Magnetic Curses

using this board to try and dispell myths is fruitless. anytime anybody new shows up you just have to start over again. there should be board study kit presented to every new member before allowed to post.

i agree. wuertz and novoa are the weak links, and one or both will not be with the big club for most of this season. z prior wood maddux williams ohman williamson rusch howry eyre dempster we have way too many pitchers. when miller comes back, it'll be a log jam. look for someone to get moved, probably williams. we could probably package williams, novoa and wuertz for something of value.

why do i get the feeling that callers were cut off if they even mentioned OBP or plate discipline when not mentioned in conjunction with "baseball fundamentals"?

The timely hitting was there, Jim. The guys who draw the walks in front of timely hitting were not. I'm not so sure that the timely hitting was there. We left a lot of runners in scoring position including a number of basesloaded situations IIRC. It's difficult to have timely hitting when there are not many guys on base to create timely hitting in the first place. Walks are fine but I'd rather have a team that relied on timely hits. You can't build a team around telling guys to walk. You can just try to stress pitch selection, which should lead to better hitting and more walks. EDIT: I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the top five for runners left in scoring position. That happened all the time last year. you're kidding, right? please tell me that you're being saracstic.

which further proves that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

I'm probably among the most pessimistic Cubs fan after seeing what Hendry has failed to do the past 2 offseasons, but I can't agree with you here. For them to lose 90 they would have to have nearly unprecedented bad luck. I mean seriously, they gave 600 PA to Neifi last year and didn't get close to 90 losses. They started the year with the worst OF possible and didn't come close to 90. They could sleepwalk their way to a 75-78 win season. I don't think these guys are at risk of drafting in the top 5 next year. As I've said before, I think this team has locked in its mediocrity. I think they are a pretty safe bet to be around .500. The problem is not that they might lose 90, the problem is they've given themselves a very small chance of winning more than 90. i think this team has a decent shot to win 90+ if it's pitching remains healthy. however, if either or any combination of prior, wood, or z miss significant time, this offense doesn't have the juice to compete at even a basic level.

here we go, prior has fallen into the very same trap that woody fell into when he struck out 20. the guy took a line drive off his PITCHING ELBOW! he came back to finish the season as our second best pitcher. does he need to tweak his approach as hitters tweak their approaches to him? of course. and he'll do it.

then he's totally not good at it. Hendry is like the 12-year old kid who spends all his waking hours reading about fighter jets. He knows a whole lot of info on them, but when he builds that model, no matter how much time and energy he put into it, the thing still doesn't compare to the real thing made by General Dynamics. yep, for one, the mouth decal is upside down, there's glue coming out of the nose propeller, the wing is crooked, the bottom turret is coming off and the kid seems more and more enamoured with the tube of glue than the actual plane. But more importantly, it doesn't fly or blow things up. it's just not very good at what it's supposed to do.

then he's totally not good at it. Hendry is like the 12-year old kid who spends all his waking hours reading about fighter jets. He knows a whole lot of info on them, but when he builds that model, no matter how much time and energy he put into it, the thing still doesn't compare to the real thing made by General Dynamics. yep, for one, the mouth decal is upside down, there's glue coming out of the nose propeller, the wing is crooked, the bottom turret is coming off and the kid seems more and more enamoured with the tube of glue than the actual plane.

then he's totally not good at it.

but you can at least admit that our offense cannot afford neifi's defense. if we had an offense that was capable of winning big, neifi would be acceptable. we do not.

i met harry in the summer of 86 while at my first cubs game. he had gone up to speak to a friend of his in the stands and was on his way back to the field when my dad, being the brave soldier that he was, stepped in front of him and funneled him my way. "do you know who this is?" "sure, it's hairy kerry, hi hairy!" "hi, kid." (shake hands) dad told him thanks and harry said no problem and went back down to the field. the cubs lost to the expos but it was a great day. no matter who i've met in my life, when anyone asks me if i've met anyone famous, that moment is always the first to come to mind.

when the "known quantity" is neifi perez, there are more than a few better options, even an unknown such as cedeno. neifi just isn't that good at not making outs.

the braves won with pitching, not hitting, as have the a's. but considering that, historically, the chasm between the two, monetarily speaking, would more than make up for the lack of sample size on the part of the a's. beane has done just as much with less cash. schuerholz is still probably the best GM in the game, but beane is not far behind, no matter how many flat-earth theorists want to discredit him. and if you felt that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, you wouldn't keep bringing the subject up so much. just let it go. the reason the cubs couldn't score runs last year was due to the fact that they were bad at not making outs, pure and simple.

i've been telling people this all along, although not with the same meaning as you. we needed to upgrade OBP at several positions. i'd say that focusing on position-holes is stupid. if we decrease the rate that the team makes outs at, we will succeed. RF was a key ingredient in fixing team OBP, however, and management went after subpar solutions. yes, he may have spent a lot of money to fix a perceived problem, but he didn't fix the biggest problem, which is team OBP. if i were a GM, my motto would be: "I like guys who don't make outs".

the argument isn't "what it takes to win", it's "what it takes for this team to win". this team wasn't good at not making outs. that's where it needed to upgrade, starting nefi perez is not a good option if you're wanting to upgrade OBP. and if you're good at making outs, chances are that being fast won't help.

luck should be even across the board over 162 games. However, sometimes it takes a couple of seasons for the averages to even out.

