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neely crenshaw

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Everything posted by neely crenshaw

  1. neely crenshaw
    I know I mentioned Castro originally because Baez looked like the real deal. Of course nothing is a sure thing. I think they would be less likely to move Samardzija simply because we have so little pitching anywhere close to being ready but I do believe that with the holes we need to fill anything/anyone is movable. Obviously if guys like harper and trout were involved anyone is in play. Not to compare the two but one of my biggest criticisms of the previous administration was their unwillingness to trade any young prospects. At their peak what type of players could we have grabbed for guys like Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Brownlee, Christensen, Kelton, Dopriak,either Patterson, Pie, even Hee Sop Choy and Bobby Hill were top 25 prospects at one time. Yet for Hendry they were untouchable. Prospects especially young, low level minor league prospects may reach their highest value as trade bait rather than ever reaching the major leagues
  2. neely crenshaw
    I agree, but I still think the right deal could get anyone.
  3. neely crenshaw
    Not a bad bet but that 72.5 is scary, I can see them getting there but I also see them trading every asset that isn't nailed down also. There are just so many parts that don't seem to be part of the future, I think anyone except for Castro, Samardzija, Jackson and Rizzo could be dealt at anytime for prospects. It's even possible that someone knocks our socks off for some of them...especially castro. Not happening. Castro and Rizzo aren't going anywhere. Theo is especially attached to Rizzo. I'd be surprised if Shark did either. Jackson won't be traded in all likely, but not because he's untouchable, just because his value is at an all time low. Anyone else on the team could be a potential trade piece if they can bring back value. the only reason I mention castro is that baez looks for real and if someone sent us a great deal I'm sure they'd listen. Agreed on the others.
  4. neely crenshaw
    Not a bad bet but that 72.5 is scary, I can see them getting there but I also see them trading every asset that isn't nailed down also. There are just so many parts that don't seem to be part of the future, I think anyone except for Castro, Samardzija, Jackson and Rizzo could be dealt at anytime for prospects. It's even possible that someone knocks our socks off for some of them...especially castro.
  5. neely crenshaw
    So you're saying there's a chance.....
  6. neely crenshaw
    The true value in sports franchises comes when you sell them. I could see this being especially true of the cubs, being that they will hold their value without much on-field success. 10 years from now it wouldn't be crazy to have the price double for the team.
  7. neely crenshaw
    I think if this group is together all year, 74 wins is about right. 78 would mean a whole lot goes right or even better than hoped. If/when we sell off, we could a drop off (we lost 5 games off our pace last year), although I think we are probably a little closer to being able to fill those spots than we were last year. We look a little better on paper but Dempster and Maholm were absolute studs for us last season. Even though Jackson and others may look better on paper, I don't see anyone matching the stats of those two and we were still on pace to only 66 games when they were dealt. The only spot(on the staff) we should be better is number 5 starter, and for a struggling offensive team how many more wins does a better #5 get you?
  8. neely crenshaw
    Well when "we" start talking about wins for the cubs this season, do you think they will be sellers at the deadline? Just like last year I think it is a fore gone conclusion that any vets that can be moved, will be moved. If healthy Garza is gone, I'm sure they's love to move Marmol, Soriano and any of the pitchers that aren't Samardzija and Jackson. So like it or not, if that happens it will probably take quite a lot to keep us from pushing 100 losses again. There is absolutely no reason to keep an free agents unless we end up valuing the draft pick more than the trade haul.
  9. neely crenshaw
    I didn't say anything like that or at least I didn't mean it that way. I meant with the collection of talent they have, the injuries they are facing and the potential for a sell-off, 74 wins would be an accomplishment. I think to get to 78 wins almost every hope/question mark has to go our way-especially now missing garza and baker for a long stretch. Not saying we should be satisfied or happy but if things continue to go wrong, we could easily be back at 60 wins and that would really suck.
  10. neely crenshaw
    you gotta know the difference between sh*t and shinola.. you have hopefully improved 1 position (of) and at least at the start of the season your starting staff is worse, and your bullpen has one upgrade to the main players(fujikawa) and you are still facing the fact that there will be another sell-off at the deadline, then I would be a 3 games from .500 would be a great year.
  11. neely crenshaw
    If you look honestly 74 wins sounds about right. They have us scoring as many runs as Cincy did last year which seems like a stretch but with the potential trades and injuries 74 looks like a pretty good year. 78 would be a great year for this team.
  12. neely crenshaw
    people may be waiting to see if we are still mathematically in the race before buying tickets for the home opener...
  13. neely crenshaw
    Quite a few, but it was you each time. wrong again. I never, ever brought that up. I didn't even think it. I always said the deal made sense. We had a need and Colvin struggled here, Stewart struggled there, it was a solid deal. We took a gamble with very little risk and it hasn't worked out yet. The only thing I defended Colvin on was that it seemed posters have to down play what he did at Colorado in order to defend the deal. He had a nice year, good for him. It doesn't mean he would have done it here, nor does it change the need to make a deal for a 3b. People said he sucked, and was lucky, he was platooned, and he was playing in colorado..any excuse or statement to feel better about the trade. Colvin had a very, very solid year. His overall stats and his splits vs lefties were better than Rizzo's. It still doesn't mean we shouldn't have made the deal.
