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frostwyrm

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Everything posted by frostwyrm

  1. frostwyrm
    Yeah, I have to agree. The NL was lousy. In an average year this team would have lost 100 games and scored less too. The NL Central was particularly bad. The Cubs actually finished .500 within the division(42-42), but were 24-54 elsewhere. In a strong division the Cubs could have lost 105.
  2. frostwyrm
    A lot of democrats hate/resent her as well Yeah, and even among the Dems who like her there are plenty who admit she's unelectable as Pres. I think she should shoot for Senate majority leader. That can be a powerful office if you stay long enough to cement your place there and you have a big personality. She could bring some rockstar type charisma to the office.
  3. frostwyrm
    I knew all along Hendry wanted Lou more than anyone else.
  4. frostwyrm
    Hillary doesn't have a prayer. She will only make the red states redder, which means the Democrats lose. Warner is a candidate who might actually change some red states to blue.
  5. frostwyrm
    Are you just going to continue pretending 2005 didn't happen? I'd like to know if this conversation is going to remain pointless. We're both just speculating about Dempster's value, neither of us will actually know what he's worth until he's put on the trading block. Perhaps speculation is pointless, but this forum would be pretty thinly populated without it.
  6. frostwyrm
    Hendry was enamored with simply save totals when he went after Alf. Dempster has 57 saves the past two years with a terrible team that didn't give him many opportunities. His ERA is in the 3's, his OPS against is sub 700, his k/9 is about 8.5. He's not a worthless reliever. You can dig up peripherals and make a case that he has value as a middle reliever, but unfortunately he makes closer money, and I very much doubt he could be sold as an elite middle reliever. Non-elite middle relievers aren't worth much. As a closer he's a very hard sell because people who want a proven closer don't want to hear about peripherals. They want save percentage. Save totals trump save % for many people. In fact, I never ever hear anybody ever talk about save % when discussing closers. Just like they don't talk about win/loss for pitchers, they talk about win totals. You don't hear specific save % figures when the % is good, but blown saves definitely get noticed when they aren't surrounded by a whole bunch of saves. Demp's 9 blows will not be glossed over by 24 saves. He also took 9 losses, and every GM knows Demp nearly lost the closer's job and probably deserved to lose it.
  7. frostwyrm
    Hendry was enamored with simply save totals when he went after Alf. Dempster has 57 saves the past two years with a terrible team that didn't give him many opportunities. His ERA is in the 3's, his OPS against is sub 700, his k/9 is about 8.5. He's not a worthless reliever. You can dig up peripherals and make a case that he has value as a middle reliever, but unfortunately he makes closer money, and I very much doubt he could be sold as an elite middle reliever. Non-elite middle relievers aren't worth much. As a closer he's a very hard sell because people who want a proven closer don't want to hear about peripherals. They want save percentage.
  8. frostwyrm
    Did anyone say it would be easy? I don't think anyone here did. I keep seeing projections with Dempster leaving and we only eat 2-4 mil. That sounds pretty damn easy to me. Can you imagine the heat a GM would take for that deal when Dempster flops again? A guy could get fired for that. Dempster at 3 mil per year for 2 years is hardly an albatross. His K's and walks were almost identical from '05 to '06, and he even gave up fewer line drives this year. There's plenty of reason to believe Dempster won't be terrible again next year. This type of fluctuation is why it was stupid to give him the contract in the first place, but you're really, really overstating how hard it would be to move him, especially when you consider the extra weight GM's give to relievers who "have the ability to close". I have never met anyone who values numbers like LD% and also values saves. In my experience these types of people are mutually exclusive. People who value saves ain't exactly deep thinkers, and people who covet a "proven closer" tend to look no deeper than save percentage and possibly ERA, and those numbers make Dempster look very bad.
  9. frostwyrm
    Did anyone say it would be easy? I don't think anyone here did. I keep seeing projections with Dempster leaving and we only eat 2-4 mil. That sounds pretty damn easy to me. Can you imagine the heat a GM would take for that deal when Dempster flops again? A guy could get fired for that. Dempster at 3 mil per year for 2 years is hardly an albatross. His K's and walks were almost identical from '05 to '06, and he even gave up fewer line drives this year. There's plenty of reason to believe Dempster won't be terrible again next year. This type of fluctuation is why it was stupid to give him the contract in the first place, but you're really, really overstating how hard it would be to move him, especially when you consider the extra weight GM's give to relievers who "have the ability to close". What contender would want to start a season counting on Ryan Dempster to close? Why would a rebuilding team want him? And if he's not closing then he's just an enormously expensive middle reliever coming off a terrible year. Eyre and Howry only got a little more that $3M per year, and they were coming off great years.
  10. frostwyrm
    3/16 would be as high as I'd be willing to go with Juan, and with Pie on the way, I really don't want to go three years. I'd just offer him arbitration and take the picks that come with him. Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton offer the same skills as Pierre for fewer years and less money. 3/16 for Juan Pierre? I wouldn't even do 3/10.
  11. frostwyrm
    Did anyone say it would be easy? I don't think anyone here did. I keep seeing projections with Dempster leaving and we only eat 2-4 mil. That sounds pretty damn easy to me. Can you imagine the heat a GM would take for that deal when Dempster flops again? A guy could get fired for that.
  12. frostwyrm
    Plus $3.25M for Glendon.
  13. frostwyrm
    I keep seeing posts about moving Dempster, which apparently a lot of people think is going to be WAY easier than it's likely to be. My question is, if you were an opposing GM, what would you need from the Cubs to make you agree to take Dempster? The guy is owed another $10.5M. Personally I wouldn't touch him unless the Cubs ate $7M. There is no way in hell any sane GM would want to go to his owner and explain a multimillion annual salary for Dempster, even for one year. Forget about two.
  14. frostwyrm
    So, if I interpret it correctly, the formula assumes 48.6 wins(.300 ball) are a given, and form a baseline. I do agree with that assumption. I've always believed about 50 wins should be attainable by even the worst/unluckiest team and that such a record represents no measurable achievement.
  15. frostwyrm
    And he led the league in outs made by a wide margin. Doesn't that negate some of the singles? We have accurate formulas that assess the totality of offensive contributions. Pierre created about 90 runs in slightly less than 20 games. I'd offer him arb because I think he'd decline and I want the picks. But the production should not be hard to replace. Where is a leaderboard for outs? I haven't been able to find one. I found the one that has the outs champ for each season, but I would like to see a list of leaders and not just the champ.
  16. frostwyrm
    I'd blow the whole $23M on Zito and Soriano.
  17. frostwyrm

