frostwyrm

So Hendry should be left wondering until March whether he should acquire a platoon partner for Jones? You sound like a guy who does his Christmas shopping on December 24th.

I've been saying for some time now that someone above Hendry should forbid him from signing any more multimillion dollar relievers. Not only would signing another expensive reliever be a misallocation of funds, but Hendry has a truly hideous track record with big-money relief contracts. And how many closing candidates does one team need? We have Dempster/Howry/Eyre/Wuertz, and people still want to spend a few mil more on Kerry Wood. Enough already.

This a pretty important issue IMO. If Lou states he's even considering a platoon Jones might ask for a trade. If Jones does stay a platoon would really help the offense. Anyone heard anything from Lou on this? Anyone care to speculate based on Lou's history? I don't know enough about him to guess what he'll do.

i have a feeling there is going to be a lot of peolpe proven wrong next season by Dempster when excels again with regular work. He is a converted starter who rusted away last season after a good first run as a closer and doing well as a reliver. Wuertz Eyre Howry Wood Dempster crazy good. Spending $20M on the bullpen is a serious misapplication of funds unless your overall budget looms around $200M. Basically, I can't find any way to believe that a bullpen represents more than 15% of any good team's value. Take the standard breakdown of the contributions into offense, defense, starting pitching & bullpen. How many you score is roughly 50% of the game (I've read some decent arguments that it represents slightly less than that, though). That leaves 50% to split amongst the pitching and the defense (components of preventing runs, of course). Let's be generous and say that pitching accounts for 40% of the 50%. The question that remains is the allocation of value between starting pitching and relief. Now, on a pure innings basis, starting pitching in baseball these days accounts for around 2/3 of the innings (a touch more than that, last I looked). So a straight division of the pitching value would put the relief core at 13%. Some would argue that number should be higher because dollars allocated to late inning relief can be used in higher leverage situations. But I would argue the opposite. ** warning -- gut feel, unsubstantiated claim alert ** My guess is that teams post a really good winning percentage in general if they 1) score first and 2) hold a two run or better lead coming out of the sixth inning. In other words, my claim is that more games are won and lost in the first six innings than in the last three. I wish I had more time to delve into this claim to find whether it is true or if I'm off on my thinking here. But to get back to the original point, there's no way I'd spend more than 10-13% of my budget on relief unless I was getting a WHOLE bunch of really cheap, really good production somewhere else. But another reason I wouldn't blow that percentage on the pen is that I think that's one of the easiest areas of the team to get some quality, cheap production. Oh yeah, and big money relievers are among the most unpredictable investments in the game. I think you're understating the wastefulness of an overpriced bullpen because you didn't include a discussion of closers. The closer is the most expensive reliever, but the nonsensical nature of the closer concept guarantees that a team will never ever get its money's worth from an expensive closer. As much as I like baseball, I'm always embarrassed to explain how closers are used and how much they are paid for what they contribute. The bullpen is the only part of a baseball team that has such a stunningly stupid and overpriced role built into it.

Not me. A $20M bullpen is inexcusable. Hey, I said a little less. Trust me, I'll still bitch.

Why is Lou Piniella only worth 3yrs/$9M when Dusty Baker was worth 4yrs/$14M? Has the market price for big name managers declined or was Dusty perceived as being that much better than Piniella?

Tickets are not sold based on managerial hires. At the risk of sounding snooty, I'll say the average ticketbuyer is somewhat less sophisticated than the average NSBB poster.

All just part of Hendry's misguided assumption that a big name manager can make the team better. Hendry has no plan or he's being told what to do. If this does happen I have to hope I'm pleasently surprised. Could be orders from above. I'm sure the beancounters don't mind spending $4-5M on a big name manager because it's a cost-effective way to put butts in the seats, but I really don't think Hendry needed his arm twisted to hire Lou.

Funny nobody has mentioned Lou's salary as an issue. I expect he'll make about what Dusty made: $4-5M. That's $4-5M that won't be spent on players.

A $115M payroll might make me bitch a little less about that $20M bullpen I keep hearing people asking for.

Me too. It pleases me to hear a GM of a division rival say "I'd give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts." that, and his idiotic bullpen trade give me hope that the cubs should be finishing ahead of the reds at least a few times over the next decade. Very Hendry-like, overemphasizing bullpen and putting the ball in play. They have a low payroll too. I'm glad I'm not a Reds fan.

Me too. It pleases me to hear a GM of a division rival say "I'd give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts."

I certainly would feel bad, because I already think it's very highly likely that Neifi returns midseason to back up glassbody Izturis. A walk off grand slam would virtually guarantee it.

Dunn is a good buy-low target for an AL team, or maybe an NL team that needs a 1B. I don't think the Cubs are a good fit for him.

Wow, for once I literally LOL'd. From the neck down he looks like some middle-aged dad at a fantasy baseball camp. Oops, I forgot, he has no neck.

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/2549/neifirc4.jpg I bet people in the stands mistook Neifi for a coach because he's built like an old man, what with the chicken legs and bulging gut.

What is Piniella's reputation regarding players loafing? I see some potential for tension between Lou/Aram.

If you want a productive CF just put Jones there and get him a platoon partner. That'd be a lot cheaper than Soriano.

Where did you find this data? Could you post a link to the exact page.

I really wanted Soriano but he's looking too expensive now. I'm getting sick of players having career years right before they hit free agency and getting absurdly bloated contracts.

This is what happens when your GM's job security is very tenuous. Only the safest options are explored.

Lou is not a brave choice, he's just the opposite. He is in fact the safest possible choice, which is why I predicted he'd be Hendry's favorite. Lou is the safest non-Girardi choice. Naw, Lou is safer. Girardi only managed one season and got fired. He's not officially proven yet. Lou's been around forever and had some good seasons.

Lou is not a brave choice, he's just the opposite. He is in fact the safest possible choice, which is why I predicted he'd be Hendry's favorite.

Mark my words, if Neifi gets a ring he's returning at the deadline to back up an ailing Izturis, who by that time will have been on the DL at least twice. Of course we could also be way out of contention by then.

It certainly looks like you were right. Could this be another piece of the Hendry M.O.? Hire a high-profile, well-known manager to take all the heat away from the poor personnel decisions. I think it's more a case of risk avoidance. Since Jim is on the hot seat he doesn't want his bosses to see him take a chance on anyone who's not a big name and "proven". If the team disappoints again Jim can say he got the most provenest manager on the market, so the choice of manager was not to blame. Also I just think Jim is a sucker for big names and big reputations.