of returning players from a team that had started the previous season off well, plus the acquisition of players like Alexander, gave the Cubs and their fans reason for hope heading into opening day of 1918. This series will continue in Part II! View full article

If you’re anything like me, you’ve been watching a lot of playoff baseball. Whether the Cubs are involved or not, it’s just something I do every October, like clockwork. Something I really enjoy doing, while watching, is trying to spot the small things that the two World Series teams are doing that other teams might try to emulate going forward. The most obvious one for this year's edition featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays is to spend money. Both teams are in the top five in payroll, and will pay the luxury tax. I could wrap this piece up in three paragraphs. The Cubs need to spend more money. We all already knew that, though. We also know, in all likelihood, that it probably won’t happen—at least not to the extent that we want it to. So what else is there? If you’ve been watching the World Series to this point, you might have noticed that there are a whole lot of splitters being thrown. This is likely due to the starting pitchers who happened to be throwing in Games 1 and 2 of the series. Of the four pitchers who have started to this point, three (Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto) heavily feature a splitter. With Max Scherzer and Tyler Glasnow set to start Game 3, you’ll probably be seeing fewer of them in the immediate future, but the trend prevails. According to Statcast, at 9.3% of their total pitches, the Blue Jays threw the most splitters in the regular season. The Dodgers, at 7.1%, were third. They’ve both doubled down on that in the postseason, too. The Blue Jays have upped their splitter usage to 15.4% in the playoffs, which is mostly a factor of the aforementioned Yesavage playing a greater role. The Dodgers have upped it to 9.4%, mostly thanks to increased splitter usage by Shohei Ohtani. Some of this is probably happenstance. Gausman, Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Yesavage are all good pitchers who happen to throw splitters. The former three all were throwing splitters before their current teams awarded them with big contracts. Yesavage credits his college pitching coach, Austin Knight, with teaching him a splitter, and was made a first-round pick last year partially because of the success of the pitch. This isn’t necessarily a case of the Blue Jays and Dodgers teaching guys how to throw a splitter better than everyone else. With that said, it’s hard to watch these guys use the pitch so effectively on the biggest stage in baseball and not wonder what the Cubs can do to better utilize the pitch among their staff. After all, the presence of the pitch has been slowly rising across baseball the past few years. All stats courtesy of FanGraphs: Year Splitter % 2025 3.3% 2024 3.0% 2023 2.2% 2021 1.6% The Cubs, for what it’s worth, were eighth in splitters thrown this season, with 4.9% of their pitches being splitters. That is mostly thanks to Shota Imanaga: 31.4% of his pitches this season were splitters. 12.1% of Colin Rea’s pitches were also splitters. No other Cub who worked more than 15 innings this year threw the pitch more than five percent of the time, and neither of those pitchers are guaranteed to be with the team for next season. There’s some recent history with the Cubs and trying to teach players a splitter. Just two years ago, they taught one to Jeremiah Estrada. According to an ESPN article by Alden Gonzalez, he never got comfortable with the pitch and came up with his own grip. Unfortunately, he wasn’t with the Cubs long enough for them to benefit from it. He was picked up by the San Diego Padres and has blossomed into one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons, in large part due to his splitter. For those unaware, a splitter is typically thrown with your fingers “splitting” the baseball. You place the baseball in between two of your fingers, typically your index and middle finger. This allows the pitch to look like a fastball out of your hand until it drops suddenly at the last second because there’s so little spin on the ball. Here’s an example of a well-thrown splitter from Gausman on Saturday night: TDZYZE1fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnZ0RWMXdEVjFNQUNGQUtWUUFIQWxBSEFBQUhVVkVBVjFkUkNWSURDVkJUQWxOZg==.mp4 The pitch is typically effective against opposite-handed hitters. If anyone remembers, this is why the Cubs used to bring the splitter-heavy Mark Leiter Jr. in to face left-handed hitters. Can you think of anyone on the Cubs who has struggled against opposite-handed hitters and could use a new pitch? Of course. That would be Ben Brown. I’m aware it’s much more complicated than that, and there are just so many factors at play with whether or not a pitcher learns to throw a pitch effectively enough to get major-league hitters out with it. Regardless, as you watch all of these pitchers continue to dazzle with their splitters in the World Series, keep this tucked in the back of your brain throughout the offseason. Splitters have been slowly proliferating over the past several seasons, and with them taking the spotlight in the World Series, it wouldn’t shock me if a Cubs player shows up to Spring Training in February with a fancy new splitter. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The outfield figured to be the Chicago Cubs’ strongest position group coming into the season, and believe it or not, they did perform as such. The group’s 122 wRC+ was second in baseball behind the Yankees, and they posted 14.3 WAR, which was third, according to FanGraphs. It makes sense. They added Kyle Tucker to the fold in hopes of bolstering the lineup with a superstar-level player. They were going to get a full season of Pete Crow-Armstrong, and while there were several questions with the bat, there was no doubt he was going to help defensively. Ian Happ has been as consistent as they come. That doesn’t even factor in Seiya Suzuki, who was hoping to continue improving into one of the league’s best hitters this season. It ended up being a bit of an up-and-down campaign for this group, but nonetheless, a successful one. Let’s take a look at how each player performed this season: Ian Happ: C I have no choice but to grade each player based on their expectations, and thus, I have no choice but to give Ian Happ a C. The veteran has been as consistent as it gets over the past four seasons, posting metronomic wRC+ numbers: 122, 118, 121, and 116. Unfortunately for the Cubs and Happ, 116 is the low figure, and that number was produced this season. Combine that with a weird decline in baserunning, and he put together 2.8 fWAR after three straight seasons of producing at least three wins. That’s still good, of course. While nobody gets overly excited about a three-WAR player, that’s still a player that everyone will take on their team every day. As I continue to watch postseason baseball, I have found myself wondering what the national perception is of Happ vs. Randy