    Mark Prior

    frostwyrm replied to B's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    da muskat, I forgot to put the disclaimer. (Another awesome input from here from the mailbag when someone asked her why Murton didn't get an extended look at the 2 hole... she said he could work there but she prefers someone with more speed and the ability to bunt...) Holy Freaking Len! If the Cubs would learn that bunting with the number two hitter is a freaking waste, I'd be a happy man. Unfortunately it isn't going to happen. When Neifi was batting #2 bunting wasn't such a bad idea, but of course that was just symptomatic of Neifi not belonging at #2.
  18. frostwyrm
    While that may be true at the professional level, as a coach it kills me to read a statement like that. That's funny, because I know quite a few football coaches who always talk about wanting the talented kid as opposed to the hustling grinder type. It's obligatory to praise the hustling grinder, but I think a lot of coaches would love the opportunity to coach a phenomenal talent, even if he has some hustle issues. "Hustling grinder type" of limited talent, otherwise known as the 'Rudy'. Everyone loves a Rudy, but everyone also knows you only dress him for one game. But I still wish Aramis had a little more Rudy in him.
  19. frostwyrm
    Defensively Dunn's future is at 1B, and we have DLee there. I like his offense, but not so much that I'd want him in the OF longterm. Bear in mind his OF defense is only going to get worse as he ages. If DLee disappears or the NL institutes the DH rule then I'd look at Dunn.
  20. frostwyrm
    Find me a guy who is a hardcore defensive stat guy. If such a person exists I haven't met him/her.
  21. frostwyrm
    first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those. i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it. Signing Wood = $20 million bullpen. No thanks. I also don't believe we'll contend without major upgrades to the offense.
  22. frostwyrm
    Demp is owed another $10.5M over the next 2 years. Do you really think a GM will take on Demp's contract for $2M cash?
  23. frostwyrm
    Baker was not fired, he was allowed to serve the full duration of his contract. If the job was supposed to be his in perpetuity he should have had a liftetime contract instead of 4 years.
  24. frostwyrm
    I'd bump Zito to #3 and move Andruw below Soriano, otherwise everything unchanged.
  25. frostwyrm
    If Aramis leaves I wouldn't sign any fragile geezers like Nomar for 2007. I'd only acquire vets who could help us contend in 2008. Unfortunately Hendry has to field a contender in 2007 to save his job.
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