If Randle-El is the type of player you're looking for, just draft Brad Smith. No thanks. The window will be closing on the Bears within two or three years, and Smith is raw. I'd prefer a vet WR; we have other projects (Bradley, Berrian, etc.). And you wouldn't be biased, would you? Nah, if I were biased I'd be telling people to draft him instead of Vince Young. :D Seriously though, they are similar talents. Both were running college QB's. Randle-El is probably a touch faster(although Smith isn't slow by any means), and Smith is more elusive with the ball in his hands. Smith's ability to catch the ball is a bit of an unknown, but that's why you work him out as a receiver to see how well he does. If he's got the hands, he has the other tools(size, speed, agility, elusiveness), that you'd value with Randle-El. if turner had a shotgun package, i'd say draft Smith as a QB. however, randle-el is a proven commodity in the NFL, so I'd take him.

1. please break up your post. this one gigantic paragraph rant is hard on the eyes and made me not want to read it. 2. how quickly we show our true colors, eh? God Bless, indeed. 3. juan pierre kills more runs than he creates. the problem with your thinking is that it doesn't account for failure in method. juan pierre fails a lot, more than an effective run-creator anyway. 4. Paul Depodesta got two years in LA, making the playoffs once. However, your average "flat-earth theorist" (as i will know the casual fan from now on) will often bring up Hendry's first full year at GM when defending him. what a joke. 5. just because you disagree does not make you mad at anyone, however, accusing people of buying their own BS will not endear you to anyone, either. your post is full of venom and vitriol, go read the Bible.

forgetting that boston had a .357 OBP and led the AL in walks last year. oh yeah, they also scored over 200 more runs than us. even taking into account the DH, that's astronomical. boston can AFFORD the luxury of alex gonzalez. we cannot afford to start neifi perez. i can't believe that i'm actually having this argument with someone. it's like arguing that 1 + 1 = 2.

I just watched the game (i've been working a ton and had it taped). How can you call that a clean block? Moody got hammered. Not that it mattered. I can't believe we gave that game away. Self cost us that one. You tell your kids explicitly, "Don't shoot until ten seconds are left in the clock." But were just jacking it up. Unbelievable. We should be undefeated in conference. Instead we're 2-2 with losses to our two biggest rivals. We've got our work cut out for us if we want to make the tourney now. self's not a great in-game coach. he'll do something with those recruits, though, provided that they stay for a couple years. and moody DID get hammered. you'd think a 3-4 time academic all-american could develop some type of consistent and repeatable free-throw shooting form. it's not that hard.

I know what you're saying that Illinois beat Georgetown, but please don't tell me you're one of those people that thinks Illinois is better than Duke this year. I have a friend that has been calling everyone he knows saying Duke should be ranked behind Illinois right now. hard to say who is better - I think Illinois could beat Duke when they play well. That is, Duke is far from great and is beatable (obviously). Illinois hasn't been too impressive lately but is good enough to be dangerous. I wouldn't argue they should be ranked ahead of Duke though. It's just my opinion, but I think that Illinois, like Louisville this year, is one of the most overrated teams around. They can be dangerous if they get hot, but Georgetown just showed that they have the same power. I haven't watched too many Illinois games this year, but from the few that I have seen, it looks like just a two man game with Brown and Augustine. And Iowa showed how to shut that down. I don't know if Florida has played a tough enough schedule to take over number one right now. And UConn and Nova have lost recently, so I don't see either of them making the jump. I think that Duke will hang on to the #1 ranking, but just barely. As of this week, they have every first place vote in the AP poll, and all but one in the coaches poll. You do know that Illinois beat that Georgetown team by 15 right? It's all about matchups IMO. The Princeton Offense worked against Duke. when illinois shoots horribly, they still have the defense to keep them in games, that's what separates them from Duke. against iowa, illinois just missed shots. they faced the same type of defensive aggressiveness that is indicative of Big Ten basketball and they shot poorly. dee brown, rich mcbride, and jamar smith ALL missed several wide open threes each. iowa is a lesser defensive team than MSU, yet the illini won at home against the spartans. it goes to show what kind of advantage you get in the BT when you're listed second on the matchup box. illinois lost to iowa at CARVER, not in champaign, i suspect the illini will win big on 2/25 at the AH. subsequently, the illini were edegd out by a very good hoosier team in bloomington, which i suspect will be an illini victory on 2/19 in champaign.

the steelers are a sickening combination of very good and very lucky.