Arozarena. Happ has outproduced Arozarena over the past four years, per fWAR, but it feels like Arozarena gets a little bit more national attention because of some of his big playoff moments. Happ had one playoff moment this year. Let’s hope for more to come. Pete Crow-Armstrong: B I really struggled with this grade, and I am sure it’ll be the most polarizing. Crow-Armstrong had what I am now referring to as a Game of Thrones season (potential spoilers coming!). He had an elite first half of the season, with a 131 wRC+ and 4.6 fWAR, and was a legitimate threat to steal the National League MVP award from Shohei Ohtani. We all knew it was probably unlikely to happen, but it wasn’t completely insane to think. Then, he kind of forgot about the Iron Fleet (this is a joke for at least one person) and put up a 72 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in the second half. He wasn’t much better in the playoffs, either. He failed at the most recent, and most crucial, part of the season, and that’s going to leave a bad taste in a lot of fans’ mouths this offseason. The landing wasn’t stuck. That doesn’t negate what he did in the first half, though, just like the last couple of seasons of GoT don’t negate all the awesome moments that preceded it. We still have Hardhome, and we still have the grand slam in May against the Reds, among many other highlights. If you’d had told any Cubs fan prior to this season that the young center fielder would put up a 109 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR for the full season, they would have taken that in a heartbeat. So, I have no choice but to give a good grade here. Besides, Game of Thrones is still one of the best rated television shows on IMDb. Kyle Tucker: C Both Tucker and the next player on this list had similar seasons to Crow-Armstrong, except the highs weren’t quite as high, and the lows weren’t quite as low. Despite everything that feels so incomplete about Tucker’s season—the injuries, the slow second half, etc.—he was still a top-30 offensive player in baseball by fWAR, and a top-20 hitter. Tucker ended up right back where he was in Houston during his 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons. Rightly or wrongly, fans in Chicago expected a bit more. After all, he did post a 179 wRC+ in an injury-shortened season just last year, and that dropped to 136 this season. Was 179 ever realistic? Probably not, but it gave us all reason to believe this was a potential super superstar, and not someone who is just going to consistently post really good seasons. Not that that is even a bad thing. Also, only 22 home runs on his stat line this season sticks out like a sore thumb. All in all, it almost feels as if Tucker’s first, and likely lone, season with the Cubs was incomplete. It wasn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but it also hasn’t left Cubs fans clamoring for the team to re-sign him. For what it’s worth, I’d still pay him in free agency; consistently elite bats are hard to find, even if Tucker's ceiling never again goes beyond that. Seiya Suzuki: C This is another one that I really struggled with. Suzuki had an incredibly productive first half of the season, slugging 25 home runs, however, a lot of those home runs came at the expense of his ability to get on base, both with a walk, or with any hit other than a home run. Then, when the home runs stopped coming as often in the second half, things crumbled for Suzuki for a good long while before he finally righted himself at the best possible time. I upped the grade from a D to a C because he proved to be one of the Cubs’ few reliable hitters in the playoffs, along with Michael Busch and Nico Hoerner. With that said, it’s still hard not to view this season as a disappointment for the Japanese star. After steadily increasing his wRC+ in each of his first three seasons in the United States, his 123 wRC+ this year was his lowest since his rookie campaign. If we want positives for next season, it should be noted that Suzuki posted a 152 wRC+ when he played the field this year, compared to a 109 wRC+ when he was the designated hitter. I’m not convinced that is anything other than a coincidence, though it at least bears monitoring if the Cubs let Tucker walk and reinstall Suzuki as their full-time right fielder again in 2026. Bench: Incomplete Outside of those four players, the Cubs only gave 102 plate appearances to any other player at an outfield position. Willi Castro led the way with 62 plate appearances, followed up by Owen Caissie with 19, Kevin Alcantara with 12, and Vidal Brujan with 9. None of them, save for Caissie, were particularly productive with that time. It was also so few and far between that it doesn’t feel fair to give them a poor grade. If the Cubs have one smaller thing to accomplish this offseason, it’s making sure they have a backup center fielder on the roster that they are comfortable starting for Pete Crow-Armstrong on days where there are tough lefties on the mound. It’s hard to take his defense out of the game, but it was clear by the end of the season that he could have used an extra couple of days off every month or so throughout the regular season. He can always be installed for defense later in the game. In the end, the Cubs' lack of outfield depth didn't come back to bite them too bad in 2025, and with Caissie ready for a full-time gig at the MLB level, there isn't a pressing need to overhaul the position group, even with Tucker set to leave. It was mostly a ho-hum season for the outfield corps, but given how high expectations were coming into the season, merely meeting them is an achievement itself. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs immediately put themselves in the driver’s seat of Wednesday’s season-saving victory over the Milwaukee Brewers with a big, four-run first inning. In the process, they broke the team’s streak of scoring three or fewer runs in 13 consecutive playoff games, and we all better thank our lucky stars for that. They needed every one of those four runs, and they can’t score after the first inning, for some reason. Pete Crow-Armstrong was arguably the most important cog in that first-inning rally. The young center fielder stepped to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. This felt even bigger than that, though, given that Carson Kelly struck out just before Crow-Armstrong came to the plate. Had the Cubs come away from that rally with only one run (and that one, really, disconnected from the rally itself, because it came on a Michael Busch leadoff homer), it would have been devastating. It certainly felt like they should have had more. If you want to follow along with this by rewatching the whole at-bat, you can do so here, via MLB's YouTube channel. Quinn Priester started Crow-Armstrong with a slider that began in the strike zone, and broke just below it. Predictably, being the swing-happy player that he is, Crow-Armstrong swung through the pitch for strike one: This is nothing new. Crow-Armstrong swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 41.9 percent of the time this year, according to FanGraphs. That was the