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frostwyrm

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Everything posted by frostwyrm

  1. frostwyrm
    It's funny that I don't see anyone else lamenting Hendry's attempt to go from worst to first all in one offseason, and in a hideously unfavorable market. I really would have thought there would be some support for a retooling year.
  2. frostwyrm
    If we had a competent GM one of Marquis/Lilly would be replaced with Ricky Nolasco.
  3. frostwyrm
    You can always move starting pitching. Lilly, Miller, and Marquis aren't going to be blocking anyone that really deserves a spot. We'll have to eat $$ to move these guys. I just can't believe the market for mediocre pitchers will stay this high.
  4. frostwyrm
    Will there even be money to keep Z beyond 2007? It would be tragic if Z walks because we are carrying overpriced mediocrities Marquis and Lilly.
  5. frostwyrm
    We got stability from Shawn Estes in 2003.
  6. frostwyrm
    Yep. In this market all you have to do to get $10m/yr is not suck. If you do suck somewhat you might have to endure the shame of taking only $9m/yr.
  7. frostwyrm
    Too bad Nolasco is gone. He would have outproduced Marquis for $350K.
  8. frostwyrm
    This is what happens when you attempt an instant transformation from 66 wins to a World Series while in the most inflated market in the history of sports. Committing to one retooling year would have been infinitely preferrable to how this offseason has played out for the Cubs.
  9. frostwyrm
    GWU Colonial http://www.dailycolonial.com/art/2005/1/20/6.JPG http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/gewa/galleries/m-baskbl-011703/Georgedancing-lg.jpg
  10. frostwyrm
    http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&filter_teams=N&id=2028
  11. frostwyrm
    Giving 5/55 to Gil Meche is just plain crazy unless you feel Meche is the last piece of the puzzle for a 2007 WS.
  12. frostwyrm
    So we might see pitcher Soriano Izturis DLee Aram With that lineup we could set a record for solo home runs that would stand a very long time.
  13. frostwyrm
    Part of that is because of this year's playoffs. Mediocre pitching ruled. Next year it will be something else that gets a bounce. But Lilly can be more than a servicable 4 at his best. In his best seasons, he's been more than a servicable 4. In this market, if you make all your starts and are have at least average results, you will get paid. But that's partially because there are so few guys out there who make all their starts with average effectiveness and are free agents. Teams need 5 startings pitchers, and if guys get hurt, they need more. Hendry, coming off a year where they were starting guys who had no business on a 40 man roster, was desperate for people who could go close to 200 innings and be okay. But that's how Maddux was compensated the past two years. He was just a 200 IP guy who didn't suck, and he got $9m the last two years. MLB teams are willing to pay a premium to pitchers who make all their starts. In years past they've given huge deals to very talented guys who couldn't make all their starts. It's a constantly shifting market. I totally agree that durability was undervalued in starting pitchers for a long time and it was due for a price correction, but we're seeing way too big of a correction.
  14. frostwyrm
    Might take 5 years to get it done, hard to tell.
  15. frostwyrm
    Two things, I don't see why it would necessarily cost $175-200m just to field a respectable team. And, 8 years ago people would have said the same thing, only using $75-90m as the number. There have been a heck of a lot of mediocre starting pitchers who have signed for between 8 and 10 million in recent years. This is not completely out of the blue. Plus, baseball balances this out with how cheap young talent is. In football, draftees get 8 figure signings bonuses and count huge against the cap right away. In baseball, you have guys like John Lackey, who has been a good pitcher for 4+ years and has barely made $4 million. Not every team has to sign free agent $10m 4th starters. Some teams, like Oakland, will always be more efficient with their money. You are acting as if everybody is going to look like the Cubs. The Cubs are going to spend more than the vast majority of teams. We've seen mediocre pitchers get overpaid based on overly optimistic hunches about their upside, but Lilly is different. He's getting 4/40, and nobody expects him to be more than a serviceable #4 even in the 1st year of the deal. In this market, all you have to do get $10M per year is not suck.
  16. frostwyrm
    How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis? I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender. 1. Alex Rodriguez 25,680,727 2. Derek Jeter 20,600,000 3. Jason Giambi 20,428,571 4. Mike Mussina 19,000,000 5. Randy Johnson 15,661,427 6. Bobby Abreu 13,600,000 7. Johnny Damon 13,000,000 8. Hideki Matsui 13,000,000 9. Jorge Posada 12,000,000 10. Mariano Rivera 10,500,000 11. Carl Pavano 8,000,000 12. Kyle Farnsworth 5,416,667 13. Tanyon Sturtze 1,500,000 14. Mike Myers 1,150,000 15. Robinson Cano 381,100 16. Scott Proctor 353,675 17. Chien-Ming Wang 353,175 18. Andy Phillips 331,150 19. Wil Nieves 328,600 Total Team Salary: 198,662,180 When the Cubs have 10 guys on their roster making $10M per year, let me know and four guys making about $20M or more, let me know. Give it time. If this market holds up for 2 more years you're going to see an explosion of $10M+ salaries all over baseball.
  17. frostwyrm
    Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting. In other words: I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed. In other words: I can't afford even one retooling year, because my sorry ass will be fired if I don't produce a winner overnight.
  18. frostwyrm
    How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis? I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender. That's how expanding economies work. It wasn't that long ago that a $95 million payroll was considered obscene. Today, a $2 billion publicly traded company would be considered a small cap stock, that wasn't the case 10 years ago. If these prices persist for 2 more years I think we'll see greatly increased revenue sharing or a salary cap. It won't be acceptable to a have situation where it requires $175-200M just to field a respectable team, not unless small market teams get a whole lot of help.
  19. frostwyrm
    How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis? I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender.
  20. frostwyrm
    4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain! feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do. They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports. maybe it's the least favorable. From what I've read, a lot of people don't expect this to be a bubble that will burst in the future. Contracts are just going to keep going up. Plus, even if they sign someone like Lilly for 4 years, that's not a crippling contract. Soriano is the only one with a very long, very expensive deal. It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.
  21. frostwyrm
    4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain! feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do. They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports. I've yet to see anybody of Hampton's caliber get 100+ mil this offseason. Yeah, but we do have a soon-to-be 31 yr. old corner outfielder with a career .835 OPS, and he got $136 mil.
  22. frostwyrm
    4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain! feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do. They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.
  23. frostwyrm
    4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!
  24. frostwyrm
    Wow. Lilly, Schmidt, and Soriano, and likely some horribly overpriced replacement for Jones. Hendry obviously doesn't give a damn how much cash he ties up in contracts that will probably be millstones in 2 or 3 years.
  25. frostwyrm
    Only sense I can make of this is the Cubs are trying to increase EP's trade value by adding versatility to him. This would fit with Hendry's must-win-now-to-save-my job line of thinking. I have no doubt Hendry would sell the entire farm and probably his soul to win in 2007.
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