Ok, lets review. 1. Bill James didn't write Moneyball or have anything to do with it. 2. Moneyball did not address the importance of OBP other than that Billy Beane recognized its value. 3. Just because you criticize the moves a GM makes, does not mean you think you could be a better GM. This is similar to arguing that because you criticize a player for striking out you think you could do better. 4. Most people don't scapegoat Neifi other than to point out the fact that his playing everyday and batting at the top of the order probably cost the Cubs a lot of runs. 5. Neifi's production could be obtained from a player making near league minimum. This makes Neifi's contract a bad one. This is not remotely related to fantasy baseball. This is very related to Moneyball. Have you read it? 6. The judge and jury part I don't understand. Yes, Neifi's abilities can be evaluated based entirely on statistics. What does he provide that can't be measured by statistics? Please don't hurt me this is my first post. I would like to refute some of Poudre's six points of light. 1. Although James did not write Moneyball saying he had nothing to do with it is like saying God had nothing to do with the writing of the ten commandments. 2. On the Billy Beane valuation of OBP my thoughts are: Beane recognized that players with high OBPs and lower BAs were being undervalued. To maximize his meager payroll he decided to pick-up as many high OBP players as possible. If high BA low OBP guys were what Beane perceived to be undervalued those are the players he would have been aquiring. It was all about getting the most bang for his buck, not about OBP. 3. Let's be honest here. We all know that we could do no better than the major league hitter who strikes out. But, at the end of the day we all think that we could do Hendry's or Baker's job. 4. Maybe this board needs to adopt some Neifi post traking statistics. My observation tells me that Neifi gets slammed at about a 4:1 ratio on this board. 5. Maybe Neifi's production could be obtained cheaper, but the Cubs are a large market team with a $100 million dollar payroll. Having a major league starting infielder who has won a GG on your bench is a tremendous luxury, and completely useless. Except, when your starting shortstop goes down in April for four months. But, how likeley is that to happen? 6. Obviously a player's abiities can not all be determined by statistics alone. If statistics were the only tool for determining a player's value Todd Walker would not be staring down his fifth team in six years, and D'Angelo Jimenez would have a starting job as a major league middle infielder. 1. although i dislike the analogy, i get your point and agree. but many people inspired the book. voros mccracken, sandy alderson, billy beane, paul depodesta--all had enough input into it. i wouldn't consider james the God of moneyball. 2. wrong. beane would put little value into high average, low obp guys, even if they were undervalued. beane saw that not making an out is the most important thing one can do in the grand scheme of thing to score more runs. he also noted that people in baseball were being blind, stupid, or both in not valuing players who make less outs than other players. argue all you want for players who "shake things up on the basepaths" or play somewhat above average defense--teams that make outs at a lesser rate will score more runs than any team built on conventional wisdom. 3. not very hard to do that. people who are consistently lousy at their jobs deserve to be fired. 4.that's what observation would get you. it's actually much higher than that. but, considering sample sizes and what not, you cannot honestly tell me that you can browse this board for less than a month and come away with any kind of idea as to rates or ratios. one more neifi bashing post per week is the difference between .250 and .300. let me clarify the opinions of most people that i know and respect: neifi is a decent latter inning replacement and occasional spot starter and 8th hitter, he sucks as an everyday player. this team, if hit had more OBP, could afford the luxury of starting a guy who can play defense like neifi, but it can't. 5. this is a terrible argument. simply because we have the money to spend doesn't mean we need to spend it on mediocrity at the plate. i never get tired of laughing at this idea. 6. meh, the 27 yankees hated each other. tinker, evers, and chance had a bad relationship. nobody liked ty cobb or pete rose. if you want to make a bad team, start by focusing on clubhouse chemistry and overrating it's importance instead of things that actually matter.

Personally I don't see Wood starting until July or August at the earliest and maybe not even at all this year. I see him working in the pen so he can get ready to sign a big deal with another team next year. i think you're way off base with this assertion. "july or august at the earliest"? the reports i've seen mention opening day at the earliest and mid-may at the latest. furthermore, the only way he gets a payday is if he pitches 200 innings and returns to his old form. you can't have it both ways, either he returns in august and goes to the pen or he gets a big payday as a starter. seems like you're taking this wood pessimism to extraordinary lengths, cuse.