third-highest rate in baseball. In the playoffs, coming into this game, that number was up to 46.8%. If you execute a breaking ball just below the zone, you’re going to get a swing and a miss much of the time. From there, Priester went even lower, opting for an 0-1 slider in the dirt, and then a 1-1 sinker at about the same spot. These might seem egregiously low, like you or I could lay off these pitches. However, in this postseason, Crow-Armstrong had swung at three of nine pitches in the waste zone, per Baseball Savant. Heck, he struck out on a pitch down there later in this very game, and here he is striking out on a very similar pitch just last game: NXlkRFBfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZRQUFCZ2NDVWxFQVhWTUVCQUFIVlZWVEFGbFdVZ0FBVkYwRFZRZFFCQUZUVmdOUw==.mp4 It’s called the waste zone because it’s typically where pitchers waste pitches, to get the hitter thinking about something else. You might get a swing out of a particularly aggressive hitter, or on a particularly nasty pitch, but not in most cases. The big problem with Crow-Armstrong lately has been that he's that hitter who gets himself out for you much of the time. In this huge moment, however, he managed not to expand, twice in a row. So now, Crow-Armstrong is right back in this plate appearance after chasing a ball on the first pitch. He laid off two pitches that have been kryptonite for him so far in these playoffs. You likely know what happened next: He got a 2-1 slider that hung over the middle of the plate, and he lined it into right field for a big two-out hit. He was patient, waited for his pitch, got it, and did damage with it. After that, he took off to steal second base, and William Contreras, in his haste to attempt to throw Crow-Armstrong out, let the ball pass him by, which allowed Ian Happ to score the Cubs’ fourth run of the inning—the run that ultimately guaranteed they’d win the game. It hasn’t always been pretty for Crow-Armstrong in these playoffs. Really, since start of the second half of the season, it's all been ugly. Even the good has been ugly. Watching him adjust in real time, lock in, and produce a big hit for the Cubs in such a huge moment was really rewarding, though, and without it, I am confident in saying that I’d currently be writing about the end of the Cubs’ season. Instead, we have a Game 4 to look forward to. View full article

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Just yesterday, I wrote about how Jameson Taillon was a decent matchup for the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the wild card series. I also called Taillon as a Game 3 playoff starter “underwhelming,” and threw some criticism at Jed Hoyer for not having a better contingency plan. I stand by that, despite the role that Taillon’s four shutout innings played in the series clinching win (seriously, how awesome was he?). Cade Horton has thrown more innings than he ever has in his professional career, and he has a fairly substantial injury history to boot. Matthew Boyd eclipsed 180 innings this week, the most he has thrown since he was a young and spry 28-year-old. Point being, we knew at the trade deadline it was unlikely both would be available in the playoffs. Yet, nothing was done to really address that, and thus, we had Jameson Taillon starting Game 3. That’s on Hoyer. Period. And yet, I am actually here to send some praise Hoyer’s way. Look through my post history, and you’ll find both some approval and some condemnation heaped towards Hoyer. That’s exactly how things should be with a baseball executive who is somewhere in the middle. I believe Hoyer is something like the 10th or 12th best executive in baseball. He does a good job with what he is given, though his passivity has a tendency to drive me insane. That’s all for another day, though. We’re here to celebrate. The Cubs won the wild card series over the Padres by allowing only five runs. The bullpen pitched 14 ⅔ innings and gave up just two runs. They came in in the fifth inning of Game 1, held the score at 1-0, then shut the door once the Cubs grabbed the lead. They came in in the fifth inning of Game 3 with a two-run lead and shut the door on the Padres again, though things got unnecessarily complicated in the ninth. (NOTE: I am considering Imanaga’s four innings on Wednesday as starter’s innings, and Kittredge’s one inning as a bullpen inning, since Imanaga was effectively the starter.) Here are the bullpen guys the Cubs used to shut the door in their two victories: Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Kittredge, Brad Keller, and Caleb Thielbar. That’s it. That’s Craig Counsell’s tight circle of trust, and that is clearly who he is going to lean on as the playoffs continue this weekend. How did they acquire each of those guys? Player How were they acquired? Palencia 2021 - midseason trade with Athletics for Andrew Chafin Pomeranz 2025 - preseason trade with Mariners for cash Kittredge 2025 - midseason trade with Orioles for Wilfri De La Cruz Keller 2025 - preseason minor league contract Thielbar 2025 - signed in offseason for $2.75m We’ll exclude Palencia, since he took several years of seasoning by the Cubs before finding his stride this year. The other four were all acquired this year, and the total cost of acquiring those guys, if you factor in each of their salaries, was a low-end prospect and something like $4 million. Anyone could have had these guys. But Jed Hoyer identified them and brought them in, and it’s paying dividends for the Cubs. We were all kicking ourselves in the offseason when both Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates signed with the Dodgers instead of the Cubs. Those guys have a 4.74 and 5.23 ERA, respectively, and cost a combined $29 million. The bullpen is a huge area of concern for the Dodgers in these playoffs. It’s not for the Cubs precisely because Jed Hoyer did a fantastic job working in the bargain bin and continually tinkered with the bullpen as the season progressed. For once, let’s all praise him for that. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images After the San Diego Padres tied up the Wild Card Series with a win on Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs have officially tabbed Jameson Taillon as the starting pitcher in the deciding Game 3 on Thursday. If that feels a bit underwhelming, well, that’s because it is. That’s nothing against Taillon, whom I like as a pitcher, and about whom I have heard nothing but good things as a human being. It's just that we all thought Cade Horton would be starting one of these three games as recently as one week ago, and another starting pitcher was such an obvious need that Jed Hoyer traded for Jesús Luzardo last offseason—before backing out due to medical concerns. He settled for Colin Rea, instead. I digress. Taillon is our reality, and I try my darnedest to live in the present reality every day. I also try my darnedest to be optimistic, so I am here to point out that Taillon is a good matchup for this Padres lineup. You’ve probably noticed, by now, that five of the typical nine hitters that the Padres pencil in every day (or at least for the