  14. neely crenshaw
    Not even. Keep in mind, for 2.5MM if he can be a serviceable 4th OF it's a win. Agreed. Same with stewart but how many times did we hear about Colvin when Stewart was bad and then hurt? I;m certainly not saying it would make sense only that it will/would happen. David- please look at my post up a few. I list 3 posts from this thread alone where people have predicted a mid 800 ops, which I again say was better than anyone last year. So when you say nobody has high expectations for him you'd be wrong. The truth is I think he'll be fine in the platoon. Just a little joke toward some posters, certainly not worth all this. I thought for sure I'd get more heat for not saying Rizzo going to put up HOF numbers than about this...
  15. neely crenshaw
    As I said the post was tongue in cheek. on the other hand there is a very good chance that if Schierholtz does not do well he will be a big topic at some time this summer and I guarantee someone would bring up Colvin. Even though it was a joke, it's a pretty solid prediction.
  16. neely crenshaw
    I called my shot, and my opinion was contested. Why does "calling your shot" or predicting 2013 have to be over the top positive.
  17. neely crenshaw
    actually tiger: Davell has the RF combo at an .825 ops cubs fan dave has a RF combo line of .275 31 and 107 since the lefty will get a majority of the at bats I'm guessing they would have schierholtz with at least this type of ops slide castro castro (who wants to know who possibly said he(schierholtz) was anything more than meh) called the RF combo formidable and then said schierholtz would drop an .826 ops, which again would be better than anyone on our team last year. So I would say that counts as better than meh...
  18. neely crenshaw
    Your parents dropped you on your head. You have no idea how to comprehend the general opinion of this board. After being here for entire decade I think I get this board and the general opinion dead on. If Schierholtz does what is being said, he will have a better ops than anyone did last year including Rizzo and Soriano. I would call that better than meh... If the tandem does what you call for, that would be our top position offensively. AND if you think no one mentions Colvin if Scheirholtz or even Stewart falters you are nuts! That's not a prediction that's a guarantee.
  19. neely crenshaw
    I don't think that anyone has ever accused Nate Schierholtz of being a savior. However, if he can hit around his .826 OPS vs. RHP and Hairston his .867 vs. LHP, that would equal one very nice bat for just under 5MM, and even if not, at the price, it's certainly worth it. It's tongue in cheek. A lot of people have very high expectations for him, and the platoon but not a savior. However if he doesn't turn out, they will distance themselves from those expectations AND there is no doubt that some will bring up Colvin...
  20. neely crenshaw
    rizzo is ok, but takes a slight step back...something around .265/25hrs stewart is stewart and not the one from 5 years ago castro is the castro of 2011 not 2012 (improved but still growing) Scheirholtz does not excel,catches the fans wrath for not being the savior and the undying love from this board is quickly forgotten. Many posters start calling for Colvin others will deny ever saying what a huge upgrade he was...
  21. neely crenshaw
    Samardzija is the only sub 4 era of our starters. 2 or 3 are dealt at/before the break (depending solely on health) Marmol is dealt giving way to fujikawa, who is decent
  22. neely crenshaw
    Soriano WARs as a Cub according to Fangraphs: 7, 4.1, 0, 3.2, 1.4, 4 Soriano WARs as a Cub according to B-R: 4.1, 1.9, -1.8, 0.6, -0.3, 1.8 He's never had a negative WAR as a Cub according to Fangraphs and has had a negative WAR in 2 out of 6 years as a Cub according to B-R. NOTE: That's not to say he's been a great player or anything like that. I was just refuting your assertion that he's been a negative WAR player since his first year with the Cubs. For the record. I was using B-R and my statement was used as a generalization to show that Soriano has been up and down as a cub. There isn't data(from either stat group) that says he will stay the same or go up. He was 4.1 year 1, the 3 years in the middle he toiled just above and just below 0, and then was very good last year. It's not a knock on him, but using either system he has been as high as a 7 and as low as 0 on fan graph. So the point is, should we plan on the war of 4 from last year, the 0 from 2009, or the 1.4 of 2011.
  23. neely crenshaw
    the bullpen isn't the same? To start: the closer is Marmol the 2 main set up guys are Camp and Russell. Add in Fujikawa, and that is the only main addition.Which I said. yes, Wood and Villanueva may be additions. It would seem like they will be used as a loogy and/or long relief. As far as wins and losses how much will that change things? We won't have to watch some of the garbage we saw last year, but if a long reliever is in, things have already gone bad. A loogy is facing 1 guy, and it may or may not be meaningful. So although the names have been changed, the guys that count look be the same. Fujikawa is the only guy that could have an impact on game outcomes. He provides depth if he works out, but if he isn't the closer, how many wins does that translate to? That's what I mean by pretty much the same.
  24. neely crenshaw
    Perhaps we are sheltered from what's good pitching also We have a potentially solid staff, a strength of a not very good club right now but don't confuse that with being a great staff.
  25. neely crenshaw
    I am not disappointed with how they did things. I think they took some solid chances without screwing things up for the future. We have that hole at 3rd. We don't know what our catchers will do, or actually which one it will be primarily We have 2 young kid we hope take the next step We have a "potentially" solid platoon in right but your better,more powerful, more proven hitter(Hairston) hits the minority of the time(vs lefties) Soriano was very good, but it's been a while since he has done that. He has been a -war guy pretty much since his 1st year here. Our bullpen is basically the same, save for the Fujikawa, who has never pitched in the major leagues. Not to mention Marmol's ability to be up and down! These may all or mostly all work out. I am simply saying that I am much more worried about these possibilities than the 25th man.
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