first two games of this series) are left-handed. If you’ve followed the Cubs closely over the past few seasons, you might recall that Taillon badly struggled to get lefties out during his first two seasons in a Cubs uniform. With Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth all figuring to be in the Padres lineup, that would be bad news for the Cubs. However, Taillon has completely reversed his trend of struggling against lefties this season. All stats courtesy of FanGraphs: Year BA vs. LHH OBP vs. LHH SLG vs. LHH 2023 .266 .340 .514 2024 .254 .303 .428 2025 .191 .249 .361 The reason for this sudden shift? I’ve written about this twice this season already: Taillon has a fancy new changeup that he debuted this season, and it’s turned him into a completely different pitcher against lefties. It’s a kick-change, which emphasizes more vertical movement—more depth. Here is an example of a changeup he threw last season. ZW5QUHFfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmxBQVV3WU1BZ0VBQ3dZQVVRQUFWd1VBQUZoVUFsQUFWZ2RRVlFjQVZ3ZGRVMVFB.mp4 Compare that with one he threw this season, and you can see the difference. bmI4OThfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFWVlZnVUZCRkFBQUFjS0FBQUhVZzVTQUFOUkFGQUFBVlpUQndVTVUxVlZCd2RU.mp4 This has altered the way that Taillon approaches lefties. Instead of primarily working with a fastball, cutter and curveball, as he did last season, he now primarily throws a fastball, curveball, and the changeup. The change in results on the changeup, from last year to this year, have been staggering: Year BA SLG Whiff Rate 2024 .273 .576 14.8% 2025 .161 .258 36.6% Does this mean that Taillon is going to carve through the Padres' lineup tomorrow? We’ll see what happens. He’ll still have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at the top of the lineup, the first of whom homered off of Taillon earlier this season, and he wasn’t exactly lights-out against righties this year, either. The veteran right-hander is, at least, uniquely qualified to get through a lefty-heavy Padres lineup, thanks to his new changeup. Be on the lookout for that in the biggest game the Cubs have played since 2018. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images With Justin Steele sustaining an early-season injury and Cade Horton suffering a poorly-timed one last week, the current state of the Chicago Cubs’ pitching staff is not engendering a ton of confidence. Despite this, Tuesday’s 3-1 victory over the San Diego Padres in the playoff opener might have given us a sneak peek into how, exactly, Craig Counsell plans on using what he has... at least to get through the wild card round. There was much talk prior to the series beginning about the Padres’ struggles against left-handed pitchers. As a team, they had a 96 wRC+ against lefties this season, according to FanGraphs. This means they were four percent worse than league average. Against righties, they had a 105 wRC+. That might not seem like a huge disparity, but in a three-game series, every single tiny little edge matters. With Matthew Boyd, a lefty, starting for the North siders, the Padres still decided to roll out a lineup with five left-handed hitters: Player wRC+ vs. LHP wRC+ vs. RHP Fernando Tatis Jr. - R 104 141 Luis Arraez - L 82 113 Manny Machado - R 128 121 Jackson Merrill - L 82 135 Xander Bogaerts - R 114 99 Ryan O’Hearn - L 195 84 Gavin Sheets - L 89 119 Jake Cronenworth - L 116 118 Freddy Fermin - R 8 95 Considering both O’Hearn and Cronenworth have performed very well against southpaws, this might not look like too bad of a decision. Swap in their career platoon splits, though, and a clear picture is painted: Player wRC+ vs. LHP wRC+ vs. RHP Fernando Tatis Jr. - R 137 136 Luis Arraez - L 90 126 Manny Machado - R 128 121 Jackson Merrill - L 81 142 Xander Bogaerts - R 128 111 Ryan O’Hearn - L 78 108 Gavin Sheets - L 56 103 Jake Cronenworth - L 94 116 Freddy Fermin - R 87 90 Mike Shildt is practically telling Craig Counsell how to deploy his bullpen here: right-handers against the top of the order, left-handers against the bottom of the order. There is not a single hitter that has hit above average for their career against lefties in the 6-9 spots. Surprising nobody, this is exactly what Craig Counsell did! Matthew Boyd was removed after exactly two turns through the order, with one out and a runner on first in the top of the fifth. Boyd, it should be noted, was actually decently effective the third time through the order this season. Despite this, it seemed premeditated that Boyd was going to come out once the lineup turned over a third time. It makes a good bit of sense, too. With 13 outs to go, and the top of the order coming up, it aligned all too well for Craig Counsell to use his trusted, leverage arms to get through the remainder of the game. Daniel Palencia took hitters 1-5, then the lefty Drew Pomeranz came in for hitters 6-8. Andrew Kittredge, a righty, came in to retire Fermin, Tatis, and Arraez, and then Keller closed things out against 3-5 in the order. Not a single runner reached base, and in the process, the Cubs grabbed the lead and walked out of Wrigley Field with a win. The only thing that I was surprised to see was Palencia facing Merrill, but he sure made me look silly. How good was he? The question, then, is whether Mike Shildt will do anything different with his lineup in Game 2. The top five in the lineup figure to remain the same. The Cubs have announced Andrew Kittredge as their starter, and I’d imagine he’ll only face Tatis, Arraez, and Machado, with Shota Imanaga figuring to follow to face the lefties thereafter. The more I looked over their options, I don’t know what other choice Shildt has. Nobody is worried about a platoon advantage, or disadvantage, for Freddy Fermin, so he won’t break those lefties up. What options await on the bench? Player wRC+ vs. LHP wRC+ vs. RHP Martin Maldonado 120 32 Luis Campusano 1 -16 Jose Iglesias 92 61 Mason McCoy 47 41 Bryce Johnson 105 156 Campusano, McCoy, and Johnson have combined for 137 MLB plate appearances, so I don’t think the Padres want to rely on them. Martin Maldonado has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this century. That leaves Iglesias, who could play for Cronenworth or O’Hearn, but still, with a 92 wRC+ against lefties, we’re not exactly talking about a world class hitter here. They’re really missing the presence of Ramon Laureano, who hit lefties incredibly well this year. Knowing Kittredge is starting, the Padres could move one of Merrill, O’Hearn, Sheets, or Cronenworth up so that they get to face a righty, but that bumps Tatis or Machado, their two best overall hitters, down in the lineup, which would also be a win for the Cubs. The Padres have no perfect solution here. In Game 1, Craig Counsell had a clear plan and it worked to perfection. Will the Padres try to counter it at all in Game 2? Or will they simply keep rolling with the group they believe is their best overall lineup? View full article

I vividly remember thinking he should have won it! And also meant to include in the article, his 1.084 OPS did lead the team in that World Series.

Image courtesy of © Jon Durr-Imagn Images In case you missed it, Anthony Rizzo is officially retiring as a Chicago Cub. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported that he will be honored during Saturday’s contest against the Tampa Bay Rays and that he will serve as an ambassador for the team going forward. This is something that we should all feel good about when there’s been little to feel good about on the North Side since Rizzo was traded four years ago. The first baseman was the face of Cubs baseball during the most fruitful and successful period of the modern era. It often feels like the ending fell a bit flat—and it did, to be clear. Saturday, however, represents an opportunity to right that wrong. Let’s remember the good times and look back at some of his most memorable moments in a Cubs uniform. Honorable Mentions The 2015 NLDS home run barrage In many ways, the 2015 Cubs were a year early. Sure, they had acquired Jon Lester that offseason, but guys like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber had yet to even make their big league debuts. They were supposed to get a taste of being competitive that year before really hitting the ground running in 2016. Still, they announced their presence in a big way. After knocking off the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card game, they took down the St. Louis Cardinals in four games in the NLDS thanks to a home run barrage from so many of their young sluggers. Rizzo, of course, played a huge part in that. He hit one bomb during the Game 3 onslaught that ultimately ended with the Cubs launching six home runs, a postseason record that has only since been tied. He also hit the home run in Game 4 of that series that gave the Cubs the lead for good, propelling them into the NLCS. 2016 NLCS Game 6 home run off Clayton Kershaw Sure, the game was already mostly in hand when Rizzo hit this dinger to make it a 5-0 lead, but something about this one always felt symbolic to me. Combine the crowd chanting Kershaw’s name in jest, Kershaw’s frustrated scream, exasperated look, and defeated crouch to the ground, and you have, to me, the one moment where you knew that the Cubs did the darn thing. They made the World Series and took down arguably the greatest pitcher of this generation to get there. 5. The fight against Cincinnati Hindsight is always 20/20. That said, I remember feeling like this game was one where the Cubs had found a leader. It’s cliche, I know, and as a data-first guy, I am always skeptical that something like that can have a profound impact on a team. Still. Something about the way Rizzo was ready to fight the entire Cincinnati Reds team to defend his teammate said something. It felt like a crossroads in the Cubs’ attempt at a rebuild, and knowing what we know now, I think that maybe this was some sort of step in his maturation and development. I also remember thinking that Arismendy Alcantara’s four-hit game on that day was a harbinger of things to come for him. One out of two ain’t bad. 4. The tarp catch and the ledge catch Nothing personified the mid-to-late-2010s Cubs quite like defense. Every time you turned them on, you knew there was a chance to see something new. Whether it be Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant playing every position, a pitcher in left field, or Javy Baez making ridiculous plays, they always kept things new and interesting on that side of the baseball. Rizzo was, of course, no exception, winning four Gold Gloves in his Cubs tenure, and making plays like these that are still talked about to this day. There are even bobbleheads commemorating each of these two catches. It should be noted, too, that with the extension of the screens (for good reason), we will probably never see catches like this again. 3. Striking out Freddie Freeman Of course. An obvious entrant on this list. You can’t talk about Anthony Rizzo without talking about the fun that he had while playing the game we all love. No moment personified that more than when he managed to strike out Freddie Freeman. It was meaningless, sure, but it was also silly, and helps serve as a reminder that these are all just grown adults playing a game. Rizzo’s unique ability to play with such intensity while also not taking himself too seriously helped endear him to so many fans and made him into the fan favorite that he was. Remember when he offered hand sanitizer to Orlando Arcia in the first game of the COVID-affected 2020 season? Or when he shared orange slices with the team in the dugout like a little leaguer? 2. Home run after a 14-pitch plate appearance on Opening Day 2.0 The date of this home run was June 11, 2021. That probably means little to you in retrospect, but back then, that was Opening Day 2.0 for the Cubs. That meant it was the first day that Wrigley Field was allowed back to full capacity after the COVID-19 pandemic. Sure, this was just a regular season game, but given the circumstances, it felt like more. During a time where we all felt so alone, we all suddenly felt so together, roaring after every foul ball that Rizzo continually hit, coming all the way to a crescendo as he tied the game with a home run in a game that the Cubs would go on to win. 1.The 2016 World Series I am, admittedly, cheating a bit here, and am going to lump a few highlights from the 2016 World Series into one section. But if you haven’t noticed, I lumped other highlights into other sections, too. You try picking only five Anthony Rizzo highlights! While this first particular highlight might have gotten lost to time a bit, it feels fitting that it was Rizzo that got the Cubs on the board in the World Series. After losing a 6-0 shutout that never felt particularly close in Game One, it was Rizzo that gave the Cubs the lead in the first inning of Game Two. As if to say “relax everyone, we’ve got this.” This is another very specific highlight, but it is a double that led to Rizzo scoring the eventual go-ahead run in Game Five of the World Series. I also wanted to use this to mention one of my favorites anecdotes from The Cubs Way by Tom Verducci, a fantastic book about the Cubs’ World Series run that year. You might have noticed him punching the air like a boxer after hitting the double. Well, here is the backstory, via Verducci’s book: ”An hour before Game 5, [Rizzo] broke out his pregame inspirational and comedic presentation, quoting motivational lines from movies with no clothes on. The Cubs won, so Rizzo did it before Game 6, too. They won again, so he did it before Game 7, as well. After batting practice was over, and only an hour before the seventh game of the World Series, Rizzo stripped off all his clothes, cranked the theme from Rocky on the clubhouse stereo one more time, jumped on top of a coffee table, and began quoting lines from the movie and throwing his best shadow-boxing punches. Pitcher Hector Rondon, joining in on the hijinks, picked up an aerosol can of shoe cleaner and sprayed it in the direction of Rizzo’s groin. Startled and angered, Rizzo stopped and yelled ‘What the heck, man!’ He cut the music and stormed off toward the bathroom, where he went into the showers to clean off the spray. ‘I’m thinking, Dang, what’s he doing?’ [David] Ross said. ‘We can’t have this negative vibe right before the game. I go by there. I can tell he’s a little irritated. He is irritated.’ Ten minutes went by. Rizzo finally emerged from the shower. He walked back silently to his locker with a towel around his waist. The room was quiet and uneasy. Ross walked up to Rizzo and broke the silence. ‘Hey! It’s not how many times you get knocked down … it’s how many times you get up!’ Rizzo chuckled. ‘You know what?’ He said. ‘You’re right!’ Said Ross, ‘He rips the towel off, runs up, turns the music on again, and he jumps back on the coffee table and starts doing the Rocky motions again and shadow-boxes.’” Rizzo picked up the boxing stuff, presumably, as a way of showing that the Cubs were never going to give up. In a matter of two pitches, with Andrew Miller and the Cleveland bullpen looming, the Cubs went from down 1-0 to tied 1-1 and with the go-ahead runner on second base, thanks to Kris Bryant and Rizzo. And who can forget about Bryant? I know this is an article about Rizzo, but it’s still difficult to separate the two. They formed arguably the most potent lineup duo in baseball for about a five year stretch. They were seen as incredibly likable teammates and friends, so much so that the Bryzzo Souvenir Company videos became viral hits. All of this brings me to Rizzo’s defining moment as a Cub. The defining picture in Chicago Cubs history is one of Rizzo, arms in the air in jubilation, celebrating the final out of the 2016 World Series. Who better to have the ball in that final moment than the one that touched so many lives through his charitable work for cancer and Lurie’s Children’s Hospital? Who better than the longest tenured of the team’s young sluggers? Who better than the unofficial captain, shadow-boxing, Reds-fighting, fun-having first baseman? View full article

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images There’s no two ways about it: Willi Castro has drastically underperformed since being acquired by the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. It was easy to dream on the utility player being used all over the diamond to give some much-needed rest to the regulars. However, a .159/.205/.246 batting line since joining his new team makes it difficult to justify playing him any more than is absolutely necessary. This particularly stings because it feels like the Cubs have really struggled to build a decent bench for a few years now. During that same timeframe, they have had one of the better and most consistent starting nines in baseball. Take this year, for example. The Cubs have exactly nine position players who have accumulated at least one WAR at FanGraphs. They’re the ones you’d think: Carson Kelly, Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki. Only three other teams in baseball can claim this, though admittedly, a few others will likely reach the mark by the end of the season. The three teams are the Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays. At first glance, I’d say that’s not a bad list of teams to be grouped with this season! All of those teams will be playing October baseball, barring a major meltdown. Between those four teams, the Cubs have accumulated the most FanGraphs WAR among their top nine players, and those top nine players have taken the greatest percentage of their team’s plate appearances this season: Team Top-Nine fWAR % of PAs taken by top nine Blue Jays 26.5 77.5% Brewers 24.7 68.7% Cubs 27.1 86.7% Red Sox 23.4 69.8% Frankly, it’s not particularly close, and this chart gives me two takeaways. One is that the Cubs have one of the most productive group of starters in baseball, and they ride those guys hard. The other is that the Cubs have been pretty fortunate in the injury department on this side of the ball. Ian Happ is the only member of the Cubs’ usual starting lineup that has spent any time on the injured list. Have the Cubs struggled in building a bench because they’ve had issues finding good roster fits? Or have they had issues because they simply can’t afford to give any bench players consistent plate appearances thanks to such a productive core group of position players? Which brings me all the way back to Castro. He received just 60 plate appearances in August, the least he has received in a calendar month in two years. It’s really hard to go from being an everyday player, receiving 100 or so plate appearances per month, to a part-time player receiving only 60. Looking briefly at Castro’s batted ball data would certainly suggest he is having issues timing up the baseball. All stats courtesy of FanGraphs: Team Pull% Center% Oppo% With Twins 40.2% 38.4% 21.5% With Cubs 24.5% 43.4% 32.1% Perhaps fittingly, it’s been Castro’s performance against fastballs that has really suffered. Against four-seam fastballs, the utility man had a 141 wRC+ with the Twins. That has fallen to -56 with the Cubs. That is not a typo. Castro has yet to notch a hit against a four-seam fastball since joining the North Siders. There are a few ways you can point your finger in this situation. I don’t care how infrequently he is playing, Castro needs to be better than he has been, even if it isn’t quite as good as he was with the Twins. Craig Counsell could probably do a better job of keeping his bench involved, too. That’s just so hard to do when you have so many productive regulars, and so many unproductive bench guys. Jed Hoyer could probably do a better job of building the bench. The counterpoint to that, though, is that Castro was the theoretical perfect fit. And even that isn’t working. Or, perhaps it’s really hard to be a productive big leaguer with such limited playing time. The most likely explanation is usually a combination of all of those things. With some of the injuries starting to accumulate for the Cubs, and their playoff position looking increasingly secure, perhaps Castro can find a groove with some increased playing time going forward. His presence on this team is invaluable, even if his production has been worth nearly no value thus far; getting him going would give Counsell a 10th guy to rely on, something the Cubs haven't had in quite some time. View full article

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images Following Friday night’s win in Denver, Cade Horton is now 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA since the All-Star Game. He’s asserted himself as a clear favorite for the Cubs’ postseason starting rotation and has been a bright spot in an otherwise difficult-to-watch second half for the North Siders. The rookie is also ninth in baseball in WAR in that same timeframe, according to FanGraphs. He’s far and away been the Cubs’ best pitcher for almost two months now. The thing is, he hasn’t quite been the exact same pitcher for this whole period of sustained success: I was long fascinated with Horton’s inability to strike hitters out at the big league level. This is a guy who struck out 190 hitters in 151 ⅔ innings in the minor leagues. If there was one definite ability of his, it was the ability to record a punch out. Yet, for the first 14 appearances of his big league career, Horton just didn’t do much of it. His 17.3 percent strikeout rate over that period of time was just 172nd out of 207 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. Before I could even figure out what the deal was, Horton suddenly started striking guys out again. It started with six in 5 ⅔ innings against the Reds on August 6. Then, eight in 5 ⅔ innings in Toronto. Three in 2 ⅔ innings in his abbreviated start against the Brewers. And seven in 6.0 innings against the Angels. If we crunch the numbers and do the math, that’s a jump to a 28.3 percent strikeout rate since August 6. That’s in the top 20 percent in baseball, alongside names like Paul Skenes and Blake Snell. More recently, my fascination has shifted to finding the difference between these two versions of Cade Horton. Disregarding his most recent outing in the high altitude of Colorado (where he notched four strikeouts in 5.0 innings), let's split the season into two periods: outings from his major league debut through his August 1 start against the Orioles, and then the four starts following that. The first place I always look when a pitcher is racking up strikeouts is their whiff rate, or the percentage of swings that a hitter takes that result in a swing and a miss. For Horton, it was actually better when he was striking out less guys, going from 27.9 percent to 24.1 percent during his more recent four starts. For the rookie right-hander, it’s actually the swings that hitters aren’t taking that are benefitting him. All stats courtesy of Statcast and FanGraphs: Timeframe Zone% Called Strike % First Strike % 5/10-8/1 50.3% 16.2% 66.1% 8/2-8/28 60.2% 21.5% 75.0% Woah! So Cade Horton is absolutely filling up the strike zone, which is resulting in two things: a whole bunch of called strikes, and he is getting ahead of hitters. For reference, that 60.2 percent in-zone rate, 21.5 percent called-strike percentage, and 75 percent first-strike percentage would all lead the league if it was for the full season. To take this a step further, let’s examine what he is doing differently to right-handed hitters, specifically. To righties, he has started sprinkling in his sinker much more often. He threw it 16.9 percent of the time against righties in his strikeout-heavy stretch, up from 8.7 percent previously. And it’s not just that he is throwing it more, it’s when he’s throwing it. From August 2 to August 28, 28 percent of his first pitches to right-handed hitters was a sinker. Only 11.5 percent were sweepers. Previously, just eight percent of first pitches to righties was a sinker, and 35.5 percent of them were sweepers. It’s somewhat obvious as to why. Only six of Horton’s first pitch sweepers this year have been put in play, but two of them left the ballpark for home runs. That’s usually a pitch you want to throw out of the strike zone to induce a chase. If the youngster’s goal is now getting ahead of the hitter, that’s probably not the pitch to throw in the zone to accomplish that goal. A sinker, on the other hand, if you’re executing it properly, is likely only going to get hit for a single if it's in the zone, or maybe a very-well-placed double. Is this a sustainable way of recording more strikeouts for Horton going forward? This is kind of a cop out answer, but: maybe! Pitchers can succeed and record strikeouts by living in the strike zone this much. Tarik Skubal comes to mind. Then again, he is literally one of the two best pitchers in baseball right now, so that’s a lofty goal for Horton. Regardless, I’d say it’s encouraging that Cade Horton is willing to tinker and make in-season adjustments like this, especially as a rookie. His in-zone rate was back down to 44 percent against the Rockies, and he got a lot less strikes looking, and a lot less strikeouts, as a result. Will we see a return to living in the zone during his next start? View full article

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Toward the end of April, I examined the early results on the Cubs’ baserunning. Looking at advanced baserunning statistics that early in a season can be a weird exercise. Baserunning stats like BsR at FanGraphs and Baserunning Runs at Baseball Savant can fluctuate wildly based on the opportunities afforded to a team. Both of those stats measure how many runs a team's, or player’s, baserunning has been worth. This can certainly lead to wild variations by month. At the time I wrote that article, the Cubs were off to a great start on the base paths. They were, hands down, the best baserunning team in baseball, and I noted that this was something to track going forward. So here I am, checking in now, almost four months later. Unfortunately, I am here to tell you that the Cubs have most certainly not been the best baserunning team in baseball since that article was published. All stats courtesy of FanGraphs: Month BsR MLB Rank March/April 4.7 2 May 1.7 4 June 2.1 2 July 0.9 12 August -0.4 20 All statistics need context. To some degree, a decline in baserunning value makes sense. I’m not sure if you’ve heard or not, but the Cubs offense has been struggling. Their team batting average in August is .218 and their on-base percentage is .288. Those are both 28th in baseball, per FanGraphs. If a team is getting less hits and on base less, that’s less opportunities for guys to take an extra base, and less opportunity for guys to steal a base. To take that a step further, Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was responsible for a lot of the value early on, has an August on base percentage so minuscule that I won’t even list it here. Still, should it have plummeted this badly? With the more recent struggles, the Cubs are down to third in BsR at FanGraphs with 9.1 runs of value. They are looking up at, of course, the Milwaukee Brewers, who have accumulated 13.6 runs of value on the bases. So, we can chalk some of this up to the general struggles of the offense. But is that really all? Let’s take a look at stolen bases, and caught stealings, by month: Month Stolen Bases Caught Stealing March/April 44 6 May 30 6 June 26 5 July 21 5 August 12 5 Again, to a point, the drop in stolen bases makes sense. They’re getting on base less. Their best and fastest baserunner is getting on base a lot less. What’s more concerning to me is the five times they have been caught stealing. This was a team that was successful in over 80 percent of their steal attempts in every month this season. In August, they’ve been successful just 70 percent of the time. Generally, you want to be successful in stealing a base at least 75 percent of the time to accrue positive value. Everything considered, there’s still no doubt that they have been less aggressive. Offensive struggles or not, this team attempted 36 steals in May (note: I am excluding the 50 attempts in March and April since they played more games in that stretch than any other month). They very well might not even attempt 25 in August. There’s a couple schools of thought here. What it feels like the Cubs are thinking is that baserunners have been such a rare sight! You don’t want to waste them and make an out on the bases. Or, one could argue, that the Cubs need to be pushing the envelope here. You have a struggling offense that hasn’t been hitting for power and they need as many runners in scoring position as possible, even if it means you make a few extra outs on the bases. Regardless, baserunning was something that the Cubs were doing really well during their best stretches of the campaign. It has since become something that they are simply average at. It could be sample size issues. It could be fatigue. It could be an adjustment of their strategy. It could be circumstance. But, regardless of whether or not the offense continues to struggle, it’s something I’d like to see them resume asserting some authority with. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Opinions will be mixed on Jed Hoyer’s trade deadline activity, or rather, lack thereof. To be clear, I wasn’t a fan of it. Not to mention, it looks even worse now after Michael Soroka got placed in the injured list after just two innings in a Cubs uniform, and after Andrew Kittredge took the loss in last Tuesday’s game, giving up four earned runs and recording just one out. None of that is great. If we’re being entirely honest with ourselves, though, the pitching hasn’t been the issue of late. In the six games since the trade deadline passed, the Cubs have given up zero, four, three, three, five, and one runs. Their team ERA is 2.67, and that’s third in baseball in that timeframe. Yet the team is only 3-3. The pitching hasn’t been the issue. The offense is rocking a dastardly 72 wRC+, an all-encompassing offensive statistic where 100 is considered average, since the start of August, meaning they are 28 percent below league average. That’s 25th in baseball, according to FanGraphs. These struggles start with Kyle Tucker, inarguably the team’s best hitter, who has a wRC+ of just 8 in those six games. But his struggles go back much further than that: Month wRC+ HR March/April 157 7 May 146 5 June 174 5 July/August 91 1 Prior to this blip in July and August, you’d struggle to find a more consistent performer than Tucker. Thanks to his keen eye at the plate, he has such a high floor as a hitter. That hasn’t changed one bit. The slugger had a 14.3 percent walk rate prior to July. He’s actually raised it to 18 percent in the time since. Suffice to say, there’s very little that is different from an approach standpoint. He swung at 18.8 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone during the first three months of the season, and that is down to 15.2 percent since. When it comes to his patience at the plate, Tucker is very much the same player that he has ever been. Much has been made about Tucker’s finger injury sustained on June 1 against the Reds. I’m not sure that I entirely buy that as the reason for his cold stretch. As evidenced in the table above, he went on to have his best month of the season, by wRC+, in June, immediately after the injury. He didn’t really start struggling until July. I would think an injury like that would be evident when you look at a player’s swing speed. Prior to his finger injury, an average Kyle Tucker swing was clocked at 72.1 mph, per Baseball Savant. His average swing has been 72 mph since then. I’m ruling out the finger injury. The one home run on that chart above is what really sticks out to me. Right or wrong, I’ve always felt that power is something that stays relatively consistent. Batting average might come and go month to month, or even season to season, based on some of the breaks that you’re getting. But a home run is a home run. There’s not a lot of luck required in hitting the ball over the fence (barring a very windy day at the Friendly Confines). Balls hit over the fence are typically hit in the air and to the pull side of the field. Tucker’s fly ball rate was a healthy 48.7 percent prior to July. In his more recent rough stretch, it has plummeted to 39.7 percent. Even worse, 32.8 percent of his fly balls were hit to the pull side early on this season. From July onward, only 22.6 percent of his fly balls are pulled. Now, 48.4 percent of his fly balls are hit to center field, the largest part of the ballpark. You probably won’t hit many home runs that way. While Tucker is as complete of a hitter as they come, he’s always done most of his slugging against fastballs. This is typical. Fastballs are straight and easier to hit. That’s baseball 101. Since the start of July, though, Tucker’s performance against fastballs has completely fallen off of a cliff. Month Batting Average Slugging Percentage March-June .309 .556 July-August .148 .222 Performing this poorly against fastballs, and suddenly hitting a lot less balls to the pull side, suggests a timing issue, at least to me. My hypothesis was that if we looked at a spray chart of Tucker’s from July onward, isolated only to fastballs put in play, we’d see a decent chunk of fly outs to deep center field. You be the judge: I don’t know about you, but I see a grouping of five or so balls there that would have been home runs had they been hit to another part of the ballpark. It’s not always this simple. Hitters fly out to the warning track sometimes! But, when a good majority of a hitter's best struck baseballs against fastballs are going to center field (heck, almost to the opposite field), my assumption is you’re having some sort of issue timing the baseball, especially with so few being hit to the pull side. In short, I think that this is good news for the Cubs. A timing issue is fixable. A finger injury is, too, but that requires time, which the Cubs don’t currently have since the Milwaukee Brewers will apparently not lose a baseball game for the rest of the season. Also, since Kyle Tucker might only be a Chicago Cub for a couple more months, it's better if this is a problem he can turn around in short order. Hopefully, he can get back to crushing fastballs so we can all remember his time here a bit more fondly. Or, the Cubs can just extend him. How about both? View full article